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Michael McGaughy

Michael McGaughy

Head of Research and Portfolio Manager at Fusion Wealth Management in Hong Kong, running the Research Alpha fund; regular finance commentator and podcast guest.

Oct 2, 2026

JamesHOST
10:22
So just, just give us an overview of that and how that works.
10:25
You know, we talked, I talked a little...
10:26
We started the conversation off talking about Indonesia during the Asian financial crisis, and as I mentioned before, I was their analyst in Indonesia in the early 1990s.
10:36
Uh, and what I'd noticed in looking back, uh, 20 years after the Asian financial crisis is what worked and what didn't work in Indonesia was that the companies or the groups that were managed by really good people with a good managers had a good reputation, um, where you had a structure that aligned minority and majority shareholder interests, and where everything was trading at huge valuations.
10:57
But when you put those three together, you got outside returns.
11:01
And so I don't know if you, uh, we can link to the sh- to show notes on your, uh, on this or on the wherever you post it or, or where you post it.
11:09
Um, but I'll, I'll give you a link to a blog I wrote about where I compared two business groups, one who, uh, w- who we knew was very good and one who we didn't have or did, that did not have a good reputation.

34 MINS LATER

JamesHOST
44:58
[laughs]
26:17
Is that where we should be looking rather than the developed markets, which start to look unattractive compared to 10-year and 30-year bonds? As you say, we've got much lower PEs, much more attractive earnings yields.
26:31
Well, it's not so much that I look specifically at emerging and frontier markets.
26:35
That's what I'm saying is that's where I'm finding value now.
26:39
So you have a place like Nigeria that's gone down by the market still, even though the market's, I think, tripled since its bottom.
26:47
It's down 70 percent from its 2008 peak in U.S. dollar terms.
26:52
So when you're down 70%, you could almost triple to get back up to where you were previously.
26:58
And that's a pretty good risk reward.
29:24
There's a very interesting IPO going on there, isn't there? Africa's biggest ever IPO is ongoing, which is sort of highlighting maybe the attractions of these markets at the moment.
18:31
um
18:32
it's interesting when you said when francis was talking i was thinking that what i'm doing is delightfully boring um you know a lot of people would say a lot of people were saying i don't want to invest in an emerging or frontier market because i don't want the volatility uh and we have a lot less volatility at least currently now than what uh what francis was describing or what you're getting in the semiconductor stocks in fact if we do have any volatility But 31% of the biggest index, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the EMM ETF, I think 31% of that or the high 20s is just the three stocks, the Hydex, the Samsung and the TSMC.
19:12
And that kind of brings up another thing about the nonsense of the whole situation is that here you have the most advanced companies in the world being included in the emerging markets, being a big weight of the emerging markets index.
19:25
Whereas Turkey, which I mentioned before, the index providers are threatening to kick it out of the EMM index.
19:33
And it's only about 0.2%, 4%, 0.4% of that index.
19:40
So, yeah, I mean, if you don't want less, we haven't had that volatility in our stocks ever since I've been with the fund.
19:47
And that's been about nine years.

14 MINS LATER

34:06
Where are you seeing value? What are you looking at at the moment while we have all this volatility going on and all this uncertainty with the war, with AI spending, with the Fed?

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