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Michael A. Bailey

Michael A. Bailey

Professor of Political Science

Oct 1, 2026

5:35
How did that problem show up in this cycle? Did the pollster handle it better or worse than- The last three elections now, 2016, 2020, 2024, every election we see this problem persistent.
5:46
Yeah, I mean, basically, as you alluded to, the, the polling paradigm of calling 1,000 people, they all answer, and then you ask them who they're gonna vote for, that, like, is amazing.
5:56
It's amazing powerful, uh, amazingly powerful, as everyone knows.
5:59
It's unbiased, and we can exactly characterize, uh, the degrees of confidence about it.
6:04
We are light, light, light, light years away from that.
6:07
You know, maybe one pollster at The New York Times tries to do that, but again, as you guys know, they're getting 1% response rate, and they're on the high end [chuckles] of things.
6:16
And, by the way, like, the, um-- and this will get in as we talk more about weighting.

6 MINS LATER

12:16
So these things can change over time, and we need to tell people that we are capturing part of that dynamic and that it's g- ongoing, and that's part of the story.

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