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Matt Witheiler

Matt Witheiler

Aug 28, 2026

16:55
Um, I wonder, uh, how you feel about that and also as somebody who's been investing for a while, um, how prior market cycles or innovation cycles, uh, from the internet to various, uh, cloud, cloud, mobile, et cetera, um, educate the way in which you think about the, the, the ways in which the, the, this may continue to evolve.
17:17
I mean, we're, we're, we're living, we as a, uh, uh, investor class are living through market whiplash every single day when it comes to, to AI.
17:27
Um, it's, it goes from very, very bullish to very bearish to very bullish in very rapid succession.
17:35
Um, and so I think as an investor you need to think about, okay, what is your anchor? Like, what, what are you thinking about not where the waves are, but where will you be stationed across a, across a horizon? And I think, I believe that, that the, the, the fundamental anchor is AI is a transformational technology that is resulting in ROI positive spend.
18:01
And if you take that point of view, you take the point of view of, yeah, there'll be cycles, even very rapid cycles where the market is up, the market is down with respect to AI and technology, um, and that's okay because we're not taking a- Two-week view or a two-month view, we're taking a five, 10, and perhaps maybe 20-plus year view.
18:23
And I think with respect to AI, we believe that the long-term view, that anchor point, is that AI does represent a transformational technology shift, and that it will continue to accrete value over time, even though there may be this near-term whiplash around where the market is, is perceiving AI to be and where the, uh, the, the momentum may go going forward.
18:48
And with respect to kind of thinking through other cycles, I was an entrepreneur during the dot-com days, which was a blast.
21:48
Uh, talk a bit, bit about how you, uh, help them shape that evolution to ensure that they are hitting the ground running once the white hot lights of the public market are fixed on them.
19:06
But do you have any concern at all that perhaps those growth rates are slowing a bit, even though they're still historic, and that that could contribute perhaps to a lack of investor enthusiasm?
19:17
I do not have that concern.
19:19
And I think the reason why is twofold.
19:21
One is, even if they are slowing, we're talking about, to your point, slowing from absolutely phenomenal growth rates to maybe just phenomenal growth rates.
19:30
I mean, we're talking about unprecedented growth.
19:32
I think you all reported that Anthropic eclipsed $65 billion of annualized revenue run rate in July.
19:40
And for reference, they started the year and have reported at $9 billion of ARR.
21:33
For security reasons or cost or efficiency reasons?
22:46
What do you make of what we've seen with SpaceX so far and just the overall IPO market?
22:52
I mean, I think SpaceX is really a seminal event when it comes to IPOs of private companies.
22:58
And the reason I say that is we have now in the public market a $2.1 trillion public company that went from $0 of enterprise value to $2.1 trillion of market cap all in the private market.
23:11
And so I think the implications of that are, one, this narrative of everything in the private market is overvalued, is kind of put to bed to some degree.
23:22
And two, that this value creation opportunity that used to exist in the public markets has now been captured in some part by the private markets.
23:52
How much of what we've seen with SpaceX can be extrapolated to some of the other massive private companies that are waiting in the wings?
23:59
I think the performance of SpaceX suggests that you can have large companies go public at market caps that didn't used to be possible.
24:07
But I also think part of SpaceX is Elon Magic Dust, which he has the unique opportunity and ability to convince the world that he can execute on a future that doesn't exist.
3:49
Where's the demand coming from?
3:51
It's coming from the fact that hypergrowth companies are staying private longer, and if you look at the impact that we have seen in the public market as a result of this, if you exclude the AI specific companies in the public market, you take out the memory companies, you take out the neo clouds, you take out the segment of the public market that is growing very fast, and you look broadly at technology absent those names, the number is four public companies that are forecasting and have consensus forward revenue growth of thirty percent or more year over year.
4:27
If you would've looked at that maybe even as recently as five or six years ago, the number of companies that would be forecasting north of thirty percent growth would've been at least ten X that.
4:39
And so the fact of the matter is, as companies stay private longer, an increasing amount of growth is only available in the private markets today.
4:46
And when these names, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, et cetera, ultimately come out, they will be a growth story for a public investor who has really struggled to get growth except in AI infrastructure names.
5:00
And I think that's true for both the public investors on the institutional side, the Wellingtons of the world.
5:06
I also think it's true for the retail investors because I think the retail investors are looking at, "How do I get exposure to these trends and to this growth without having to go buy a semiconductor play?"

15 MINS LATER

20:17
How does that work?
30:15
How do you- how are you telling your friends around a dinner party right now? [laughs]
30:18
Yeah, no, I think it's a great question.
30:19
Obviously, sitting inside of Wellington, we have the benefit of seeing the full picture of what's going on in the public market versus what happens in the private market, and there definitely are instances where these SPVs may come into the private companies, and even the companies themselves aren't sure who's actually buying pieces of their shares.
30:37
And I think what an interesting trend has been recently is we have seen the more in-demand companies really clamping down on the number of SPVs and the ability for SPVs to come into their financings.
30:50
Because they know in the private markets, they get to choose who goes on their cap table.
30:53
They get to decide who's-- they're gonna let invest.
30:56
When they go public, anybody can buy their shares, and so the companies on the private side are really starting to clamp down on, "Who am I comfortable with coming into my cap table via an SPV?"
32:00
Matt, what's Wellington gonna do in the late stage space for the balance of this year? Like, w- with, with the context of all that environment that, that, that's going on, what's the strategy?

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