But what is grabbing your attention when you were looking at this Packers or Patriots offense versus this Packers defense, Matt?

I think this is a great litmus test game for the New England Patriots offense, which we talked about them yesterday.

These are their weekly finishes in my offensive efficiency score metric.

27th, 18th, 26th, first three weeks of the season.

From then on, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 16th, 14th.

Look, I know the S word is a little bit of a soft spot for the New England Patriots fan base and everything, but obviously the schedule really matters there, and it's part of why they struggled in the first three weeks of the season because they faced the Seahawks, they faced the Pittsburgh Steelers, they faced the Jacksonville Jaguars, who, by the way, rank...

Fourth, fifth, and sixth in EPA allowed on defense, Jacksonville, Seattle, Pittsburgh, in that order.

unscrewed themselves for the most part and then the bears are looking like a wagon right now and thank goodness i'm on record saying they look like a contender before that simmons trade but they sure do look like it now but we'll start with when the bucks have the football the bucks are on offense against this bears defense what are you checking out matt harman

But what is grabbing your attention when you were looking at this Packers or Patriots offense versus this Packers defense, Matt?

I think this is a great litmus test game for the New England Patriots offense, which we talked about them yesterday.

These are their weekly finishes in my offensive efficiency score metric.

27th, 18th, 26th, first three weeks of the season.

From then on, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 16th, 14th.

Look, I know the S word is a little bit of a soft spot for the New England Patriots fan base and everything, but obviously the schedule really matters there, and it's part of why they struggled in the first three weeks of the season because they faced the Seahawks, they faced the Pittsburgh Steelers, they faced the Jacksonville Jaguars, who, by the way, rank...

Fourth, fifth, and sixth in EPA allowed on defense, Jacksonville, Seattle, Pittsburgh, in that order.

unscrewed themselves for the most part and then the bears are looking like a wagon right now and thank goodness i'm on record saying they look like a contender before that simmons trade but they sure do look like it now but we'll start with when the bucks have the football the bucks are on offense against this bears defense what are you checking out matt harman

Let's work.

I think this is a really good point by you, and I think there's something to your theory here because, I mean, even just the last two weeks alone, Mekhi Lemon has had a drop in back-to-back weeks.

And Mekhi Lemon, let me tell you guys, great hands, all right? Like, this is a guy who has great hands, pristine, like, attacking the football, always good technique.

And he had one – This in this game against the commanders where he to your point, he got the hands up early.

And so then at that point, like he's he's starting to squeeze it when he thinks that ball is going to arrive and it just kind of clanks off of his hands.

And then the other one in the game before that.

He has to go back across his body to the ball, and he probably should still catch it, but the pass is behind him because McKee's taking forever to get that thing out.

Come

There's a lot more to talk about here, but I give you the floor on Parker Washington this passing game.

Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of things working against Parker Washington here in the fact that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 players got a target for this Jacksonville Jaguars team.

And, you know, by the way, Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback in the NFL this year throwing over the middle of the field to all of these guys.

Like the 10 to 20 air yards, he has been awesome.

He's been super willing to throw there.

He's been the best quarterback in the NFL throwing those passes this season.

So...

And it's like so easy to get rid of Justin Jefferson unless he's like making these crazy acrobatic plays.

It

just keeps going up.

Basically...

The Vikings believe that you rush five.

Like, that's normal.

Everything beyond that is up for debate at that point.

That's how this team goes here.

Did anything look better? Did anything look right? Did they look like they practiced at all during the last 14 days?

Initial takeaways here, Matt, of this huge, huge trade.

Yeah.

What a clean transition into the week.

I mean, this was already probably the best matchup on the board.

And now it gets even more interesting with these two guys involved here.

Two guys that have obviously a ton of history together, too, because they're coming from the same division.

Like these guys have matched up forever.

But Vikings offense, Lions defense, what are you focusing on, Matt?

Initial takeaways here, Matt, of this huge, huge trade.

Yeah, what a clean transition into the week.

I mean, this was already probably the best matchup on the board, and now it gets even more interesting with these two guys involved here.

Two guys that have obviously a ton of history together, too, because they're coming from the same division.

These guys have matched up forever.

I posted...

Jeffrey Simmons alignment, you know, in terms of how often he's on the defensive right side versus left side.

But Vikings offense, Lions defense, what are you focusing on, Matt? I

What have you seen and what did you see when going back and reviewing the Makai Lemon tape?

The reality for Lemon, and I agree, I thought this was one of the better Mannion games.

Thought it during the broadcast, felt it watching back on film.

The reality is just like this is like a preseason roster right now.

It's more akin to like a dynasty roster that somebody abandoned years ago, like the wide receiver room with Marquise Brown and Elijah Moore and Darius Cooper and even the backfield, like Damian Pierce and Elijah Mitchell.

These were guys we were kind of sickly excited about in 2022 or whatever.

So true.

And hopefully like Roman dunes, they can tag along with them.

What is your confidence meter in him continuing this level of production?

Yeah.

Man, Casey is a stud.

And this is a game that I think has been building for a long time here.

Your former colleague, two-time former colleague for me, both at NFL Network and at Yahoo, Andrew Siciliano, and friend, legit friend, said he had this on Twitter today.

He does the Browns radio as well.

Casey Concepcion had a career-high 129 yards receiving experience.

And he's figuring out ways to get the most out of his quarterback.

Talk me through this game.

A very both things can be true sentiment there on that one.

Yeah, I'll say, too, for the Dolphins fans, I think we shortchanged this game, having it so deep in the outline here.

This is a pretty good fantasy game.

Pretty good game overall.

50 total points.

A lot of things to shout out here on the Dolphins side of it.

Why didn't this work?

What else you got? Sorry.

Some little pet projects definitely there for me.

But we'll get back to that.

The main event, though, obviously, is Kenneth Walker Revenge Game.

And listen, sometimes the revenge game stuff is...

Nonsense.

I kind of think he wants to come in here and have a big game against the team that pretty much just said, thanks for winning us that Super Bowl, Super Bowl MVP.

And I think both sides of the ball are going to have their moments.

What else you got?

Sorry.

Some little pet projects definitely there for me.

But we'll get back to that.

The main event, though, obviously, is Kenneth Walker Revenge Game.

And listen, sometimes the Revenge Game stuff is...

Nonsense.

um so yeah i i really don't have like hey i'm focusing on this this is good on good these are andy reed and his often eric b enemy all these guys uh andy heck the offensive line coach are going against mike mcdonald who's one of the best if not the best coming off a mini buy also coming off a mini buy who's one of the best game planners so this is this is awesome this is this is the good stuff right here and i think both sides of the ball are going to have their moments

Like a decade

... it's, it's when...

I mean, it's way too, way too long.

[laughs] Way too...

Literally, the, the article I wrote, uh, for BYB was actually in 2016, so yes, you're correct.

It, it w- it has been a decade.

Um, but, uh, a lot...

Okay

in, in fantasy, man.

[laughs] Well, let's talk about- The other thing too, just real, real, real quick, Josh- ... you know, the Saquon Barkley, Ken- Kenneth Walker teams.

Yeah, go ahead.

[laughs] You got one, you got, you got, you've kinda got like one and a half running backs out of Kenneth Walker, so you can, you can look at it, uh, that way.

Yep.

Um, I, uh, just sh- should be noted too, offensive line in this one dealt with a lot of injuries as well, so that's like another feather in the cap [laughs] of Kenneth Walker.

Obviously we know about the left tackle, Josh Simmons is not- hasn't played yet.

That's, that's a win.

[laughs]

... you get Kevin Zeidler in there, you talked, we, we talked about this on the forecast a couple of weeks ago where it's just, it's obviously putting band-aids on a bullet wound, but at least there's some band-aids here.

You know? And I think they've kind of stopped the bleeding with some of these veteran offensive linemen in the mix now, and I thought the run game had a little bit more push to it against, uh, Chicago.

Also, you know, Marshawn Lloyd has barely played any football, so it's pretty fair to lower the expectations on what he's gonna look like, 'cause I think he looked pretty brutal in the first few weeks of the season.

But I will say, last week, watching that game on Sunday, and then i- I think it was true reviewing it on tape too, I thought he sh- ran with a lot more patience, and actually like finished some of his runs with true like power and intention, which is nice to see for a player that's of his archetype that is probably more of a space back movement, all that.

I'm buying time until we can talk about the passing game, because obviously that's the thing that's most exciting, but these are the parts of the offense where we know the passing game is gonna be exciting.

Like, we know Jordan Love bombs it.

Yeah.

So I think they're going to have their way, even if the run game is just average or slightly below average.

Unlike previous seasons, this is one of the most concentrated receiving rooms in the NFL.

70.6% of the air yards go to Matthew Golden, who leads the team in air yards and targets, by the way, and Christian Watson.

Whereas in previous years, it was all spread out.

So essentially 70.6% of the air yards.

Which you love.

That is...

Great point.

Uh, this is why, well, part of it, that he's, you know, the running back, what, five or six in points per game on the season so far? Just a spectacular season from Kyren, who's kind of leveled up his game this year.

Yeah, and you would've thought, or at least you could tell yourself a story that some of the passing game usage for him was because Puka Nacua's not out there playing.

He was averaging 4.04 air yards per target coming into the game on Monday night.

He doesn't leave with a ton of air yards, .13 air yards per target, but still it's a ton of the same, like, angle routes out of the backfield.

That was still present, while also Puka Nacua gets 24 targets in a freaking football game, which is absolutely outrageous.

Um, not even the first time in his career, by the way, that he's had 20-plus targets.

Uh, one of the first games of in his NFL career in 2023 against the 49ers, he had 20 targets.

Harvey dominated the workload in week four, and then J.K. Dobbins dominated the workload in week five, and then we don't know what's gonna happen and who dominates the workload once Jonah Coleman comes back because Sean Payton loved talking about Jonah Coleman this off-season too.

Wow

... two Darnold interceptions, a Purdy interception.

George Kittle only he lost two fumble, or he, he fumbled twice.

He lost one of them.

Emmanuel Wilson fumbled.

Jacob Cowing fumbled.

Deebo Samuel f- lost a fumble, where he also popped his hammy and was done for the day.

I ask this question every week, but Matt, what did we learn in Week Five?

[laughs]

... prime David Johnson? He was like four, uh, air yards per target.

To put it into perspective, these are the other top running back.

These are the only guys that are over, um, over point, like 1.0, uh, that also have double digit targets.

Jahmyr Gibbs 2.1, Christian McCaffrey 1.95, Ashton Jeanty 1.6, uh, and then yeah, Rashad White, uh, he has nine targets so he doesn't count, but 1.0.

I mean, the, that, that's it.

Those are the only guys that are over 1.0, and Kyren Williams is at 4.04, and you go back and watch it, it's, you could tell they kind of got into it in week three.

The Colts

with when the bills have the football the rams are three-point favorites at home the over under is 54 and a half true true uh all right but bills on offense here against this rams defense what do you got for this one i this is going to be another fun really fun matchup and a good proving ground for really the rams you know favorites going to the year bills we're getting some contender talk as well we'll get to that bill's defense in just a sec but what do you think about this side of the ball

So, yeah, I think when – this is a big proving ground game for Joe Brady to me because I really liked what I saw the first two weeks, and then they've kind of gotten away from some of that stuff.

Now, DJ Moore hasn't been healthy, which I think is a big problem for this team, and I would guess he doesn't play in this game.

And then you get back into kind of the same old receiver problem that they had, which is why they went and traded for Josh – or they traded for DJ Moore.

Now, that being said – I think this is a game where the Rams are one of the highest teams in terms of dime percentage.

They want to get all those DBs out on the field.

The bills in the first two weeks of the season were so heavy in the 13 personnel in these heavy personnel packages.

But thoughts for this game or thoughts on the trade? Maybe that's just kind of our talking point for a seven and a half point spread game.

Yeah.

Uh, the route against press man coverage against Deontay Banks, which is maybe not what you want to see.

But yeah, the out cut, the 24 yard, uh, sail off play action, that was great.

Uh, that, that's what he does really well at the top of the routes on the breaks there.

I also think what's been interesting too is this, I thought this Cardinals team would be very heavy and condensed.

Uh, their rate of heavy plays is actually down this year.

They're pretty spread out.

Yeah

The Todd Heather

... of his entire life, which has been un- like for a guy who I thought had some of the best hands I've ever evaluated, his lack of being able to finish at the catch point has been no doubt extremely frustrating and really has not endeared himself to, to B- to Bears fans, that's for sure.

But what we saw, again, in that game and then in this game in particular, like he's truly at a area where he's just almost uncoverable on some of these breaking routes.

And you said like the deep post.

There are some crossers in here.

Uh, some in break, like an out-breaking route that I thought he was fantastic on, and he really is just such a good separator in that particular area, which is where Ben Johnson wants to hunt for these explosives in the passing game.

Now, obviously there are a lot of other bodies here, and he for sure, he got like one, uh, like screen target behind the line of scrimmage, which was nice to see because he almost gets none of those little layups in the offense, whereas everybody else kind of does, whether it's Raymond, whether it's Burton, whether it's Colson Loveland even a little bit who got going in this game.

Yeah.

Mm

... of the injuries to both teams.

Um, Pat Surtain injured right before the half, non-contact injury.

Um, Riley Moss left the game with a rib injury as well.

Pat Surtain, that looked like a pretty serious knee injury, but they called it, um, a- an ankle injury.

By the way, it came on the longest play to date.

Kyle Juszczyk, ankle injury, too.

... how he envisions his backfield, and he said, uh, "We think it's best for our team." Was it best for their team?

Yeah, yeah

...

I think is a big part.

Like, that's, that's really nice.

Um, they're a huge, like I've mentioned, and we're gonna do a show on this with the fantasy side of it, um, next, uh, week, where we're doing, like, a f- quarter ecosystem check using the static score, which I talked about with, on that show with you previously.

They're a 21-spot improvement from, uh, that, from last season in terms of that, and a lot of that is because, you know, they don't motion at the snap as much, but they're, like, 15th in motion, seventh in play action, heavy personnel, they're 14th.

Those are all big changes, so they aren't really just that aga- the, the s- the spread world where it's these quick hitters, RPOs, stuff like that.

So I'm curious what your cheat sheet item was for this game, Matt.

Yeah, yeah

...

I think is a big part of, like, that's, that's really nice.

Um, they're a huge, like I've mentioned, and we're gonna do a show on this with the fantasy side of it, um, next, uh, week, where we're doing, like, a f- quarter ecosystem check using the static score, which I talked about with, on that show with you previously.

They're a 21-spot improvement from, uh, that, from last season in terms of that, and a lot of that is because, you know, they don't motion at the snap as much, but they're, like, 15th in motion, seventh in play action, heavy personnel, they're 14th.

Those are all big changes, so they aren't really just that aga- the, the s- the spread world where it's these quick hitters, RPOs, stuff like that.

And you mentioned, like, how the...

So I'm curious what your cheat sheet item was for this game, Matt.