You know, is this fund liquidation or just harvest pressure at this point?

You know, I think on the soybean side of things, you're probably looking at a little bit of both.

There's no doubt there's a lot of beans being harvested at this point.

And I've got to think that growers feel a little bit, well, maybe more bearish on beans.

Maybe they do corn.

I think most of the anecdotal evidence shows you that this bean crop probably has a much better chance of getting bigger than, for instance, a corn crop.

And given the price that we're able to sell these beans out of the field, I think a lot of growers are just saying, hey, I'm going to go ahead and take us up on this and, you know, turn some of these things into cash.

The sad part is, is in the case of both corn and soybeans, we did stimulate some pretty good demand when we got down to these low levels, right?

welcome to markets now i'm michelle rook with matt bennett of ag market we did see lower grains on friday with livestock to the plus side and not the best week matt let's start off with soybeans some new lows for the move on friday and of course we took out the 50-day moving average and i think the report day low so is this harvest pressure the funds just getting out

I think it's a little bit of both.

I do think if you were going to pick one of the two, beans are probably getting sold out of the field to a greater degree than what corn would be getting sold out of the field.

I think a lot of that has to do with what most people feel is a big bean crop or even one that's growing, for instance, one that you can see USDA maybe raise yields, whereas on corn, I think people feel a little bit differently.

But Uh, we've also got to assume the funds are stepping in here, selling these beans.

I mean, there just wasn't a whole lot good going for the bean market this week.

Of course, crush comes in, uh, well below what everyone thought, but you've got to remember, you know, a lot of these crushers couldn't even get ahold of beans, you know, especially, uh, farther West that you went.

Was that also about higher cash, though?

And Matt, what did you think of the latest harvest progress numbers that we got this week?

Yeah, I mean, we were clearly behind, you know, on the versus a five-year pace.

I mean, and that's not a big secret, especially when you've got so much, you know, production congregated in that Iowa corridor where people had to sit for so long.

I've got to assume we'll catch up to the five-year pace maybe this next Monday.

It's just my assumption.

It is concerning whenever you see longer-term forecasts, you know, try to creep some moisture in.

But We also know that growers are able to get over stuff pretty quickly these days.

So Matt, is that just the result of basically what was several weeks in a row of kind of some negative news headlines, some negative momentum for the cattle side? Is this just it swinging back the other way?

What'd you think of the marketplace today?

Well, you know, whenever you look, uh, there's no question that, um, uh, there's a few things working against the bean market, you know.

Uh, crush was not good.

It, it came well under expectations, uh, under 200, you know.

You, you look at, uh, harvest activity, of course in a, a big part of the Corn Belt, uh, has been a little more brisk, I believe, for soybeans than corn.

I mean, both corn and beans are below the five-year averages, but you've gotta assume that, uh, you're getting caught up on that.

Overall, you know, it's really tough to see the market rally, uh, when you're in the thick of harvest, and so, you know, uh, you've gotta hope, uh, whenever you look at these markets that, you know, you can get some of these moving averages to hold.

When you look forward, do you see this market recovering into the month of November at some point?

We're talking to economists to track down where the change came from.

I can accept that Nebraska, you know, would go up.

Matt Bennett with agmarket.net says the numbers have to be believed once they hit the market.

Number that's printed is the number that the algorithms trade.

It clearly changes the trajectory of everything that we've thought for some time.

Uh, what do you think about the central Corn Belt? This USDA, are they close there?

I mean, my, my biggest, uh, I guess, opinion on this is Illinois.

Y- there is really good corn in parts of Illinois, for sure.

There are some areas in Illinois that people are, I mean, drastically lower than what they were a year ago.

Uh, there, y- you know, all of the rainfall, and you know I've talked about this for a couple months really, uh, all the rainfall, the excessive moisture for an extended period of time essentially lost, uh, nitrogen for people.

I mean, that's all there is to it.

And it's not something that you figure out, uh, right away.

Um, how do you feel about the balance sheets in total given what we now know about supply and also what USDA thinks they know about demand?

In your opinion right now, with what we've been hearing about grain quality issues, how much is that going to affect things overall?

I mean, that's the biggest question is, you know, whenever you look at grain quality, there's no doubt that it's probably going to have as big of an impact on the grower trying to sell that as anybody.

I mean, the problem, of course, is that you might have the same type of volume USDA is talking, but that's not the same dollars in the grower's pocket.

So there's definitely going to be a lot to navigate here for those that have unfortunately just been inundated with a wet harvest type pattern.

it could be problematic for them moving forward.

Insurance policies will cover them to a degree, but from what we've heard with most policies, you know, you got to get to like a 10% damage type situation before they kick in.

So it'd be very interesting to see how it plays out.

side of the trade today?

Ear weight's up, you mean

meanYeah, yeah ear weights, ear weights, uh, ear counts down.

So one of the hottest Julys that we've ever, that we've had in years, I mean, is, is definitely an interesting time for ear weights to be there.

Now, whenever I look at our state, okay, I look at Illinois, and some of the biggest producing counties in the state, you know, McLean County, biggest corn producing county in the country, uh, many times.

You look at that and it, and it's problematic.

The Pro Farmer Tour saw it.

It's something we talked about way too much rain in the month of June, and then you came in here and you didn't necessarily give it what the crop needed in the month of July.

Do they continue to head for the door now because of what I just said?

The, the data says it's, it's record high, but all of these, like, hidden loans, is that something people should be worried about?

Uh, yeah, I mean, you know, it, it reminds me of the, the conversation as far as credit cards go, you know? [laughs] I mean, credit card debt is just massive.

And, and people trying to find, uh, money to, to accomplish the things that they're trying to accomplish.

As far as the farm goes, I think one thing, you know, my son actually is in, uh, farm fan- finance for, you know, an ag chem retailer.

You know, one thing that he's come across of course is, you know, um, uh, people who are borrowing from a variety of different sources and, you know, uh, the hope is that people are always, uh, financing a piece of equipment only at one place, you know? And that the- they're not also, uh, going somewhere else, or the bank.

Uh, but there's no question that to, to be able to farm the way people wanna farm right now, it's very capital intensive, you know? And, and the farmer, I think overall, is very, uh, optimistic about the future.

Uh, we're gonna grow, uh, we're gonna get better, uh, we're gonna make good money again next year, or hopefully next year after three years of not making good money.

Mm-hmm.

Crops remain average to better than average? Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, what we found is that our best ground, even with pattern tile systems, you know, the tile systems really had a hard time keeping up in June.

The best corn was some of the best corn we'd ever picked.

And in the same field, you know, of course, we had some stuff that was really, really impacted by it.

water, nitrogen loss, you name it.

You know, so to be honest, I think our best stuff relative to normal was, again, our lighter ground this year.

Anything that was able to get rid of some water, boy, it really performed well.

What are you hearing from other producers across the Midwest?

Are you at all surprised by that?

No, I'm not, you know, because the problem, uh, of course this time of year, you know, you're talking to your, your fertilizer guy and saying, "Hey, you know, I, I don't know for sure what I wanna do." I mean, in the past, whenever you're making money, a lot of people in this part of the world, it's like 250 and 250, what's the price we're gonna put it on? Uh, it's a little different this time around, you know? I mean, we've got a couple, three straight years of fertilizer costs continuing to go higher.

Uh, at the same time, you know, December '27 corn futures have slipped somewhat.

Nothing major, uh, but the problem is, obviously, you know you're gonna have a, a ton of money wrapped up in this crop.

And so, uh, you know, if market's going higher, and it's going higher whenever this survey is put out, people are probably gonna have a little bit better sentiment.

[laughs] You know, but the problem is whenever it kinda stalls out, uh, but you know your input costs are still high...

I mean, the other thing I think that kinda plays into this, of course, fuel costs.

Right

And yields running pretty good.

Yeah.

I mean, yields are good.

Not great.

I mean, you hear that a lot in Illinois, especially, you know, I would say APH or below for a lot of folks.

You know, being above APH this year in this part of the world is a little less common.

And I think a lot of it is just due to the excessive rainfall in the spring, nitrogen loss, if you will, ponding, you name it.

How encouraged were you that we closed Novi Beans back above 13 and corn back above 5 on the nearby?

First off, what have you heard about, uh, potential yield and quali- qua- quality losses due to the excessive rain that we've seen over the past week and a half or so?

Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt that you're going to have some quality issues.

Uh, you know, when you start talking quality, soybeans, to be honest, I mean, there's a lot of folks talking, not just in Iowa, but, uh, these beans this year have got a little bit of a different look to them.

I don't know if it was the hot July, even ours in Central Illinois, and they yielded okay.

They weren't a record by any means, but they were good beans.

Uh, you know, they're off color.

You know, there's a lot of off color soybeans.

Um, elaborate on last week's price action and what you expect to be some of the main catalysts moving the market this week.

What do you think about that move and what it really means?

There's a few things going on here, of course.

I think part of the reason the market was so supportive, obviously, had a lot of Chinese purchases, a lot of weather issues, of course, I think supported, especially with the state of Iowa happened to sit as much as what they have, parts of Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota.

There's just a lot of wet areas in northern Illinois.

And so I think that supported.

Well, then you came in with that.

you know, announcement that essentially we're not going to have the 10% tariff relief on U.S. soybeans going to China, which makes it really hard on their privately owned buyers and crushers to be able to buy U.S. beans, you know, the price that they'd have to pay with the tariff and be able to make money.

What's your assessment of the corn market looking into that World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate crop production report on Friday of next week?

Mm-hmm

... uh, beyond anything that I've ever experienced in my career.

I mean, I, you know, it, when it's 97 degrees out with very little humidity and the wind's blowing, you know that things are gonna happen faster than normal.

So, you know, we went off and left some corn for, uh, five, five days here, uh, I don't know, about 10, 10, 12 days ago, and five days later it was six points, uh, drier or over six points drier.

I mean, it's just a, it's more than a point a day.

But no doubt that you've got a, a, a big contrast between, for instance, uh, that southern two-thirds of Illinois, if you will, or southern half of Illinois, there's a lot of activity.

Uh, you get into the northern part, you know, and people are sitting.

Yeah