When do you think we get to a new all-time high?

I mean, you know, if you're gonna get to a new all-time high, it's gonna take, you know, at least a year from now because it's gonna take a lot of capital to push the market higher.

Really, to push Bitcoin, uh, quite high up from here, I think it's gonna take, um, you know, a lot more, I guess, a lot more catalysts, a lot more narratives.

And I think when we look back again at the Trump election, because people were very, you know, eu- euphoric, and, you know, he was supposed to be the crypto president, like, nobody was willing to sell.

But I think here the problem is really that, uh, we have traded at these levels, uh, before.

So some people, you know, have bought at 90.

They might be happy to get back, you know, get, get out of 90.

Do you think we're gonna see retail participate in crypto markets in the next bull market the same way we've seen them participate in previous ones?

When do you think we get to a new all-time high?

I mean, you know, if you're gonna get to a new all-time high, it's gonna take, you know, at least a year from now because it's gonna take a lot of capital to push the market higher.

Really, to push Bitcoin, uh, quite high up from here, I think it's gonna take, um, you know, a lot more, I guess, a lot more catalysts, a lot more narratives.

And I think when we look back again at the Trump election, because people were very, you know, e- euphoric and, you know, he was supposed to be the crypto president, like nobody was willing to sell.

But I think here the problem is really that, uh, we have traded at these levels, uh, before, so some people, you know, have bought at 90.

They might be happy to get back, you know, get, get out of 90.

But back then, you know, after the Trump election, we didn't really trade at, uh, you know, at 80,000 before.

Do you think we're gonna see retail participate in crypto markets in the next bull market the same way we've seen them participate in previous ones?

When do you think we, we pick up again and get out of this rut?

Well, I don't think clarity was, you know, was a, was a catalyst by itself, right? I think even like the Genius act, you know, I would argue was not really a catalyst at all for the market, right? It was of course a lot of expectations into the event, but then we sort of like peaked out in a lot of assets really across the board.

And in a lot of, uh, crypto stocks, right? I think Coinbase peaked out, you know, last summer around that time, and then really didn't really do much until really we started to, to sell off.

But normally, you know, we're coming into July.

July tends to be sort of like the last, uh, bullish months before we're going into like a bigger consolidation.

So normally we have actually 9%, uh, positive performance in July.

But again, I don't think there's any real catalyst.

When, when do we get there, and is that the bottom?

When do you think we, we pick up again and get out of this rut?

Well, I don't think clarity was, you know, was a, was a catalyst by itself, right? I think even like the Genius Act, you know, I would argue was not really a catalyst at all for the market, right? It was, of course, a lot of expectations into the event, but then we sort of like peaked out in a lot of assets really across the board.

And in a lot of, uh, crypto stocks, right? I think Coinbase peaked out, you know, last summer around that time, and then really didn't really do much until really we started to, to sell off.

But normally, you know, we're coming into July.

July tends to be sort of like the last, uh, bullish month before we're going into like a bigger consolidation.

So normally we have actually 9%, uh, positive performance in July.

But again, I don't think there's any real catalyst.

When, when do we get there, and is that the bottom?

I mean, do you see any future catalysts outside of macro driven headlines that could possibly sort of cause Bitcoin to make a decision and go either way?

I mean, unfortunately not, right? I mean, positioning is very light.

So it's going to be very difficult to really push Bitcoin down a lot, which I don't think is going to happen.

If we're going to go lower because of the geopolitical risk events, we're going to go gradually lower.

But we're not going to have like a 10% move as we've seen in previous cycles or a couple of months ago.

So if lower, then more gradual move.

Because there's not a lot of money coming into the market, right? As you said, there's no real catalyst.

i

And I think still a lot of confusion.

Yeah, but when you look, you know, what happened actually in 2019 and in 2024, right? So just, you know, I mean, probably easier to remember what happened last year in December.

You know, we also had like this 50 basis point cut in September.

We had this massive rally, you know, when Elon Musk started to support Trump in October.

And then, of course, Trump was elected in November.

But then sort of like the party was over middle of December.

And that's exactly when the Fed meeting was because Powell started to talk hawkish because in anticipation of the Trump tariffs.

They think next year, four-year cycle is dead, and that can continue to push the price of these assets.

How is there enough Bitcoin to sell that this buying pressure is not sending prices flying?

So one of the, you know, comments that I made earlier, and it was picked up by, you know, by CNBC, Bloomberg, and so on, is really that these wallets of a thousand BTC, they're the ones that I really like selling.

And these are, you know, some of the old, you know, old miners, probably like Chinese miners from, you know, 10, 15 years ago almost.

And I think when we looked at those kind of these cohorts, the ones that are really buying are the wallets between 100 to, 1,000 BTC.

And we know that, for example, MicroStrategy and BlackRock, they each have around like 500 wallets.

So they fall into this sort of like the whales, right? I mean, you know, how Glassnode classifies them, the 100 BTC, basically 10 million USD to, you know, to like 100 million BTC per wallet.

But it's really the larger ones.

Marcus, I mean, is that basically aligned with how you're thinking about this?

So what's going on here? Is this normal or do we need some action?

No, I think it's normal that we have consolidated basically after the FOMC meeting in December where Powell was hawkish.

But, you know, we had Christopher Waller coming out after the CPI data release in January, really mid-January, and pushing back against really this hawkishness.

So I think we're seeing that the Fed becomes a little bit more dovish.

I think there are still two cuts priced in.

So I think the market shouldn't be carried away.

And, you know, as you said, You know, we're coming into February where usually you have seven out of the last 10 February's being positive and average returns is around like 11%.

And there's no new people to buy the rest of these altcoins because they're buying Bitcoin ETFs.