Skip to main content
Mark Thirlwell

Mark Thirlwell

Chief Economist at the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD)

Oct 14, 2026

11:30
They can't be trusted.
11:30
Yeah.
11:30
It, it, politically if they wanna get reelected, and particularly in a country like Australia where we have very short electoral cycles, their incentive to tighten policy to tame inflation is always gonna be subject to a degree of question, and then you get into these complicated political business cycle style arguments that says, "Well, if voters get smart enough to realize that politicians can't be trusted to tighten policy when they do it, then voters will act as if they can't be trusted to do it regardless of whether the pollies can or not." So let's just, let's have an independent central bank that can take the heat, can take being on the front page of newspapers and people shouting unpleasant things at them, and will still do the right thing or the tough thing.
12:06
So we've kind of decided over time That in terms of the allocation of responsibilities, it's a central bank's job, not the government's job, and that's partly this political economy reason.
12:15
The other reason that we've done that is it's frankly easier technically to adjust interest rates than it is to adjust tax and spending rates.
12:21
I mean, we've already talked about the lags around interest rate adjustment in terms of the effects being held, but at least the policy lag around doing the implementation is pretty short.
12:30
The policy lag around implementing changes to tax and spend policy tends to be longer.

11 MINS LATER

23:40
So talk us through what's happened.
11:08
They can't be trusted.
11:08
Yeah.
11:09
It, it, politically, if they wanna get reelected, and particularly in a country like Australia where we have very short electoral cycles, their incentive to tighten policy to tame inflation is always gonna be subject to a degree of question, and then you get into these complicated political business cycle style arguments that says, "Well, if voters get smart enough to realize that politicians can't be trusted to tighten policy when they do it, then voters will act as if they can't be trusted to do it, regardless of whether the pollies can or not.
11:33
So let's just, let's have an independent central bank that can take the heat, can take being on the front page of newspapers and people shouting unpleasant things at them, and will still do the right thing or the tough thing." So we've kind of decided over time that in the terms of the allocation of responsibilities, it's the central bank's job, not the government's job, and that's partly this political economy reason.
11:53
The other reason that we've done that is it's frankly easier technically to adjust interest rates than it is to adjust tax and spending rates.
12:00
I mean, we've already talked about the lags around interest rate adjustment in terms of the effects being held, but at least the policy lag around doing the implementation is pretty short.
12:08
The policy lag around implementing changes to tax and spend policy tends to be longer.

11 MINS LATER

23:18
So talk us through what's happened.
18:56
intertwined.
18:57
Exactly.
18:57
Depending on what sector you're in, there's either going to be direct relevance to you as a board or it's going to be indirect.
19:02
But regardless of that, I think understanding that these are some, not all, but some of the big forces that will shape the way the economy functions and operates are over time will be really important.
19:13
On the specifics of the energy transition story, that ranges from understanding the changing political settings, the social license around that, through to fundamental issues around, for example, the cost and availability and supply of energy that determine overall national competitiveness.
19:32
through to the changing nature of the technology that's been in play and watching how that shifting technology stack changes.
19:42
I mean, it's been a fascinating story over the last few years.
24:08
Innovative is one

We value your privacy

We use cookies to understand how you use our platform and to improve your experience. Click “Accept All” to consent, or “Decline non-essential” to opt out of non-essential cookies. Read our Privacy Policy.