
Mark Thirlwell
Chief Economist at the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD)
3
APPEARANCES
2
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012
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Oct 14, 2026
Can the World Economy Avoid Entering a Doom Loop?
11:30
12:06
12:15
12:21
12:30

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
It, it, politically if they wanna get reelected, and particularly in a country like Australia where we have very short electoral cycles, their incentive to tighten policy to tame inflation is always gonna be subject to a degree of question, and then you get into these complicated political business cycle style arguments that says, "Well, if voters get smart enough to realize that politicians can't be trusted to tighten policy when they do it, then voters will act as if they can't be trusted to do it regardless of whether the pollies can or not." So let's just, let's have an independent central bank that can take the heat, can take being on the front page of newspapers and people shouting unpleasant things at them, and will still do the right thing or the tough thing.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
So we've kind of decided over time That in terms of the allocation of responsibilities, it's a central bank's job, not the government's job, and that's partly this political economy reason.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
The other reason that we've done that is it's frankly easier technically to adjust interest rates than it is to adjust tax and spending rates.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
I mean, we've already talked about the lags around interest rate adjustment in terms of the effects being held, but at least the policy lag around doing the implementation is pretty short.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
The policy lag around implementing changes to tax and spend policy tends to be longer.
11 MINS LATER
Can the World Economy Avoid Entering a Doom Loop?
11:09
11:33
11:53
12:00
12:08

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
It, it, politically, if they wanna get reelected, and particularly in a country like Australia where we have very short electoral cycles, their incentive to tighten policy to tame inflation is always gonna be subject to a degree of question, and then you get into these complicated political business cycle style arguments that says, "Well, if voters get smart enough to realize that politicians can't be trusted to tighten policy when they do it, then voters will act as if they can't be trusted to do it, regardless of whether the pollies can or not.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
So let's just, let's have an independent central bank that can take the heat, can take being on the front page of newspapers and people shouting unpleasant things at them, and will still do the right thing or the tough thing." So we've kind of decided over time that in the terms of the allocation of responsibilities, it's the central bank's job, not the government's job, and that's partly this political economy reason.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
The other reason that we've done that is it's frankly easier technically to adjust interest rates than it is to adjust tax and spending rates.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
I mean, we've already talked about the lags around interest rate adjustment in terms of the effects being held, but at least the policy lag around doing the implementation is pretty short.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
The policy lag around implementing changes to tax and spend policy tends to be longer.
11 MINS LATER
The Economic Forces Every Board Should Be Watching
18:57
19:02
19:13
19:32

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
Depending on what sector you're in, there's either going to be direct relevance to you as a board or it's going to be indirect.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
But regardless of that, I think understanding that these are some, not all, but some of the big forces that will shape the way the economy functions and operates are over time will be really important.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
On the specifics of the energy transition story, that ranges from understanding the changing political settings, the social license around that, through to fundamental issues around, for example, the cost and availability and supply of energy that determine overall national competitiveness.

Mark ThirlwellGUEST
through to the changing nature of the technology that's been in play and watching how that shifting technology stack changes.