Hmm.

So who knows? Who knows where it's gonna go? Y- you know, there is a chance, uh, our, our counter tariffs doesn't come into effect until September 8th.

There is a world where they get back to the negotiating table.

It is a maybe slightly distant, hard to believe world, but it is there.

It is possible.

It is possible.

Maybe cooler heads will prevail, and they'll get back to the table before September 8th.

Mm-hmm

Okay, so we're staring down this July 1st deadline, and just very briefly here, can you remind us why this date is significant? Like, what were the options on the table here?

So July 1 is this date that we've all been looking towards for many, many months, in fact, many years.

July 1 is the six-year review date for the North American Trade Agreement, which you call USMCA, CUSMA, TMAC, whatever acronym you want.

So when the agreement came into force in 2020 and replaced NAFTA before it, it had this new mechanism in which meant after six years, the three countries would sit down, and they would say, "What's worked? What hasn't worked? What do we wanna change? Do we want to extend the agreement?" So that is what's happening on Wednesday, July 1st.

Essentially, what, what happens with this six-year review is the three countries can decide if they want to just stamp the agreement and extend it for another 16 years.

That's the option that Mexico wanted.

It's the option that Ottawa wanted as well.

Mm-hmm

[laughs]

...

in bold letters.

Uh, it is the factor that is, that is defining the country right now, and uncertainty around access to the US market is, is having huge, a huge impact.

You know, it's not just the, the sectors that, that we all know about that are being hit directly, it's the fact that if you do not know what tariffs are gonna be tomorrow, if you do not know what Donald Trump is gonna tweet or post on Truth Social at 5:00 in the morning, am I gonna go out and, I don't know, spend 5 million bucks building a new factory or, or hiring a bunch of new workers? Like, I'm probably not.

And so that, that uncertainty is the, the kind of frame to understand everything that's going on in the economy right now, and, and getting to some sort of solution on that uncertainty is a big priority.

There's a couple ways we could get there.

Just one final question for you, Mark, uh, because you are our economics reporter, what will you be watching for in terms of where the economy is going and, and whether or not we are headed into a recession?

But I'm curious, what does it tell you that Mexico is so much further along than Canada? Like, what does that tell you about the approaches here?

So over the last year, Mexico has taken a very different approach to the United States than Ottawa has.

President Sheinbaum of Mexico has cultivated a fairly close relationship with Donald Trump.

Mexico is also cooperating with the US across a range of issues that are very core to Trump's priorities, so things like drug cartels, things like illegal migration.

There's been a, just a level of engagement between the countries.

The US has put a list of basically fifty something, I think it's fifty-four concerns to the Mexicans and have said, "You guys should work through that list." Mexico is working down that list.

Uh, Mexico's put a list of, uh, complaints back in the other direction.

[bell dinging] So, Mark, what can you tell us about Canada's trade negotiators, Mark Wiseman and Janice Charette? How are they approaching these talks?

[chuckles]

- she's like, she hasn't reacted in the same kind of way, uh, to every Trump tweet as, you know, politicians perhaps in Canada have.

Uh, what's going on there? I'm not sure.

I mean, to a certain extent, Mexico is even more reliant on the US economy than, than Canada is.

I mean, it's kind of hard to believe.

We are very [chuckles] reliant on the US economy, but, you know, Mexico has these huge manufacturing sectors that are basically there...

International companies are there, so they can set up and sell into the US.

Mm-hmm.