What do we know about how affordability and the cost of living might have influenced voters in the RGV?

Well, that's having a massive impact, and that's probably the principal driving force for why people who voted for Donald Trump, thinking he was going to deliver economic prosperity, but who now see themselves as worse off than they were a year ago, have switched their vote back to a Democratic candidate.

We found that over half of likely voters in Texas 15 say they are worse off today compared to one year ago.

Only about a quarter say they're better off.

And 90% of Pulido voters say that they're worse off compared to De La Cruz voters who are more of a mix.

Only 14% of them said they're worse off than they were a year ago.

So that's clearly a driving force.

Can you tell us about that finding?

Why have we not seen very many debates?

debates?Well, I think strategically campaigns are realizing that it's often not in their best interest if they have an advantage or if it's even close to give their rival a platform.

So the candidates who are ahead in the polls and see themselves as having an advantage view a debate as only giving a platform to their less well-known rival and allowing them to potentially have a game-changing moment as- and s- and change the status quo.

And then in a- and that explains a lot of the races, uh, k- uh, decisions.

And then in a few cases you have people that are simply not very good on the debate stage.

For instance, Ken Paxton, in theory, since he's trailing James Talarico in the polls and Talarico is willing to, uh, uh, have a debate, might benefit from it were he not, not very good at debating, uh, as well as probably not wanting to expose himself to a host of very uncomfortable questions, which would be tough to avoid during a debate.

Hmm

... or Election Day voting rather than an increase.

Where, where is the, where is the Trump coalition failing him?

him?Well, I think in two principal places.

First, uh, y- Donald Trump won 55% of the Latino vote back in, uh, 2024.

A significant proportion of those voters are either voting for Talarico or they're planning on staying home this election.

So that's one big area, Latino voters who are going back to more traditional levels that we've seen in Texas.

Instead of the 55/45 that we saw for Republicans back in 2024, it's dropping to the more traditional 60/40, 60% for Democrats, 40% for Republicans.

And then the other area is a group of Republicans that are a minority in the party, the moderate Republicans.

How does Talarico overcome and finish, go to get to the finish line where Beto O'Rourke couldn't?

What happens to that role if a Democrat becomes governor?

Well, it definitely changes.

The ability for Republicans to more or less unilaterally push policy through would be limited or pretty much ended.

It would also be, I think, a potentially devastating impact for national Republicans' hopes of being relevant on the national stage.

If Texas is in play in presidential elections and Republicans can't rely on its 40 electoral college seats—and that's going to be more after 2030— then it's really tough mathematically to think of a scenario where outside of a really weak Democratic candidate or a very difficult scenario for Democrats in terms of the economic context for Republicans to win a presidential race, and similarly if Republicans don't have the ability to draw the maps in Texas to give Republicans a boost in the U.S. House seats, then it's also tough to imagine Republicans actually winning getting majorities in the U.S. House barring exceptional

Mark, we've been talking about what a Democratic governor would mean for Democrats and Republicans, but what about ordinary Texans? What do you think would be the first tangible differences people might actually notice in their daily lives, and realistically, how long before such changes might actually happen?

Well, a lot would depend on what type of governor we would have with Gina Hinojosa.

Would we have someone who tries to steer to the center and make coalitions and build coalitions with Republicans? Or it would be the diehard progressive who we'd be seeing voting in the Texas House for the past decade, who's always one of the 10 most liberal members of the House.

Uh, what, what do you make of just the fact that he is making so many repeat trips here? What, what does that say?

Well, I, I think in the case of Ken Paxton, he- it's a recognition that he broke the ra- Senate bid by, or the Senate contest for Republicans, and Republicans want him to try to fix it, or he's going to try to fix it.

That is, he has to own Paxton.

And, and while Paxton may complain about DC running his campaign, uh, when he decided to go to London with his paramour to celebrate the Fourth of July, um, you know, during a time where people are concerned about affordability, he probably gave up any ability to control his own destiny.

That is, it's in the hands of others.

Uh, but, you know, I think for Trump, there's a sensation that, yeah, he owns Paxton, and if Paxton loses, he- Trump is going to get most of the blame.

That is, Texas Republicans are going to say, "You caused all this mess.

Uh, is a Fort Bend County specific survey instructive when it comes to those statewide races?

Hmm.

You only need 218 for a majority, so Hakeem Jeffries will be the next speaker.

The real question is the Senate, and the Senate is looking increasingly like it's going to go, uh, Democratic.

I'd say there's probably a three out of four chance today that Democrats take control of the Senate, with the only question being is it a 51 to 49 majority, 52, 48, 53 to 47, et cetera.

And that's where Texas plays a role because Texas is part of that calculus that gets Democrats to, say, 52 or 51.

And in the back of all Democrats' mind is they really don't wanna be at 51 because that 51 includes John Fetterman from Pennsylvania, and they fear, fear that there's a risk that he could effectively flip and caucus with Republicans, thereby denying them a majority.

So they'll feel much more comfortable at 52, and right now it looks like they're going to get there.

Uh, since people are using that term tsunami, blue tsunami, what would actually constitute a political, uh, earthquake, let's, let's change the metaphor, in Texas? Uh, Democratic senator, Democratic governor, several congressional pickups? How would you define that?

well is there any policy or a discussion of a policy to govern the use of ai and campaign advertising

Well, Texas was one of the first movers.

Senator Brian Hughes of Mineola drafted Senate Bill 751 back in 2019, which expressly prohibits these types of ads 30 days prior to the election.

There also are federal requirements that you disclose who's doing the ad and in terms of funding.

But in Texas, there is no restriction on these ads up until 30 days prior to election day.

So anybody can use them.

And even after the 30-day window has started, it's not entirely clear if they apply to federal elections or not.

Well, where and how are these AI-generated materials getting out there? Social media, network TV? And are they carrying some sort of notice that it's AI?

Mark, is that how you read it? Is this a sign of some leaks, some concerns for the GOP? Or is it now this is just a way to gain some attention and some money towards the election?

I think it reflects an interesting situation where we're in.

In past years, past midterms, when you have an unpopular president in the White House, candidates from their party competing in competitive House districts or competitive Senate races often distance themselves from the president.

I remember Greg Abbott once, back even 2018, I think, left the country when the president, I think, went to Israel at one point when President Trump visited to avoid being sort of next to him.

Not to I'm not 100% sure on that.

There was something like that.

But the reality is in the current Republican Party, it's so associated with Trump and virtually all of these candidates are so tied to Trump that you really have a difficult time credibly distancing yourself from the president.

How does any of this work? How do voters have any idea who it is they're supposed to vote for?

Mark, what are your takeaways from Tuesday?

Well, as you mentioned, it was a mixed bag.

In Wisconsin, I guess Thanksgiving is safe because a democratic socialist, Francesca Huang, who in the past had some doubts or concerns or issues and potentially talked about banning Thanksgiving, lost narrowly to David Crowley, a progressive, but not as far to the left as her.

So that was one loss for the democratic socialists.

In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan, though, who's not a Democratic Socialist but is much more progressive than Angie Craig, a congresswoman who she ran against, won the Democratic primary for Senate there.

And given the blue nature of Minnesota and Donald Trump's unpopularity, looks...

Pretty well set to win in November, although she does face former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya, who is a really strong candidate for Republican, so she might have some possibilities.

head recently?

What should we anticipate with these Canadian tariffs?

Well, one, they could actually get postponed.

So with the president, you never know if they're going to be implemented until the day comes for them to be implemented.

But in the short term, it'll be a rise in prices for imported goods from Canada.

And that's been the major impact of tariffs because for companies actually to respond to, say, start producing the things that we presently import, requires certainty about what the rules of the game are going to be for the medium to long term.

And if there was one thing with the Trump administration that's very clear is rules can change at a moment's notice.

So companies that might, in theory, benefit from higher tariffs on Canada in terms would need to invest in factories and production lines.

Will we see a debate between Tallarico and Paxton?

Will any of the high court's decisions this term have reverberations in the final four months of the midterm elections?

I think there's one on campaign finance where the court struck down any restrictions on parties giving as much money as they want to candidates.

So up until now, there have been restrictions on how much parties can actually directly give to the individual candidates, much like restrictions on the amount that individuals can give to individual candidates.

Now... a donor can give $1,500,000 to a party, and that party can turn around and send it straight to the candidate, and that's perfectly legal.

And that's important for campaigns because while super PACs under the Citizens United decision have been able to do whatever they want and spend millions and millions of dollars, they technically can't coordinate with the candidates.

They can't get the same deals for television advertising that the candidates can get, and the candidates prefer to have actual control over money their campaign, as opposed to having super PACs out there on the edges doing it.

This will allow billionaires and millionaires to give money to parties with instructions.

Mark, particularly maybe here in Houston, because of course we've had the state-appointed board and state takeover of Houston ISD, and maybe this is going to be seen as another example of, well, this is state encroachment into what should be local decisions.

Why, Mark, in light of that, is that point just not clear to proponents of the SAVE Act, or is it that they don't see that as a barrier?

Well, I think a lot of it has to do with a focus and something of an obsession with election fraud.

And there's a belief that's been fueled by the president particularly, but also by other Republicans, that there's widespread election fraud occurring throughout the country, that you have millions of people who aren't citizens who are registered to vote.

We have no evidence that this is actually the case.

And while there is some election fraud, it isn't at the massive scale that would require or essentially justify making such a large wholesale change in terms of how we register to vote.

If you think it's difficult now, getting the birth certificate together, getting a marriage license together.

Those are things that are difficult and have to be done in person in places like Texas and would definitely have a negative impact on people's ability to cast a vote and to essentially exercise their right of suffrage.

So

Uh, and, uh, that, that was one of the questions coming into this, and, and I imagine a question that will be asked following this, is whether or not it should give a city like Houston any pause in the future about any major event, and what guarantees, what negotiations they are or are not in a position to make.

Right.

So, like, Chicago is a good example of a city that had the option of hosting World Cup matches and said no once they looked at the financial agreement.

I, it definitely will, especially after this, uh, World Cup, where at least all signals are that the revenue that fans are bringing in, people traveling here are bringing in, is not near what even was, was closely projected, where even there you're probably breaking even or doing a little better.

But we're looking at hotel reservations, uh, thus far, and the lodging industry here in Houston, they at least at the present time are not seeing any, uh, they aren't seeing the reservations or the demand that they thought they were going to receive, and that's not a good signal for the City of Houston if the goal is to at least recoup the money that was invested.

What, what is the latest on efforts to, to reach some sort of deal between the two?

Well, every time we seem close, something occurs, a Black Op helicopter gets shot down, Israel, uh, s- bombs parts of Lebanon or attacks Iran.

But at the end of the day, we're in a situation where we don't seem all that much closer to a truce, and that then will continue to fuel this high inflation in terms of gas prices.

Uh, what should we know about that?

Well, first, California has an absolutely dreadful s- uh, electoral system in terms of, uh, counting of ballots.

It's a overwhelmingly mail ballot state.

Most people vote by mail, an overwhelming majority.

But ballots can be accept- or will be accepted up to seven days after Election Day if they're postmarked.

As a result, we get this huge backlog of ballots that will take over a week to get counted, so it may be for some of these closer races it'll be this time next week on Houston Matters where you'll be talking about who actually is in first and second place in some of these competitive contests, like, uh, the governor's race, where there's still a possibility that S- Tom Steyer could, uh, leapfrog, uh, Steve Hilton.

It's unlikely to a- leapfrog Xavier Becerra, part- because most of the votes that come in later tend to be more Democratic.

Uh, what else are you keeping tabs on in politics this week, Mark?

Am I right?

No, it was not close at all.

Mueller won by a pretty dramatic margin.

Having the endorsement of President Trump, as well as having far more financial resources than Kaine did, really helped seal the deal for her.

Coming from a March 1st round, when the election was relatively close, Mueller won, but only by the mid-single digits.

This is, I think, a good election for Republicans because while District 9 leans heavily Republican, it is the one congressional district in the Houston metro area that is somewhat up for grabs in the fall.

And having Mueller as the Republican nominee makes it far more likely that Republicans will be able to hold on to that seat, given that she has much more crossover appeal than Briscoe Cain has.

What sticks out to you, Professor Jones, as we look toward November?

Why is this getting so much attention and how close do you think it will be?

Well, it's getting quite a bit of attention, first and foremost, because it's the most expensive primary in U.S. history.

There's been a lot of money spent.

We're over $150 million by now on TV ads alone, and President Trump's weighed in.

It's also a race that queues things up for the November election.

Democrats believe that if Ken Paxton, the deeply flawed GOP candidate with more political dirty laundry or personal, financial, legal dirty laundry than pretty much anyone.

If he's the nominee, Democrats think they have a realistic probability or possibility of winning in Texas.

Where does that runoff stand and why is this a top race to watch? And I guess it's a two-parter because we have runoffs on both sides of the aisle.

A- and, uh,It is really that close in terms of the runoff itself based off of, uh, polling that you conducted for the University of Houston, right?

Right.

So we also found in a UH Hobby School poll a few weeks back, uh, we found that Cornyn w- trailed Paxton by three points, but that's also effectively a statistical dead heat.

Uh, so we not only have a very close race for US Senate, uh, or the GOP nomination in the US Senate right now, but as we look towards the fall, at least at the present time, a very close race then between whoever comes out of the GOP primary victorious, Ken Paxton or John Cornyn, they're facing a tough battle against Democrat James Talarico in November.

What can you tell us about those candidates?

Well, there you have on the Democratic side, uh, Annise Parker, uh, who is a former mayor of Houston, controller, city council member, running a strong campaign.

She's being challenged by Leticia Plummer, who's a former city council member.

Uh, Parker is, I think, the strong favorite there.

Mm-hmm.

Uh, and, uh, it actually took me a long time to, to calm down, to, um, really, uh, emotionally, mentally, uh, de-escalate, and I actually slept for, like the best part of the next day.

And then I had two weeks off work where I was, um, resting and really not doing anything, could barely get out of bed.

I s- went up and spent some time just to get away from the house and everything, um, you know, with my parents on the Central Coast, and so I, you know, slept in the spare room, and my mom looked after me again, which was kind of delightful looking back on, but actually, again, a, a really incredibly humbling moment.

I remember sort of staring at the ceiling thinking, "I'm back home again." Like, "I've failed," you know? "How did I get here?" I then began to start seeing medical professionals.

I, I didn't, I didn't go to hospital because I started to find myself in, in a relative state of regulation, but I knew that I was depressed.

And, um, actually, one of the things that many people who go through this experience is extreme sensitivity to light and sound.

Mm-hmm.

What'd you find out?

Well, so in the 9th District, that's where we have Alex Miller and Briscoe Cain in a runoff.

We found, uh, that Miller had 50% of the vote and Cain 41%, with 9% undecided.

So Miller has a strong lead.

Uh, she, uh, finished first in, back in March by 5%, so she's been able to sort of increase that lead a little bit.

She's in good position.

But once again, that's a very low turnout district, and so it, who wins it is going to be the person who can mobilize their supporters to actually get out and vote.

Mark, what is the latest?

Mark, what, what are your takeaways from there?

Well, Indiana was an interesting case because there you had Republicans in the State Senate block Donald Trump's, uh, attempted redistricting plan for Indiana, which would have eliminated the one Democratic seat that remains there.

Trump then vowed revenge on those, uh, Republican incumbents, and of the seven of them that Trump went after, five have lost, one won, and one is hanging with a margin of, uh, uh, essentially a lead of three votes out of about 12,000, with still a few votes to come in.

So Trump by and large was successful, and that will send a chilling effect across for Republicans across the country because it, it indicates that in spite of Donald Trump's lower approval ratings at the national level among all Americans, among Republican primary voters, he still is very popular, and if you cross him, as these Indiana state senators did by blocking his proposed redistricting plan, uh, it can have negative consequences for you in the primary.

In this case, five of them will not be returning to office almost exclusively because they, uh, opposed Donald Trump on this issue.

From a pollster's perspective, what do these numbers tell you, Mark?

Well, they aren't good for the president, and they're a real liability, as Renee mentioned, for Republicans as we approach November.

Uh, with Donald Trump having record for him low approval ratings, that will resonate negatively for Republican candidates from Maine to California and make it all the more difficult for Republicans to retain control of the US House, which I think now is a, probably a lost cause for the Republican Party unless something changed dramatically.

Yeah

...

I guess all the outer planets change sign within approximately 18 months.

We do notice it in the world, don't we? I mean, the prevailing anxiety I think you talk about is quite profound, and it-Seems to me it involve lo- lots and lots of levels.

You know, its apparent manifestation in terms of AI or AGI is largely at this point a projection, isn't it? We're projecting our fears.

Now, there are some people who are really working with the powerful tools who are giving us cause to project our fears.

I mean, what are we to make of it all, guys? It's very confusing, isn't it? Um, I myself have overcome my resistance to AI, not directly, but, you know, I've looked at ...

So can you just describe that a little bit for people who are new to that concept?

This far out, without yet knowing if Cornyn or Paxton will face Talarico in November, do polls like this matter very much?

Well, they send a signal.

They certainly provide information.

But it's difficult to really replicate the conditions that we're going to have in October and November today, in part because voters aren't thinking as much about that election, especially, say, the Texas Tribune poll, which is of registered voters, not likely voters, whereas the prior poll was, uh, the Warford Poll, was of likely voters.

That's one difference.

The other is we haven't seen a barrage of negative attack ads against the different candidates.

So we haven't seen, say, Democrats spend $100 million telling everybody about all of the political baggage, ethical baggage, legal baggage, financial baggage that, say, Ken Paxton has.

... situation." But there's a difference between temporary and extraordinary, right?

So when we look at six regulars being out of the lineup for the Kings, who are the young guys who have taken most advantage o- of those extra opportunities the last few weeks?

Well, I think the overwhelming prevailing storyline of the year as it pertains to the young guys and their, uh, subsequent progress and improvement, the headliner has to be Maxime Renauld.

I mean, I would label him the steal of the draft.

You know, 42nd pick, second round, uh, four-year player out of Stanford, uh, leads all rookies in the NBA in double doubles, um, has really benefited from, uh, the tutelage of, uh, you know, Sabonis when he's around, but even more so, Russell Westbrook.

The two of them have developed fantastic, uh, you know, undeniable chemistry.

Uh, you'll see it tonight, um, you know, with, with Russ coming off ball screen action, and they play out of the pocket so well.

And even a lot of times when DeMar DeRozan has the ball, uh, Matt, you'll notice this too, on the left block, when he, they run that cross-screen action, DeMar gets it on the r- uh, left block, and he'll take a couple dribbles and draw two.

Having guys of that character who will still stick to their processes, their routines, as if they were gonna make the playoffs is important to set that example for the younger guys, for sure.

(inhales sharply) How do you see that one playing out? Have Liverpool got the ability to still, obviously he's under contract, but to keep him there or do you think his wish for, for wanting football elsewhere and obviously to get weighed in essentially, do you think that will end up coming out on top and he will move on?

(clicks tongue) I think that's, th- this is gonna be the thing that determines what comes next and, um, in terms of...

Yeah, Diaz, it's not that he wants to leave, it's that he wants a new contract and those, those things are, are, you know, not, not the same.

Like, he, he would love a new contract here but he's not gonna get one.

And so we're in a situation now where I think it's a real test of everything Liverpool do behind the scenes, the, the culture around the club, everything that you've seen that has been so important in the last few years going back to the previous manager.

'Cause how many times in these sort of situations have you seen player goes on strike, player says something in the press? Diaz has always struck us as a very hard-working, very, you know, uh, dedicated player.

He's been brilliant.

Do you see him being the main focal point now for Liverpool in terms of that center half position?