Yeah.

Um, so, you know, Scott Bessent got on the news to say that the Strait of Hormuz would be irrelevant in two years.

Um, I think that's insanely optimistic.

Uh, I can't think of any senior member of the current administration who does not, mm, follow leadership in exaggerating to support the cause.

Now [laughs] even if, if I was fully on board and wearing a MAGA hat right now, I would try to be objective and try to, uh, distinguish hyperbole from reality.

And just because I was on board with this, I wouldn't wanna drink the Kool-Aid, and I would, as an investor, want to make sure that I was making my decision based on what we know or as close to truth as we can get, rather than what we're being told by people with a political agenda, even if I agreed with that agenda.

So take that, you know, grain of salt in mind.

Am I right?

And I said,

who dat? Oh, he's an anarchist like you.

You'd like him.

And so I had Doug on the show.

This is the early 90s.

And it was like meeting my long-lost brother, you know? I'd ask him these questions, and all of his answers were basically what I would say, but with 10 times more knowledge and experience to bring to bear to the question, right? You know, his knowledge of Roman history, all the way back to then.

historical examples of what did and didn't work.

Can you tell us a little bit about, in your own words, what is a speculator? How is that different from an investor? And is it a bad word?

Uh, do you anticipate that we could see further oil shocks from here, um, and further inflation due to that?

Yeah, that is in fact my, my plan A right now.

The most clear and imminent opportunity I see is in the oil patch.

Um, you know, I, I, I can't time the market, but as it seemed pretty obvious that as the strait started reopening, I don't, I don't know if normalize is even a word we can use because it seems like the local powers that be are gonna wanna impose some kind of toll or, or security, you know, fee or assistance in navigation fee or something like that for going through the, the strait.

I, so I don't know if we ever go back to normal the way it was.

Um, and clearly the neighbors there are scrambling to address that bottleneck with more pipelines and other ways around it.

So, you know, who knows? But anyway, the strait is reopening as we speak.

So what are you looking at right now to confirm either way that, you know, we have hit the bottom and this is the time to buy, or we are headed much lower?

Right

... saying something to think about.

But, but Rick Rule says, "Don't confuse the inevitable with the imminent." And my way of, of concretizing that is there are a lot of compelling macro stories out there, and s- and some of them I even agree with.

Like, I think it's likely that the BRICS will do something to more aggressive to dethrone the dollar, and a gold-backed BRICS currency unit makes absolute sense to me.

But a, a Doug Casey version of this or input to this is that they don't trust each other any more.

You know-

Mm.

On the other hand, if you believe in the commodity super cycle and you expect them all to bottom at the same time, go up at the same time, that's usually not what you see.

I would love for you to explain a little bit why isn't this an incredible opportunity to go long on the oil producers?

producers?Well, actually it is, uh, or it was [laughs] before the prices rebound, uh, rebounded over the last week or two.

I had just actually written that.

Since you and I spoke last, my views on this have shifted.

Uh, certainly I wasn't gonna chase it during the war, but I, I agree with the way you outlined the question.

I th- I think if nothing else, the damage that has been done to major sources of supply are understated.

I mean, in some of those countries in the Middle East, you can go to jail if you take a picture of a drone strike or something.

Is there anything out there that is hated enough and large enough for you to take a look at?

Yeah, no kidding.

Um, so no.

Actually, I, I don't, I don't worry about the metals.

If...

I suppose if I was very cautious, very bullish on copper, but didn't wanna risk a mining company have, you know, get nationalized or something, then I might buy a, a copper ETF for the metal, but I've never done that.

You know, I'm seeking alpha.

So I'm looking at, at the mining stocks.

That's perfect.

What is your current read on the situation

a little bit? So I do think this is actually interesting, and I don't have a stock pick to say therefore, but I think investors should be aware.

my perception, my read on the data, is that Mr.

Market has decided the war is over.

Or, okay, there's still, I call it a less fire instead of a ceasefire.

And Mr.

Market seems to think, like, you know, if it's not entirely over, it's going to be soon.

Isn't it

Yeah.

Get paid interest in gold for your gold, which, which is interesting.

But i- that's...

It, it was always a silly argument.

Uh, okay, yeah, sure, okay, gold doesn't pay interest.

Um, but if you...

And y- you stick it in a safe, right? It doesn't pay interest.

That's right, at the exact same level.

What are you thinking right now?

Basically everything I said about copper, but on steroids.

And yes, I know the famous billion pounds of uranium out there, you know.

Well, how long ago did that guy say that? Where are those billion pounds? It turns out that high prices are starting the process of curing high prices, but it's been a lot more difficult and slower than anybody expected.

Like pretty much all of the ramp ups, rebuilds, refurbishments, and new mines, they're behind schedule, over budget, producing at lower rates, or they move the goalposts.

Like the two biggest producers, and we know who they are, but they move the goalposts.

So I think it was reasonable to say, okay, 2024, uranium goes to triple digits, high prices will cure high prices.

remember like the writing on the wall couldn't be any clearer than Brian painting Romans go home on the Roman fort and six foot

What are you thinking right now?

Basically everything I said about copper, but on steroids.

And yes, I know the famous billion pounds of uranium out there, you know.

Well, how long ago did that guy say that? Where are those billion pounds? It turns out that high prices are starting the process of curing high prices, but it's been a lot more difficult and slower than anybody expected.

Like pretty much all of the ramp ups, rebuilds, refurbishments, and new mines, they're behind schedule, over budget, producing at lower rates, or they move the goalposts.

Like the two biggest producers, and we know who they are, but they move the goalposts.

So I think it was reasonable to say, okay, 2024, uranium goes to triple digits, high prices will cure high prices.

remember like the writing on the wall couldn't be any clearer than Brian painting Romans go home on the Roman fort and six foot

But When you think about this opportunity to buy something again at a low, Lobo, You know, is that something that makes you stop and really evaluate?

No, no, it's the valuation question.

The sentiment, maybe that's a leading indicator.

Maybe that means we'll go there.

So I just said I'm not a bear and I'm not.

I'm a wolf.

I'm an opportunity hunting wolf, right? It's not my business to be a bull or a bear.

But what does the runway look like to you, let's say, over the next five years? Nuclear power does seem to be getting integrated more into these AI talking points to power the AI revolution, but it's also being talked about as a new or newer technology implementation of an energy source to move actual product around the world, right?

You know, if you look at from the highs and you can go silver or gold or some of the others, do you have an entry point or do you have a series of sort of measures that say, OK, I'm comfortable then?

So a couple of things.

One is I didn't sell any gold or silver at all, like physical bullion.

That's not a speculation or even investment.

And by my view, that's savings.

That's my rainy day fund insurance.

Right.

So just give me an update on what you're thinking about the uranium side of things.

Mostly Turkey, because of, you know, Russia, too.

There are reports.

I've not seen numbers on them, and I don't know if the WGC will have the data on this, but there are reports that a lot of the Gulf states are selling gold as well.

And if I'm Sri Lanka or someplace and I can't buy jet fuel for what I used to, then maybe I'll dip into my reserves as well.

We'll only know in hindsight, and then we'll only know partially.

But what I'm saying, what's good about this is that...

If sovereigns, this isn't just JP Morgan or some private institution deciding to spoof some gold or do some market manipulation here.

is the same,

Which of these will remain relevant into 2026 and beyond?

All of them will be.

I mean, there's optimism about peace in Ukraine.

Um, I [laughs] but we still don't have any word from Moscow that they're actually even interested in the peace deals the Americans, and the Europeans, and the Ukrainians are, are n- hammering out between themselves without Russian participation.

So w- we'll see.

But the, the most interesting of the three that you pointed out there is actually, I think, the, the investment scenario.

One of the things that I know you've talked to our friend Rick Rule about is that the long-term average global portfolio allocation to gold has been 2% for decades, and recently it's only been around a half a percent.

Yes, exactly.