Um, sh- was that the right move? Should Trump be leaning into trying to make the midterms about him? He's certainly not very popular right now, but he's not ducking.

ducking.Yeah, I mean, I think the, the question of the midterm convention, I, and I'll be honest, I was a, I was a skeptic.

I think there's a reason why that, that hasn't happened in the past.

But if anyone were to ever do it, it is in this, uh, moment with this president, and I think there actually were things coming out of that that were beneficial.

I don't believe that on the night of that midterm convention, that the conversation would've been any better for Republicans if not for that, uh, convening.

I also think that gave, uh, some important, um, platforms and airtime to some up-and-coming candidates who were able to access national donors and national fundraising.

I think that's what typically a party convention does.

So Liam, uh, uh, answer that for the Republicans, but also, I mean, if the Democrats do take the House and Senate, you know, is this also paradoxically the boogeyman that Trump really needs? Now, now he has an enemy he can really fight against because it's no longer his folks in power.

Yeah

...

I think it's a very, very different contest than if she doesn't, and I think everybody else is waiting to see what she does.

Um, I think there's an interesting tension there with respect to Harris, and I find it in my mentions right now, 'cause I posted something yesterday.

I mean, if she continues to want to be president, there's no better opportunity.

Uh, you're not gonna get it handed to you any better.

There's, this field is wide open.

Liam.

Well, did you know anything about her before she was announced?

I didn't.

I had to kinda look it up, but it actually, in a weird way, it tracks.

Like, I think there's a shortlist of people that people might have expected, even maybe some of our CNN, uh, colleagues here.

Um, but the president really likes people who are good on TV and serve a very particular, um, lane.

And I also think that the model of Karoline Leavitt was, was such that, you know, somebody that, that is central casting in that sense, um, makes, makes a lot of sense.

And I think the division of labor within the communications department will be what I watch.

What does this swing through a, a mix of reliably red and battleground states tell you right now about the Republicans' chances on November 3rd?

I

had to kind of look it up.

But it actually, in a weird way, it tracks.

I think there's a short list of people that people might have expected, even maybe some of our CNN colleagues here.

But the president really likes people who are good on TV and serve a very particular lane.

And I also think that the model of Caroline Leavitt was such that somebody that is central casting in that sense makes a lot of sense.

And I think the division of labor within the communications department will be what I watch.

What does this swing through a mix of reliably red and battleground states tell you right now about the Republicans' chances on November 3rd?

Do you have any serious concerns right now that the midterm elections that are coming up on November 3rd could be what one Republican insider described as a bloodbath for Republicans?

Look, Wolf, at this point, if you're not running scared as a Republican, you're doing it wrong.

You have to act as if you're behind.

That's the only way you have hope to win.

I think the blessing for Republicans is the reason you can send the president to states like Texas, states that the majority for the Senate is going to run through is the terrain favors Republicans.

So even as the polling doesn't look great for Republicans.

Running the majority requires Senate Democrats to win states where it's very, very difficult to beat incumbents and to even win open seats when the party – Republicans typically win by 12, 13, 14 points.

You think, Liam, it would be a mistake for Trump to campaign in Maine?

You think, uh, Liam, it would be a mistake for Trump to campaign in Maine?

I think it's a waste of his time.

I think the political operation in the White House understands that sending Donald Trump to the states that he has... is very popular and, and wins handily, that's where he is, uh, has his highest and, and most, um, uh, best use.

But in Maine, you have to remember, in Maine too, up there in the area that Susan Collins is from, that is not the, you know, the... a, a deep blue area.

It is the sort of place where you do need to bring out those Trump voters.

It's a place where Paula Page is, is likely gonna win, I believe, and Republicans will take back that seat.

So, you know, I, I...

Liam, do you agree with him?

to win back some Latino voters? We're in

crunch time here.

I think the reality is whether you're talking about Latino voters or just voters at large, they are tuning in right now.

So the good news is there is still time.

We haven't gone to the polls yet.

The bad news is it is not good.

The facts are not great.

I mean, do you think his supporters will listen to him after he has so vigorously discredited mail-in ballots?

to win back some Latino voters? We're in

crunch time here.

I think the reality is whether you're talking about Latino voters or just voters at large, they are tuning in right now.

So the good news is there is still time.

We haven't gone to the polls yet.

The bad news is it is not good.

The facts are not great.

I mean, do you think his supporters will listen to him after he has so vigorously discredited mail-in ballots?

How can Americans trust him on any issue right now, Liam?

I, I think this is, uh, typical Donald Trump.

I mean, he's out there trying to get the headline.

We're talking about it the next day.

That was always the question, I mean, was what's coming out of this? What's, what's the, the pull through, uh, on night one of the convention? This is unprecedented.

He gave them something to talk about.

I think we're doing it right now.

... other than the fact that he's doing so well with Republicans on the ground, and that's his au- his target audience.

Who do Republicans want to see win in terms of who they think would be the easier? I

think as Republicans, we're sitting back and seeing what this Democratic Party is.

I wish we had the Democratic Party that Paul's describing.

I wish we had one where they just want a younger generation and maybe move toward the middle.

I think that'd be great for the country.

That's not what we're seeing.

And I think this is the dog that didn't bark.

Has the administration done enough to tackle the affordability problem?

[laughs]

I think this is the kind of thing 10 years in that most candidates have learned to understand that the president has his passions, he has his very personal, uh, um, you know, grudges that he holds.

That is separate and distinct from how to win races.

And so, Byron Donalds is gonna go out, or excuse me, this is, this is the Senate race.

Um, this is gonna be, uh, Ashley Moody, uh, going out there and I think, uh, having some fun, uh, with the ticket, uh, against the DSA candidate on the other side.

Uh, I think that's...

The, the thing to, to remember, and Maria is right, every state has its own story on these things.

Do you think voters care, or is this a consequential moment for her?

How do you see that unfolding?

I think number one, uh, I mean, Francesca Hong was not a great candidate that was, you know, very, very ripe for Republicans.

They were certainly rooting for it.

Uh, I think if you're looking at the initial polling, though, uh, Crowley is matching up similarly against Tiffany.

In the general election it is still a tough match-up, uh, and it's gonna be coming down to, I think, the environment and how Crowley shows.

I mean, this is a guy who was not in the race a month ago, so how he shows in the campaign trail, very impressive comeback.

I think to Joel's point, the collective action problem that Democrats managed to solve, I think they saw the race flash before their eyes with the experience in Michigan.

Um, what challenges do you think she's gonna face in this runoff?

How do you see that unfolding?

I think number one, uh, I mean, Francesca Hong was not a great candidate that was, you know, very, very ripe for Republicans.

They were certainly rooting for it.

Uh, I think if you're looking at the initial polling, though, uh, Crowley is matching up similarly against Tiffany.

In the general election it is still a tough matchup, uh, and it's gonna be coming down to I think the environment and how Crowley shows.

I mean, this is a guy who was not in the race a month ago, so how he shows in the campaign trail.

Very impressive comeback.

How do you see how that one played out?

How do you see that unfolding?

I think number one, I mean, Francesca Hong was not a great candidate that was, you know, very, very ripe for Republicans.

They were certainly rooting for it.

I think if you're looking at the initial polling, though, Crowley is matching up similarly against Tiffany.

In the general election, it is still a tough matchup, and it's going to be coming down to, I think, the environment and how Crowley shows.

I mean, this is a guy who was not in the race a month ago.

how he shows in the campaign trail, very impressive comeback.

What challenges do you think she's going to face in this

What do you say to that?

I think it doesn't matter if it's Tom Tiffany or any Republican on the ballot right now.

You need to be absorbing the attacks and pivoting back to making it about your opponent.

And Democrats are going to, um, have the wind at their backs in this election, but as they indulge their base and make poor choices, put up flawed candidates, it reminds me a lot, as somebody who lived through the Tea Party, uh, there's creative destruction at play.

And I think there's an opportunity for Democrats to leave a lot on the table by nominating people like Francesca Hong.

They might survive.

How it informs 2028 I think is gonna be very interesting.

What do you think, Liam, the president meant there? I mean-

How much of that do you feel like is is cope? Do you feel like the fundamentals are the same? How have the last couple of months changed your

view? Look.

i don't think much has changed except in so far as the time for things to change has abbreviated i mean i think last time we talked it was more like 200 days away and all of a sudden you cut that in half and i think you know that can be for good or for real if you are the party that's down and out then the best thing you can point to is well there's still time for things to get better and i think as we you know i think Last time we talked, I was sort of heading into the summer and there was a question of what are we gonna be thinking about? What are we talking about? Now we're getting, I'm thinking more about schools starting back up again.

We're getting into that fall season.

I think that's when the voter mentality shifts and we start paying attention to elections.

I don't think things have fundamentally changed and I would have hoped last time we talked that by this point we would have put to bed Iran, we would have put to bed some of the things that do keep Republicans up at night.

So, you know, I think it's steady as she goes in a way that's not necessarily great, but the numbers haven't fallen off a cliff.

This is much

Is it deja vu? How does it feel to be watching this play out? It's

fascinating.

I've been waiting for it for a time because I think it's not just about 2010.

I mean, there's a whole trajectory and sort of cycle that we went through.

And I think it's not a mirror image and they've come to it In maybe in some ways a different sequence, certainly in a different timeline.

But man, do these things rhyme.

And I think in part because Republicans have now had sort of two.

And I

How significant do you think it is that four Republicans split from the party on this vote?

You know, v- this is-- it's very slim margins, so as you say, it doesn't take much.

Uh, in this case, I think we can look at the individual members and explain their behavior by a number of things.

There's a few people with a libertarian bent who simply don't like war, have shown in, in the past, uh, dissatisfaction with the way things are going.

But you also have members in, in one case, uh, Elaine Duck, who's already been defeated and in fact with the, uh, opposition of the president himself, so no, uh, further repercussions, um, and another who is in a district that was actually, uh, lost by the president, won by Kamala Harris, uh, one of only two Republicans seeking re-election in that position.

So in that case, being in a fight with the president is probably the best thing for him.

So I think there's, there's interesting incentives at play, but the thing to remember here is this is very typical dynamic for a midterm where the party in power is on the defensive.

So i- is this, albeit it's only four Republicans, but is that not a glimmer of, of something going on that they wanted to send that message?

Yeah.

...

I'm sure we'll talk about this a little bit more, the state and local tax, just that one significant bra- base broadener and the political fallout that ensued gives you an idea of why these were made temporary, in part because the experience of the Bush tax cuts and the gambit that inv- that involved the idea that no matter who held power in 2025, no one would be willing to let those expire.

If you think back to what the vice president was committing to do, even what the president before her was committing to do, 90% of these things were gonna be continued.

So, that's kind of the baseline.

I think, um, that's what is reflected in Erica's numbers in terms of the, the true kind of growth involved here.

I think that's also, uh, a reflection of why some of these other elements are in here, some of these nontraditional, non-Orthodox, uh, policies.

I just don't understand how this system can continue without, as you're saying, um, just a further sort of breakdown in, like, the entire process of governing this country.