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Lamar Mitchell

Lamar Mitchell

Director of Trading for MGM Resorts International/BetMGM in Las Vegas, Nevada, where he analyzes sports betting sharp money and is a recurring guest on The Odd Couple podcast to discuss NFL betting lines.

Feb 7, 2026

34:46
Uh, how much do the, uh, past results factor in when you guys are setting the line?
34:52
Well, in these situations here, you, you always look at those past results.
34:56
Uh, I like to be a little superstitious, look at the team that's wearing the, uh, white uniforms.
35:01
They, they tend to win, uh, most of the games.
35:04
Uh, but it, it does factor, but not that much.
35:07
You know, obviously we go into, uh, who's the better, better team, uh, the match-up, what the public, we anticipate the public betting, where the money's gonna go.
35:15
So, um, small, small, very small, but we do factor that in there.
35:39
Where are the sharps on Seattle, who are favored by four and a half?
33:00
Uh, with that in mind, how much action are you seeing on the Pats to cover the three points at home in Foxborough?
33:07
You know, we opened this two and a half originally.
33:09
Uh, the pros laid it to three, and we've been sitting pretty at three, going between three minus 105, one, minus 115.
33:16
Uh, we're right now at three minus 120.
33:19
Uh, in this game here, money's slightly, uh, we're talking a ham sandwich in favor of the Texans.
33:26
But, uh, the ticket count from the Joeys, it's even Steven again.
33:30
So even though we've seen, uh, like you said, uh, the Texans not advance, do very well in the second round, uh, everyone's looking at that defense and saying, "Hey, they got a shot here," even though they're on the road at the Pats.
34:12
You could convince me it's gonna be a defensive all points matter, or maybe, you know, the offense gets to going a little bit and C.J. redeems himself versus how he played this past week.
37:37
With that in mind, I have to imagine the bettors are all over the Jags as home dogs, right?
37:43
You're absolutely right.
37:44
It's...
37:45
Well, let, let's, let's rephrase.
37:47
Joe Public is on the Bills about two to one clip as far as tickets, but, uh, the Sharps are definitely on the Jags.
37:55
I mean, we opened this, uh, one, one and a half, I'm sorry, and they've just been laying this, uh, they've taken this one on the Jags, and they've taken it minus 110, minus 115, uh, minus 120.
38:08
Uh, they've been taking this one here, and, uh, w- we're looking at the money, even s- even the money is coming in on the Jags.
40:39
Wow
37:22
What about the Sharks? Are they any interest in the rookie and the points?
37:26
In this situation, I would have to say, uh, yes.
37:31
Yes, because what we have here is the Bengals were one and a half, and now they're all...
37:36
They were plus one and a half, and now they're all the way up to four.
37:40
So, uh, in this situation it's like, uh, yeah, the, the...
37:43
No interest in, in Ewers.
37:45
Uh, like I say, originally we opened up the other side, and now it's a bet around all the way to the other side where the Bengals are the favorite.
41:16
Are the Sharks expecting the Ravens to finally break through in the red zone or, or is this a heavy interest in New England as the, uh, field goal underdog?
39:39
What you seeing?
39:41
Well, you know, we, we opened this at five and a half, and immediately, immediately the, uh, uh, the sharps took the five and a half, uh, and that's where the sharps have been.
39:51
They've been on the Bears on this, believe it or not.
39:53
They really like the Bears in this situation.
39:55
The public is split, though.
39:57
The public is about two-one in favor of the Bears on the ticket count, but money is coming in heavy on the Packers at about three to one, almost three to one in favor of the Packers.
40:06
So it's, it's kind of a toss-up in this situation.
Rob GPANELIST
40:46
Uh, what kind of action you seeing in this game?
35:12
Are the bettors not believing in Shedeur?
35:15
Yeah, there's a lot of Shedeur, uh, the, the detractors out there.
35:19
So, uh, we have quite a few, uh, people betting against him in this situation.
35:24
Uh, as you know, the Raiders, their defense is, uh, banged up, their offense is banged up, but the Raiders, uh, that's where the, the sharps are coming in.
35:31
They came in at minus three, laid to three and a half.
35:34
We're up to four right now.
35:36
Uh, although the ticket count is about...
37:45
I know the Steelers are kind of bummed out that he's not playing.
39:12
Overs are five to one in the Cowboys the last six games, and I'm assuming that most of the action is on over there with them, right?
39:20
Well, you know [chuckles] that's a funny thing you should say because, um, ticket transaction, uh, you know, 'cause the Raiders can't score recently and the Cowboys put up a stinker as far as p- scoring points last week, uh, when they... before they went on their bye.
39:34
Uh, ticket count's about three to one on the under, but the money, the money, the actual big money that's coming in on this total because they know the Cowboys', uh, defense isn't allowed any, uh, body to, you know, s- they've allowed everybody to score.
39:48
It looks like the money's coming in, uh, at about a three to one clip on the over.
39:52
So, uh, the sharps haven't really done anything with this on this total.
39:56
Uh, so the, the public is split.
39:58
You got the big money coming in on the, on the total over, but you got the volume of transactions on the under.
41:31
So does that affect this line at all, just kind of the history of them and losing twice in a row?
33:50
Look, the Browns aren't great this season, but I can't imagine anybody's taking the Jets plus two in this game, right? And that's not even counting them trading away two of their best players in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner.
34:01
Kelvin, you're absolutely right.
34:02
I mean, this is a situation where, I mean, Dylan Gabriel, uh, the public is all on him money-wise, uh, ticket-wise.
34:10
Five to one in favor of the Browns, uh, as far as tickets.
34:14
Uh, seven to one in favor of the Browns as far as money.
34:17
And the Sharps, once we open this number at two, uh, Jets favored two, the Sharps have pounced on plus two, plus one-and-a-half, plus one, uh, minus one, and now we're at two.
34:28
So that tells you where the Sharps have been on this game.
37:22
With that in mind, how much action are we seeing with the Niners plus four and a half?
32:17
Would the spread move if it was either Justin Fields or Tyron Taylor? And two, is anybody crazy enough to take the Jets in this spot anyway?
32:26
You know, actually, that's a good question.
32:29
I mean, we've had some money once we originally opened this game.
32:34
You know, obviously, they took the Bengals and Joe Flacco.
32:37
Public's about 5-1 in favor of the Bengals.
32:41
Money, though, is even in this situation.
32:44
But Whoever they name it, I would imagine if they named Fields as a starter, you might see that money.
35:50
Where are the Sharps on this game?
29:05
No?
29:07
So, so in this situation, you know, this is almost like a semi home game for the Jaguars to play over there so much.
29:14
Um- Yeah, they sure do 'cause they can't draw f- flies in Jacksonville.
29:19
[laughing] Yeah, so, so what we're looking at in this situation is, uh, looks like the money's about 50-50, even Steven on the money, but ticket count is in favor of the Rams at about two to one, and the Sharps have laid off this game.
29:33
They have bet this total under 46 and a half.
29:36
We're sitting m- pretty right now 44 and a half.
29:39
But Sharps are definitely not on this game, and it's, uh, low level bets right now, like I said, about two to one in favor of the Rams.
30:08
So the Sharps, where are they at on this one?
33:41
So what kind of action are you seeing on this game?
33:45
It looks like the public is definitely, definitely in favor of the Broncos.
33:49
About a 3-1 clip in tickets.
33:51
Although money on here is a little split, you know, from the ticket activity.
33:56
The money is about 4-1 in favor of the Jets here.
33:59
This is one of our big losers for the house right now.
34:02
And the Jets don't cover the 7.5.

5 MINS LATER

39:13
Now, with that in mind, I have to assume the Sharps are all over the Lions plus two and a half on the road in Kansas City, right or no?
33:52
And then what kind of action are you seeing on Baltimore in this spot now that they're getting two and a half?
33:58
Yeah, there's a couple quarterbacks.
34:00
You've got to look at Josh Allen in Buffalo, and Mahomes are probably worth that swing with their team if they were listed as playing and then out.
34:12
But really, it's been since he was questionable, it's been all Texans money.
34:18
I mean, really, all Texans money.
34:20
It's about 8-1 in favor of the Texans.
34:23
Ticket count small in favor of the Ravens, 2-1.
36:11
What kind of action are you seeing on this game? I mean, that is incredibly low.

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