Is it purely just a top 20? Are you sprinkling on a top 10? Walk me through your process.

Yeah.

I, I...

Real quick on the, I guess, the unit management for me, there's gonna be some top-end guys that I'm betting this week, so for these guys, usually I will dabble, and I think for official plays, I, I probably won't bet outrights.

I'm, I'm greedy, though.

If I have someone in the top 20, maybe I'll throw a couple bucks on them to, to win it.

But for me, for, you know, I guess official plays, these are guys who I'm probably just leaning towards the top 20 marks just because of the fact that, again, I'm gonna have some units tied up to guys a little bit up, up, up the board a bit.

Talk me through what you need to see for him to finally break through and to win one w-with really, arguably, you know, all the lights on him, one of the biggest stages in golf this week.

How does that all kind of fold into your expectations for what we're gonna see? And does anything pop off, whether it's the course, the weather conditions, the field, where you're seeing maybe somebody who historically wouldn't have a chance to win a tournament like this, that maybe all of a sudden they're cracking your top 20 or a top 10, and then you're starting to line up some of those longer shots and, and more value on your card?

Yeah, I certainly think the rain could come in, come into play, like you mentioned, soften up these greens.

We've actually seen that happen quite a few times at this course.

I, I, I think I can remember pretty vividly because I've been to this event a few times, just about 25 minutes away from me.

So, uh, even when, the year that Rickie Fowler won in that playoff, there was some rain that morning.

I remember the year that Nate Lashley won, I was on, on site for that one.

There was some rain there.

Where do you come down on his course fit, his historic performance, as opposed to this blistering form that he's in right now?

Where is your cutoff here, or are you diversifying? Are you taking him to win outright top five, 10, 20? But why was top 20 the one that you brought specifically for this placement wager?

Yeah, it's been a, it's been a question I've been asking myself about Hatton here for the, the, I guess, the last, like, 24 hours, I suppose.

Um, obviously he projects really well for me.

He grade- graded out well.

Last week I brought him to the show as an outright pick, talked about how I bet him top 20 and top 10 as well.

Obviously cashed the top 20, but can't help but be a little bit disappointed based on what I think he should have done.

I mean, when you look at his profile from just last week alone, he gained strokes in every category except for approach, which does not sound like a Tyrrell Hatton week.

If you go ahead and do a blind taste test, you know, blind resume, don't put his name up there, you're probably closer to what, 25 to 1 on a price like this? Like, what is the deal with this number?

Royal Birkdale, what can you tell us about it? What do bettors need to know about the layout of this golf course?

Yeah, last saw this course on the open rotation in 2017, but a lot of major renovations happened on this one.

Pretty much every hole was touched to a minor extent with a couple of major changes here on different holes, uh, and including a couple holes that are just entirely different.

Completely, you look at the, uh, the par four fifth hole, that's now drivable, so I think that's going to bring in some, some new things into, into the data set that we're looking at comparing to a 2017 data set.

I mean, for me personally, it's almost 10 years, so that stuff does get sort of muted to me in terms of what I'm kind of calibrating for this week, but it is worth noting that for anybody that is looking at what we saw in 2017, a lot of changes to the course.

Obviously, at any, you know, overseas, uh, open event here, we're gonna have that link style course where, again, wind is going to really play a major factor.

I know we talked about that a little bit at the US Open at, at Shinnecock, but it's gonna be potentially even more of a crucial thing here.

Who won't win? Do you have a couple of names in mind that you would say most golf fans know who these individuals are, and you wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole in the Open?

Kyle, where are you headed here in terms of an opening headline as you discuss the course? You have the star-studded field, you have the impact of the wind, you have, you know, a, a bit of this feel as though you have to go super low, and sometimes, as Spencer was just alluding to, that, you know, pressure can burst pipes, and all of a sudden people are missing some putts that they should be making 'cause they know they're gonna have to chase probably 17, 18, 20 underscore to be able to win here.

Yeah, I mean, all, all great points there.

I think you guys both nailed it.

I, I think, um, obviously one of the first points you brought up, Mike, was just the way that the off the tee play might come to fruition here, where obviously there's a lot of places to put yourself into that aren't all that penalizing.

That was one thing that I found.

I, I mean, driving accuracy is always good to have.

I mean, never hurts to be playing from the middle of the fairway.

How do you do that as it relates to your model?

So in this case, and I know some of it is dictated by oddsmakers and what books are offering in terms of the head-to-heads, why do you like this particular matchup, Kim versus Cantley, Kyle?

Yeah, I think you make a great point.

I mean, I also wanted to outline that I'm not necessarily an anti-Patrick Cantlay guy, especially this week.

Obviously, last week, I played him in the top 20.

And like you mentioned, he's been a guy who's performed very well here.

But I think that all kind of comes together into allowing us to have some value here on Siwoo Kim over Cantlay.

Minus 125 is where the number is.

Is there any other explanation that you see for his number being in this neighborhood?

season long you're looking at this as a success but then you're looking at the last few rounds that he's played and that's a bit worrisome how do you kind of filter that out do you feel as though you're cherry picking a bit or do you think you know the season in its totality leads you to believe that he's a solid bet at this price

Yeah, I think it's a great question and a good point.

I think the way that I sort of thought about it was if you flip these performances, right, like let's say the truest was played last week or when the Memorial was played, probably feel a bit better about Ricky.

And, you know, when you look at those last five starts in particular, especially with the two top tens and the two missed cuts, T60 at the PGA.

You see a little bit of volatility, but when you actually look at his profile over the last year, over the last 12 months of what he's actually putting on paper here, he's actually been pretty consistent.

When you look at that small window of those five events, typically it's not a player that you're necessarily dying to bet in a market like a matchup market.

Typically, maybe you're looking at more of a volatile market there, but The way that these two profile actually lean towards Ricky being the more consistent golfer and Cam Smith being the opposite.

now you turn it over to kurt kudiyama 72-1 he's never made a cut at a us open so what is the market missing that you're seeing and clearly you know if this is someone who puts it all together the 72-1 is the kind of hit that can change the fortunes quite literally your bankroll for the entire season

It's in your book.

Well, you know, yeah, there's a variety of kind of uses or places where we used science fiction examples.

One is the common iRobot examples from Asimov that are about really, you know, how do you make sure that these tools don't turn on humans? Um, and I think what a lot of people don't appreciate is really that was just a narrative device to help create tension in the story because right away, uh, the machines violate those rules or find a way around them.

But I, I, as we look forward and we kind of think about the need for guardrails was one and how we think about, uh, uh, I don't know that you can, if you ever get to, you know, a super intelligence, you can constrain it.

But the tools we're creating now, we can certainly constrain.

Another example of where we talk about science fiction is just sort of explaining the leap forward we've made already and where we may go next.

I mean, you and I are both old enough to have grown up in a world where there weren't mobile phones.

Yeah.

It's in your book.

Well, you know, yeah, there's a variety of kind of uses or places where we used science fiction examples.

One is the common iRobot examples from Asimov that are about really, you know, how do you make sure that these tools don't turn on humans? Um, and I think what a lot of people don't appreciate is really that was just a narrative device to help create tension in the story because right away, uh, the machines violate those rules or find a way around them.

But I, I, as we look forward and we kind of think about the need for guardrails was one and how we think about, uh, uh, I don't know that you can, if you ever get to, you know, a super intelligence, you can constrain it.

But the tools we're creating now, we can certainly constrain.

Another example of where we talk about science fiction is just sort of explaining the leap forward we've made already and where we may go next.

I mean, you and I are both old enough to have grown up in a world where there weren't mobile phones.

Yeah.

Well, how do you, how do you, how do you look at that from the LIV to the PGA and Masters, uh, translation, and do you have any thoughts on the, on the LIV guys this week?

Yeah, that's been actually a super tricky modeling aspect the past few years with all majors, 'cause, you know, you come from, uh, you know, before LIV you had all the data that you really wanted that's very consistent for each player.

I mean, there was, uh, Euro Tour guys that weren't, you know, as, um, you know, easy to translate their, you know, model numbers in, compared to the PGA Tour guys.

But obviously adding that LIV wrinkle has, has changed some things up because it's not only, uh, you know, a different tour, it's just a completely different game over there.

They're playing with fewer guys, they're playing a team aspect and, you know, obviously they're not playing as many holes.

But I think for, for this week specifically, uh, my model has been lower on some of these guys, so I've actually been looking for ways to maybe, uh, strengthen the signal on some of this LIV data.

But, um, when you get a lot of the, the strokes gained stuff from them, it, it's not as reliable in my opinion as some of these PGA Tour because obviously, you know, strokes gained at its heart is, uh, how the, how a player's performing compared to the field, and the field just isn't as, you know, significant as it is on the PGA tour.

Uh, any thoughts on either, any of those three?