And did you see that the voters who backed Republicans two years ago simply stayed home or did some actively move toward Democrats? Because we did have a high turnout.

Yeah, all of the above, I think.

I mean, I think there's evidence that there were Republican voters who stayed home.

Also, it's obvious that some of the groups that swung the most toward Trump in 2024, specifically voters of color in general, Latino voters in particular, and younger people, they swung very heavily back toward the Democrats in 2026.

There's some limited evidence.

We're going to need more analysis of this, but this was something that showed up in some of the early vote analysis that came out before the election that Young Republicans in particular were very demobilized.

And you could see it in like Georgia, where, you know, the younger black voters were actually turning out in greater numbers than younger white voters, even though Georgia is a very diverse state.

Similar to what we saw with Kamala Harris with Joe Biden.

What does it tell us about national trends?

It tells us that this was just a Democratic wave of immense proportions, bigger than a lot of the big recent wave elections in the United States.

I mean, it looks like Democrats are going to win the national house vote by a 12, 13, 14 points.

And when you see a state like Mississippi shift so much that it could potentially be electing a Democratic senator, there's a lot that goes into it.

One of the things that it's clear that happened across the South is that Black voter turnout was strong and white voter turnout wasn't as strong.

And so the mix of the composition of the electorate was just more Democratic-leaning.

But also you're not going to get a swing of this magnitude without a lot of persuasion, meaning that a lot of people who are reliable, typically in the past reliable Republican voters, decided to go to the Democrats as a protest against the president and his policies.

You know, what is the takeaway here and what is the reason? Yeah,

And Kyle, can you give us a little kind of peek behind the curtain? What goes into making the predictions at Sabato's crystal ball?

Yeah, I mean, it's the polling.

And in previous cycles, one of the concerns we had had is that polls might have been too loaded up for Democrats and that they were underestimating Republicans, particularly in states like Ohio.

That was true even in 2018, let alone in the presidential years.

This time, the polls underestimated Democrats.

I think it was such a big wave that you might not believe the polls.

But again, I think the polls in general were pretty good.

What did voter turnout look like in Ohio? Were there notable changes in the makeup of the electorate or the issues that motivated voters that you noticed on your end?

But is there a reason this one seems to be getting so much more buzz, so much more conversation? Or is that just an illusion that we're seeing at this point?

As someone who follows elections on a day-to-day basis and have for many years, I always feel like the elections are getting a lot of attention, but I'm also really close to it.

I will say that in recent years in American politics, turnout has been relatively high.

I I also think divisiveness is high.

And so if you feel like the stakes of the election are higher, which I think a lot of Americans do, that motivates you to turn out.

I mean, back in the 90s, we had pretty lousy voter turnout.

But I think part of that was that people didn't feel like the stakes were that high, which maybe is actually kind of a healthier way of looking at it.

Is there a possibility that he will make that much of a difference?

And then in the corner, I see margin of error plus or minus 11%.

Well, and it goes, I think if you just take the polls at face value, you'd say Democrats are going to win the Senate.

And look, maybe that's what's going to happen, but I do think you have to be cautious about the possibility, particularly, you know, we know that The Economist had some good research about this, Patrick Graffini, a Republican pollster, has talked about this, that You know, Republicans can be understated a little bit in red states.

Democrats can be understated a little bit in blue states.

So maybe that helps explain why, like, the Minnesota Senate race feels a little bit closer, although the New York Times had that as a big lead for Peggy Flanagan yesterday.

But that, you know, and also just think about it.

If you have, like, a 45-45 poll, and that's what these polls are showing the Democrats ahead narrowly, but, you know, a 45-45 poll in a red state, well, Who are the undecideds? Well, they're probably three-time Trump voters who are maybe a little skittish on the Republicans this year, but you might expect them to come home.

And J.D. Vance is like, if you're complaining about it, stop whining.

Do you agree with me? And if you see the parallels, as a sports fan too, how do you see these two kind of intersecting with each other?

I absolutely agree with that.

You know, both sports and politics are data driven, although I think there are some key differences.

You know, I guess I guess probably baseball is the most analytically driven of the, you know, the major the major American sports.

And like you can you know, you're not going to be perfect on all your calls.

But but I mean, and I feel like the amount of data that particularly in baseball that there is is like it's just kind of incredible data.

And so you can know that, you know, okay, this guy hits lefties at 400 and he hits righties at 150.

Dan Osborne in

What happened?

A big focus on the Carolinas.

North Carolina got even less competitive.

It goes from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.

And South Carolina, which has seen a real late influx of money and attention from the president and elsewhere, that goes from Likely Republican to Leans Republican in our ratings.

And, you know, broadly speaking, I think the Senate really is kind of right on the butter knife overall, although with a week to go, I I think the Democrats might have a little bit of an edge, but it would involve, I think, I mean, there are a lot of different races that Democrats would need to win, but we've been talking about Texas.

I don't know if Texas is a must win, but I'm kind of looking at Maine and Texas, two really different states, two tough races.

And Kyle, does Crystal Ball have any alterations to its House map?

Okay, Mississippi, for real.

I mean, I don't think the Democrats are actually going to win down there, but both parties are spending money in that state now.

of money, or Texas amounts of money? No, not Texas amounts of money, but a million dollars a piece, it looks like.

There's been some other Democratic spending in that state.

And the state can also have more competitive races, not necessarily different from the presidential level.

Cindy Hyde-Smith, the senator there, her wins have been much more modest than Donald Trump's were.

They had a competitive governor's race just a couple of years ago.

Give me some context for what this ad could or could not do in the final stretch.

Where does he sit at the moment? Where do you think he can be effective for the Republicans and try and win back some of what appears to be a Democrat-sided win at the moment?

The president's position is just a lot weaker than it was even in the 2018 midterm, which is the last most comparable election in the first midterm of his first term.

Back then, the president was at about minus 10 net approval.

So his approval is about 45 percent or so.

His disapproval is about 55 percent or so in the exit poll conducted in the November 2018 election.

And that's bad, but it's not horrible.

Trump's approval now is basically more than double as bad.

How much does it matter, the early turnout? How much of a signal is the early voting towards which direction we could go?

That's a highly regarded newsletter on election races, which is published by the University of Virginia.

The US House of Representatives seems very likely to flip to the Democrats.

It's pretty common for the non-presidential party to gain ground in the midterm, particularly in the US House.

Democrats already won 215 seats in the House in 2024.

218 is the majority making numbers, so they need to do three seats better than they did in 2024.

Been a lot of drama about redrawing the maps and other things throughout this cycle, but Democrats have been favored to win the House the whole time, and they're probably as big of a favorite now as they've been at any time of the cycle.

The Senate, I think, is still very much up in the air.

if we follow the money what are you seeing in terms of where the parties are spending in these final weeks of the campaign and what that tells us

Are these unique to each individual seat, or is this just something indicative of a wave happening?

Yeah, it's much more the forest than the trees.

You know, we could talk about the specifics of a lot of these races, but the overall environment is really what's pushing us to make a lot of changes.

And we've moved a lot of things in our ratings toward the Democrats, you know, House, Governor, and Senate.

Since Labor Day, I think a lot of us were waiting to sort of see what would happen after the summer and, you know, the start of the sort of traditional campaign season.

Started, of course, the campaign season goes way before Labor Day these days.

But what we saw at Labor Day was that The president's approval basically still kept getting worse or staying in a reduced position.

What's going on there? I

What did you change and why today?

Well, there are a lot.

There are more than two dozen rating changes.

And that's been sort of a theme since Labor Day is that there have been a lot of races that seem to be moving toward the Democrats as the kind of the wave style environment kind of solidifies.

But a number of them move from, you know, toss up to leans Democratic.

A lot of classic swing seats across the country, a couple in Arizona, one in one in Colorado, a couple actually in North Carolina.

And, you know, we see Democrats with a small edge in these races.

atmospheric wave.

And then maybe you could help us understand, does does the Republican Party have a path to victory here or is it really the Democrats are just so much? It's very unlike.

Yeah, I mean, when I when I use the term path, like I wrote an article, I don't know, maybe within the last month or two.

about basically the path to 218.

And by path, I mean the districts, because, you know, most of the districts are either safe Dem or safe Republican.

But there are still several dozen districts across the country that profile as being, you know, competitive from year to year.

And, you know, In some years, it's going to be the bluer districts that are more competitive because it's a Republican-leaning year.

This is a year where some of the Democrats could cut into more of the Republican territory.

And I wonder how likely is this in the House? Are there any candidates? Is it possible? And so how can a candidate whose party, like it's moving away from their party, can they rise above and outrun their party? Have you seen this? What might that look like? Yes, they can,

Kyle, what is on your mind about Alaska?

Well, look, it's a strange election system in that state.

They have this top four ranked choice voting system.

All the candidates run together in the primary of all parties, and the top four advance to the general election, and then ranked choice voting decides it.

Mary Peltola, the former Democratic House member, challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.

There's another guy named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, and there's also another Republican.

And so the rank choice, the setup of the top four may actually be helpful to Beltola.

And Kyle, your thoughts about what Republicans are trying to do to mobilize their base?

So that's at least 24 GOP-held seats that are quite gettable for Dems right now, yes? Can you talk about that pool of seats and explain what that big picture means?

Yeah.

Look, I, I think, you know, again, w- we've been, particularly after Labor Day, we've been kind of steadily moving races toward the Democrats and sort of, uh, as we sort of pick up on, you know, microlevel factors, but also in acknowledgement of what the, the macro, you know, the big-picture factors are.

And, uh, you know, and, and, and I feel like our moves have generally been vindicated by some of, some of the reporting.

Uh, you know, Tom Kean in New Jersey 7 appears to be an underdog.

He's an underdog in our ratings.

Um, that w- that, that's just, just one of them.

Those are your coming changes, right? Can you explain why you're making these changes and what their bigger significance is?

So that's at least 24 GOP-held seats that are quite gettable for Dems right now, yes? Can you talk about that pool of seats and explain what that big picture means?

Yeah.

Look, I, I think, you know, again, w- we've been, particularly after Labor Day, we've been kind of steadily moving races toward the Democrats and sort of, uh, as we sort of pick up on, you know, microlevel factors, but also in acknowledgement of what the, the macro, you know, the big picture factors are.

And, uh, you know, and, and, and I feel like our moves have generally been vindicated by some, some of the reporting.

Uh, you know, Tom Kean in New Jersey 7 appears to be an underdog.

He's an underdog in our ratings.

Um, that w- that, that's just, just one of them.

Those are your coming changes, right? Can you explain why you're making these changes and what their bigger significance is?

Kyle, let's talk to you first about the designations you made today, where and why.

So there are a number of red state, uh, Senate races that have, you know, Republican incumbents the Democrats are targeting.

You know, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, those all seem to be fairly close to competitive.

Um, there have been a few fairly respected polls that have had Mary Peltola, former House member, Democrat in Alaska, leading Republican senator Dan Sullivan by six or seven points roughly.

It's also a strange election system in Alaska, 'cause they do this top four ranked-choice voting system, and the way the ballot is structured is helpful to Peltola.

She's the only Democrat.

There's Senator Dan Sullivan, there's another guy named Dan Sullivan [laughs] and then there's another Republican.

In the most recent history, Republicans have been pretty solid on governor's races, but Democrats are feeling like they are in the House and Senate, a bit bullish this time.

Has that happened?

Doesn't seem like it has.

It doesn't mean that it won't happen.

But I certainly, if you just look at the public data that's out there, I wouldn't necessarily say that it's getting better for Republicans and it may actually be getting worse.

And, you know, to the point about, you know, you almost look at this election cycle with a cut point decision to attack Iran on about March 1st.

You know, the president has lost maybe about nine, 10 points of net approval since then.

And You go back to 2018, his net approval was about minus 10.

But how about Texas and Florida? Because I'm hearing from Republicans that the redrawn districts there may not play as favorably as they originally thought when they drew them in the first place.

Kyle, are you seeing the same things, question one? Question two, how has it influenced your rating perspectives, House, Senate?

Yeah, look, I mean, I think that a lot of the polls suggest what Anthony has, a D plus eight environment, kind of similar to 2018.

One of the ways you could think about it is that the president won the national popular vote by about a point and a half in 2024.

Republicans did it a little bit better in the overall House vote.

So you go from R plus two to D plus eight, that's a 10 point swing.

So all of a sudden, some of these states that were voted for Trump by 10, 11, 12 points that have some of these big Senate races, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, all of a sudden, you know, you move the whole thing over 10 points.

I mean, not every place is going to move.

And Iowa very quickly?

So is that what's going on? Just to take up Montana for a minute, is it plausible that that's what's going on in Montana?

It is plausible, although I would also say that we have it as a safe Republican race.

Others do, too.

So it's not like I'm sitting here telling you that it's really close.

The states that worry me more are like Iowa and Ohio, where you've also seen instances where it's like, oh, it's really close, and then it actually isn't even all that close.

I do think the polling is probably going to be better in the midterm.

I also think the polling industry has done maybe a better job of trying to account for kind of the people they can't reach, specifically the kind of lower social trust, you know, typically Republican voters.

Tell us why.

Uh, let's start with Iowa, a state that Democrats seem to be high on, but you seem to be more, uh, leaning in the Republican category.

Yeah, I actually think-- I, you know, I think Ashley Hinson is a pretty decent recruit for Republicans there.

You know, she held, um, she held one of the state's House seats and, you know, Joni Ernst retired.

Um, it, it may even be that the, you know, swapping out, um, Ernst for, for Hinson may have actually been a little bit of a, of an improvement, because Ernst was having some, some problems near the, you know, right before she, um, she announced her retirement.

Uh, you know, the Democrats have an interesting nominee in, in, uh, State Rep Josh Turek.

You know, I k- just keep coming back to the, the sort of baseline partisanship of Iowa.

And actually, I mean, I think the Democrats are probably gonna win at least one of the state's House seats.

Tell us why.

When we talk about likely voters, for those who don't understand, what does that mean? And how important is the modeling underneath that?

So you could do polling of three different kinds of groups.

And it's like the circles get smaller.

So it's all adults and then registered voters, which is the smaller group, and then likely voters, which is the smallest group of all.

So those are people who not only say they're registered voters or they show up on the voter file, but also that you determine are likely to vote.

And of course, voter turnout can be smaller in midterm than it is in a presidential.

Presidential, you're talking about 60%, 65% of eligible voters showing up.

Its effects.

I jumped in studio to have a conversation with Kyle about why these forecasts are the way they are.

the Democrats have pretty credible candidates in these places.

You know, I think particularly Ken Paxton in Texas has been very weak and doesn't seem to be running a particularly inspired campaign.

And so you've got Republicans just dumping on him left and right.

And, you know, at the end of the day, you'd probably still rather be Republicans in states like these.

But, you know, the president's approval is very likely underwater in all of these states.

Now, that doesn't mean that his approval rating, it's, you know, everyone who approves him is going to vote for Republicans and everyone who disapproves Is it going to vote for Democrats? It's more complicated than that.

And if you haven't already, subscribe to our channel and subscribe to our new podcast, which has multiple reports a day, conversational, unscripted, efficient with your time, wherever you get your podcasts and audio.

He might be the only type of Democrat that could win that race, but the way it's drawn, how difficult will that be for him?

Well, so it voted for Trump by nine points in 2024, and, um, right now in 2024, Democrats only won a single seat that was, that was that Republican at the presidential level of Maine's 2nd District, which is, uh, uh, the northern, uh, you know, northern district of, of, of Maine.

Um, however, uh, Florida 25 did vote for Joe Biden by five points in 2020.

Now, of course, Florida itself shifted so strongly from 2020 to 2024, um, and, you know, Democrats have been, have been, you know, really, really on the wrong side of trends in, in, in Florida in recent years.

But, you know, six years ago it was a district that Biden won, and not just by a couple of points.

Um, it is...

You know, religious statistics are, they're, they're kind of harder to, to nail down than some other kind of demographic characteristics, but there's some estimates that suggest that, um, this version of Florida 25 is something like, um, 25% Jewish, um, which is, you know, w- one of the highest, uh, uh, concentrations of Jewish voters probably in the whole country.

That seems to be the expectation at this point for a number of different reasons, but you also have this red wall, uh, that's been built here in Florida, and how could that impact her holding on to her seat in Congress?

Does this race represent that? Or is this a single race story?

Uh, I do think there's a trend.

You know, I think over the summer, kind of going into a lot of the primary season, the thought was, well, you know, is there, is, are the Democrats actually going through the, you know, their own kind of Tea Party moment that Republicans went through and arguably are still going through, um, you know, 15 years ago after Barack Obama got elected.

Um, the initial results from primaries were kind of mixed earlier this year.

I do think the results from the summer do point to kind of a growing strength for kind of more left wing, anti-establishment forces within the Democratic Party.

Um-

Mm

... is another one of those districts.