So what, what does Meadow Heights mean for you, and what does it mean for essentially animating the data that we've been talking about?

It's very much a, a story of...

It's a, sorry, it's a suburb that clearly illustrates what we've been talking about with regards to those c- communities that have started be- becoming a very significant problem for the Labor side of politics.

Uh, I, I'm basically born and bred in Meadow Heights.

It's one of the poorest suburbs in the state of Victoria.

It was when I was growing up.

However, at that time, when, when I moved up there, had a sense of optimism.

One, what does life look like for this particular cohort of vulnerable women? And can Pauline Hanson, who has made a career out of attacking women and women's place in society, in effect, can she speak to these people, uh, to these women?

Yeah.

The critical bit here is whether these people are able to report to us as pollsters.

This is the issue that drives me to the ballot box to vote for her.

When we do ask that question, is immigration a salient issue to voting behaviour? And it boils down to around a third, slightly higher, of the entire One Nation vote is principally driven by the immigration is an issue.

Two thirds of them are not.

They're driven by a sense of an economy that's not working.

Governments, multiple governments across multiple years, failing their communities, failing the health system, not keeping up with their growing needs.

So people often talk about support for One Nation being a grievance vote, but it sounds like these people are right to be aggrieved.

the, the existence of a buffer or something?

Yeah, that's right.

So let's, let's look at, for example, uh, the ability to withstand a climate event, being a bushfire or flood.

Uh, which communities are most vulnerable or have the least capacity to handle an event of that nature? And that doesn't necessarily mean someone situated in a flood-prone or bushfire-prone area.

It is someone who doesn't have the capacity to actually respond to it.

Again, the same applies with financial resilience.

Um, individuals who, all, uh, the- we have millions of Australians on a mortgage.

80% do less exercise than re- than recommended.

It shows them losing their vote, doesn't it?

Well, the Labor's losing votes to One Nation and to other minor party candidates and parties, et cetera.

However...

they are compensating that loss with harvesting votes from their left flank, largely from the Greens amongst older constituencies.

And that's the thing that's going on under sort of the sheet ice that no one can see, and that is there's a lot of movement going on between groups and it's kind of portraying – and we've seen this now for six months – Labor's primary has largely been around 28 to 30 for a very long time now, probably all the way back to April.

One Nation's vote's in a very similar sort of space, and the coalition's been hovering between the high teens and low 20s, and nothing really has changed.

But what is changing is that demographic churn under the surface where we actually can't see it from a simple polling perspective, but those of us who obviously collect the data over a long period of time, we could see a lot of movement here.

How do you connect with people's anger and get them to see you as a beacon of hope?

So when you look at the numbers federally, the only thing Labor's really got going for it is the fact that the 70% of the electorate out there who don't want Labor in office are split across a multitude, predominantly on the right, but there is some on the left with the Greens, a multitude of parties on the right.

Yeah, that's right.

And they're geographically contained too.

So a lot of that vote is in regional Australia.

So I wouldn't rule out, unless something changes, and it can change, we are living through an absolutely transformative period in our democracy.

You end up with a lot of Labor seats in the big cities and a lot of One Nation seats in the bush and the regions and provincial centres.

So that means Labor will lose pretty much most of its regional real estate, whatever it's got left to One Nation, unless something changes in the polls.

shifting.

Do you think that the coalition without One Nation can form government by itself, can get to the 45-plus seats that you need to govern in this state?

Yeah, because of the precarious nature of the political landscape right now, I wouldn't rule out, for example, the coalition getting to 50 seats with a primary vote of around 31, 32, because it starts winning all these three-way contests.

And so what I mean by that is that because we now have three big parties basically having a sizable chunk of the vote, not huge, you end up with three-way contests everywhere.

And...

Up until June, I would say that One Nation was going to win quite a lot of those.

They've dropped in support since June, and the coalition has benefited from that drop.

And so they will start winning a lot of those three-way contests.

Do you think there'll be many contests where actually Labor and One Nation are the two top parties?

Do you think that the coalition without One Nation can form government by itself, can get to the 45-plus seats that you need to govern in this state?

Yeah, because of the precarious nature of the political landscape right now, I wouldn't rule out, for example, the coalition getting to 50 seats with a primary vote of around 31, 32, because it starts winning all these three-way contests.

And so what I mean by that is that because we now have three big parties... basically having a sizable chunk of the vote not huge you end up with three-way contests everywhere and up until june i would say that one nation was going to win quite a lot of those um they've dropped in support since june and the coalition has benefited um from that drop and so they will start winning a lot of those three-way contests

Do you think there'll be many contests where actually Labor and One Nation are the two top parties?

Yes, absolutely.

Out in Melbourne's western suburbs, northwestern suburbs, out in the southeast of Melbourne, some regional electorates.

Yeah, I think it's now easier for One Nation to take seats off Labor than it is the coalition.

So that means One Nation will win some seats? Yes, yes, correct.

What kind of impact do you think this confusion within the party has?

Yeah, the impact would be pretty simple, and that is that there is now a feeding frenzy on the superannuation funds of Australians, and I don't think that the Australian public will be, will be at all impressed.

We, we're getting numerous policy announcements and conflicting policy announcements about how Australian superannuation funds can be accessed, used, utilized to offset policy challenges which the political class have refused to actually come up with.

Most of the Australian public know that the economic problems facing this country, and most of the world, are quite systemic and entrenched, and having a battle of Band-Aids, so to speak, is not exactly what the Australian public's staffing for at the moment.

And, you know, when we speak to many Australians who are well into their 50s and sitting on very big mortgages, for example, they, they understand that the personal economic challenge they face is quite significant, and they are absolutely anxiety-ridden about the prospect of actually still having that mortgage when they're 67.

They're kind of beating the Coalition to the punch here.

Yes, and the Coalition's problem is if they're not going to contrast themselves from One Nation, then all they're doing is they're telling the voters that they've lost t- to, to One Nation, that they are no different to the party that- Well, these Australians have moved to out of one very big driver.

The coalition has not represented them economically now for a number of years.

The thing is, does One Nation have the answer or do they not care about that? It's just more, we're just not giving Labor or Liberal our vote.

Yeah, for the moment, it's the latter.

And we're not sure as to whether that will change and whether these voters sooner or later will like to see something substantial come from One Nation.

But at the moment, it's simply, you know, One Nation for them is their battering ram to pull down a system they think has ignored them, is culturally disconnected from them.

And when I say culturally, look, it boils down to even, you know, we had this by-election in Western Australia where One Nation won on the weekend, and the Labor candidate didn't even hide the fact that she didn't live in the electorate, that she lives in, you know, some well-off suburbs in Perth's north.

Yeah.

And it's that sort of conduct, I think, which really does just drive voters mad.

Just with the Victorian election, I know these polls I've mentioned are federal polls, but how many lower house seats do you realistically think one nation could win?

And the fact that Ben Carroll is more popular as Premier than Jacinta Allen was, I mean, that's nice for him, but that doesn't seem to be shifting people's votes.

Look, it provides an opportunity for his side of politics to build a campaign that might shift that primary vote by three to four points.

If that happens, then we're looking at a totally different contest.

But the only, I would say, trend that we're seeing right now is, yes, we're seeing One Nation declining support.

It's largely coming off One Nation and going to the coalition.

And so Jess Wilson's campaign seems to be working to a certain extent in bringing back some of that disaffected vote off One Nation.

Ben Carroll's job is to do the same.

Do you think people would buy the fact that all Ben Carroll's policies seem to be the same as the Liberal Party's policies?

And the fact that Ben Carroll is more popular as premier than Jacinta Allen was, I mean, that's nice for him, but that doesn't seem to be shifting people's votes.

Look, it provides an opportunity for his side of politics to build a campaign that might shift that primary vote by three to four points.

If that happens, then we're looking at a totally different contest.

But the only, I would say, trend that we're seeing right now is, yes, we're seeing One Nation declining support.

It's largely coming off One Nation and going to the coalition.

And so Jess Wilson's campaign seems to be working to a certain extent in bringing back some of that disaffected vote off One Nation.

Ben Carroll's job is to do the same.

Do you think people would buy the fact that all Ben Carroll's policies seem to be the same as the Liberal Party's policies?

Does that spell danger for them down the track if they don't deliver?

Yeah.

The, the tendency for younger people to respond to economic stress is one that, that we've always seen, and that is a 45% of, uh, women between 18 and 28, uh, uh, intend to vote Green, for example.

So there is a threat for them on their left side.

Uh, there's no doubt about that.

So then we're not seeing, uh, y- you know, any, any potential fracturing of their vote going to One Nation.

It's more likely to break into the left, like we're seeing in-

So for One Nation, is there a path, given the size of their voting block, is there a path towards majority in, in, within Parliament?

Does that spell danger for them down the track if they don't deliver?

Yeah.

The, the tendency for younger people to respond to economic stress is one that, that we've always seen, and that is a forty-five percent of, uh, women between eighteen and twenty-eight, uh, uh, intend to vote Green, for example.

So there is a threat for them on their left side.

Uh, there's no doubt about that.

So then we're not seeing, uh, y- you know, any, any potential fracturing of their vote going to One Nation.

It's more likely to break into the left, like we're seeing in-

So for One Nation, is there a path, given the size of their voting block, is there a path towards majority in, in, within Parliament?

I mean, Kos, in your view, is the government reassuring voters that their own policy settings set in the May budget are on the right track?

Look, what we hear from Australians is a high level of, I would say, disappointment in terms of how the, the entire s- uh, policy framework is working for them, their families, their extended family w- with regards to housing.

In terms of housing prices, what we're seeing in our research is individuals who did not buy at the height of the market, so that's between, uh, let's say 2020 to about 2023, are still quite comfortable in seeing property prices drop, and that's because they, they understand there is a consequence of very high house prices for their children, their grandchildren, and so on.

The Australians that bought at the height of the market, they're the ones that clearly are very, very stressed about this.

At what point will it be too late for the government to change course if they don't see that message resonating in the polls?

Look, the way the political landscape sits right now, it's very balkanized.

So what is left on Labor's column are people who are unlikely to vote for One Nation, even if the economy worsens.

You might find younger Australians will move probably to the Greens, um, so Generation Z in particular, and that is obviously the generation that is now confronting the housing crisis more than anyone else in this country.

I mean, Kos, in your view, is the government reassuring voters that their own policy settings set in the May budget are on the right track?

Look, what we hear from Australians is a high level of, I would say, disappointment in terms of how the, the entire s- uh, policy framework is working for them, their families, their extended family with regards to housing.

In terms of housing prices, what we're seeing in our research is individuals who did not buy at the height of the market, so that's between, uh, let's say 2020 to about 2023, are still quite comfortable in seeing property prices drop, and that's because they, they understand there is a consequence of very high house prices for their children, their grandchildren, and so on.

The Australians that bought at the height of the market, they're the ones that clearly are very, very stressed about this.

At what point will it be too late for the government to change course if they don't see that message resonating in the polls?

Look, the way the political landscape sits right now, it's very balkanized.

So what is left on Labor's column are people who are unlikely to vote for One Nation, even if the economy worsens.

You might find younger Australians will move probably to the Greens, um, so Generation Z in particular, and that is obviously the generation that is now confronting the housing crisis more than anyone else in this country.

It's too tight." But since then, I imagine you'd moved on and said, "Look, the, the Liberals have a real possibility, uh, of winning, particularly if they go into some sort of deal with One Nation."

Yeah, that's right.

I mean, we've now published, I think since we last spoke, several polls that in, at the, uh, that indicate that, where the Liberal Party can win up to about thirty-five seats, as, uh, sorry, the Coalition, uh, and the rest is gonna made up, uh, made up by One Nation.

M-most of the damage that's being inflicted on Labor right now is actually from One Nation.

Uh, there are some gains that the Liberal Party are, are enjoying at the moment based on our research in the east, east-eastern part of Melbourne.

These are, you know, your, your Box Hills, your Ashwoods, your Glen Waverleys, those sort of electorates.

Um, there's a surge of the Liberal par- Liberal primary in that part of Melbourne in, in a very significant way.

Our best case scenario now is to win." Would you subscribe to that under Ben Carroll, or is it simply too early to tell?

Polster and social researcher Koz Samaras spoke to us about politics and the rise of One Nation in previous episodes but in this scenario I really wanted to talk to him about transparency in politics and how this could contribute going forward.

The art of compromise is important and needed in public debate and decision making, but it shouldn't become the absolute norm where you are constantly compromising and cutting corners and doing deals.

Because at the end of the day, the Australian public have developed a view that that compromise is an industry, a political industry, and they don't like it.

And if there's nothing wrong with it, then you shouldn't have an issue telling them.

In absence of that honesty, people jump to conclusions and conspiracies.

So they will say, for example, after the Bondi incident, that the reason why the Albanese government was not acting strongly was because of Tony Burke's relationship with the Muslim community, which is not right, not correct.

But that missing clarity initially and decisiveness that was missing allowed that vacuum to be filled with absolute crap.

That repeats itself all the time.

One of the main topics I wanted to talk to Cos about was actually about the rise in popularity of One Nation And while our conversation took place just after the South Australian election result, during which we saw an uptick in support for One Nation, we know that this trend has continued since.

What we are seeing is an abandonment of support amongst Australians for the duopoly or established politics in general.

They have many types of Australians that are moving to One Nation.

They're primarily in the outer suburbs and regions.

They are overwhelmingly in their 40s, 50s and 60s.

predominantly have a TAFE or trades qualification.

And increasingly, I would say the support for One Nation is attracting a larger demographic footprint as well.

We also talked about what he sees as the long-term multi-party failure to address some of the issues that have resulted in the uptick in anti-Semitism we're seeing now.

Are they the people that are the ones that have moved or are there some surprising moves about who's come off One Nation in the past two weeks?

Yeah.

Pauline's, um, Coalition of voters, the mo- her most vulnerable vote is that pa- is that group that's come late and it's largely come off Labor and this group is prone to an ACTU campaign.

Uh, you know, it's a sort of group that you would say, uh, will bite down hard on any industrial relations, uh, uh, issues and will probably mark her down on some of the stuff she did at the Press Club, which wasn't probably the m- most...

the best strategic things she could have done.

And particularly when it comes to, uh, you know, her position on, on workers because what we've seen, her growth since last year is overwhelmingly by, um, uh, being granted to her by people who are salaried, wage earners, working class people out there in the outer 'burbs and regions Who have lots of debt or they rent.

Um, they don't own any, any assets beyond that.

So what are you noticing in what voters are saying to you on top of the numbers, but when you actually talk to them?

And I was about to ask you the question just on the trends that you might be seeing as far as AFL support and whether or not that is something that the AFL would be looking at and saying, hey, we're in good shape or there's some alarm bells here.

I think like any sport, they are really focusing on making sure they capture that next generation because when I was growing up, when I turned five years old, I knew straight away which club I had to follow because it was the club of my parents' choice.

And it was also the club which dominated the geography in which we were situated in, right? So we were defined by place, we were defined by, I would say, intergenerational sort of club heritage.

That's all gone now.

So now, basically, if you're following, let's say, the Essendon Football Club, you're not necessarily doing so because of where you've grown up.

And you're probably not necessarily doing so because of who your parents followed.

And so that's now completely accelerated as a trend for two reasons.

But I wonder whether in your research you're finding amongst these younger demographics now that it's the cult of the individual that is far more of an attraction to these younger fans than loyalty to a team?

when w- we look at it, uh, say for example, in Western Sydney or on the Gold Coast, is there something particular about the, the, the, the demographics there or the culture or what... or, or the, the, um, uh, the ethnicity of those areas that has presented such a challenge to generate, uh, support for those new franchises?

Yeah, I mean, if you go out to Western Sydney, it's Penrith, and Penrith is dominated by the NRL, and the NR- NRL's got a very long history with, with those communities.

And so that's one of the very few examples where you do find a sporting code or a club defined by place and geography, but that's rare.

Um, what we're see... what we are seeing is that, you know, across the country, um, you know, various codes are having to struggle for, uh, a, a fan base and a player base that is actually, um, you know, quite fragmented.

Good example, Melbourne's outer western suburbs.

Um, you know, the, the... it's one of the fastest g- growing parts of the country.

Uh, and the most popular sport out there at the moment is, um, in t- uh, for summer sport is obviously cricket and the mo- and the most successful sport up there is cricket.

Yeah.

Do modern-day migrant communities not quite feel the same way?

I think you made an excellent point here, and that is about the geography that used to actually anchor support for a particular club.

So to the point you made around whether if you grew up in Richmond, you followed Richmond.

If you were in Collingwood, if you were in Thornbury, you probably followed Collingwood and so on and so on.

That doesn't exist anymore.

It doesn't exist across the entire fan base.

So no longer do we see a geographically driven fan base phenomena.

Is that, you know, push into hostile territory working for the AFL?

So it really doesn't kind of fit with the Australia you're describing with a lot of frustration and economic despair and a sense that it isn't working for much of the population.

Yes, the part of Australia that I'm talking about is one that I think doesn't make it in the clips when it comes to people observing Australia from outside.

And it is out of suburban regional communities that have actually declined significantly from an economic perspective.

There are very significant pockets of poverty in this country.

And the contrast, and to your point, In our big cities, things are going quite well.

So the disposable incomes have actually increased in the inner parts of our large cities exponentially over the last three to four years.

So it depends on where you live, your, I would say, education qualifications and the professions you actually are employed in.

But perhaps those on the right are a bit quicker, even, dare I say it, a bit smarter about tapping into that anger and turning it into political support.

But if your house is going to end up being sold for less than what you've paid off or what you, you've certainly bought it for, you're not gonna be happy.

Yeah.

The group you gotta look for, um, with regards to that challenge, and it's a real one, is anyone that's bought a property probably from 2020 onwards.

That's, that's when it was at the peak of the market.

They, they bought it at, at the top of the market, and now they're gonna lose equity on their, on their properties.

Individuals that bought, like, 10 years ago, they c- they will be upset they're losing a bit of what they've accumulated, but they're still gonna accumulate a profit.

Um, but it's that group that bought after 2020, and it's that group that we're finding in our research is also incredibly despondent about the future.

Give me your sense of things.

Now, one is, d- d- does that agree with your research? And two, wha- wha- what does it mean for the Victorian election?

Yeah, it does, absolutely.

Uh, we're seeing that right across the country.

We also, prior to that week, also, uh, um, published for the Australian Financial Review a, a model which basically predicts every single federal seat, um, based on those numbers.

And you could see writ large what that effect has, and that is that One Nation wins a lot of seats, uh, mainly off the Coalition but also off Labor.

We then come to Victoria, and yes, you're gonna get a very similar, uh, I would say, uh, pattern emerge.

If these numbers hold, and I expect One Nation to be polling really, really well in Victoria, they, they will be the largest, um, p- uh, party outside the Labor Party when it comes to seats won come November if nothing changes.

W- could Jess Wilson be premier even if her party has fewer seats than One Nation?