Tell us a little bit about what the composition of this council looks like and what surprised you last night about that vote.

Well, I always remember that, you know, opposition brings people together and sometimes governing fragments it.

So that is always also the beauty of Toronto City Council.

Unlikely allies coming together.

You know, Mayor Chau works really well with, say, John Burnside, who's centre-centre-right leader.

um on council and and she'll have to work through that working coalition she has seven new counselors uh including uh counselor mike layton who was a phenomenal returning counselor um there's not the institutional memory or the procedural memory of a counselor fletcher or counselor perks that not having those veteran counselors on council will also be a challenge and and how much will the the rookie class or even the sophomore class uh start to freelance so managing that um i often say uh managing toronto city council is like herding cats and you need a really big bowl of milk um it's it is my favorite place as i've said repeatedly but it is complicated and it is understanding who they are as individuals not as labels You know, it's not all the progressives or it's not all the environmentalists.

They all come at their activism in very different ways.

Okay, Kim, final observation from you on Toronto Boats 2026.

They seem to want to still pretend it's 1998 sometimes.

Look, so City Hall is a different place than federal and provincial politics.

There is coalition building.

There are opportunities also for individual members of council to move issues and move the agenda and move the conversation forward in a way you don't get in a truly partisan, in a purely partisan setting.

But let's take a step back.

Mayor Chau won the largest raw vote direct election in Canadian history.

That's a massive amount of people who came out and voted, giving Mayor Tao a pretty substantial mandate to move forward on a number of issues, including housing, including her approach to homelessness, which was moving people out of encampments into housing programs with wraparound services.

What's next for her?

They seem to want to still pretend it's 1998 sometimes.

Look, so City Hall is a different place than federal and provincial politics.

There is coalition building.

There are opportunities also for individual members of council to move issues and move the agenda and move the conversation forward in a way you don't get in a truly partisan, in a purely partisan setting.

But let's take a step back.

Mayor Chau won the largest raw vote direct election in Canadian history.

That's a massive amount of people who came out and voted, giving Mayor Chow a pretty substantial mandate to move forward on a number of issues, including housing, including her approach to homelessness, which was moving people out of encampments into housing programs with wraparound services.

What's next for her?

Kemp?

I mean, campaigns are often not a place for a healthy dose of reality checks, which unfortunately, you know, how the city budget actually works would be one of them.

How it's very different than Queen's Park or Parliament Hill, both in terms of how a mayor works and needs to bring together a working coalition.

Um, but even, you know, how you can do debt supports and how do you get all sorts of things.

Now I can talk chapter and verse for the next, you know, 20 years cause that's what I've been doing, but there, there has been a bit of that.

I think if there is anything that has, I would say if I have a, you know, a criticism of some of the things that the mayor's campaign has done, it's been not talking about the things that she's actually accomplished at City Hall.

Talking about like, you know, seven day a week library services.

How does Brad Bradford govern with that kind of administrative force coming from a more progressive point of view, Kim?

Kim, is it enough?

Yeah.

So we're you know, and listeners have heard me say this, right? It's where do the votes come in on Election Day and how do you have a ground game that gets them into the ballot box? Yes, there were some advanced poll wards that were a little lower than I thought they would be.

But at the end of the day, that's also because many of them are open or really hotly contested council races.

So I'm not surprised that some of those as people are sorting out who they want to vote for in the council races that they haven't cast their ballot on the mayoralty yet.

But polls are going to go up, polls are going to go down.

You know, I've said this, Amanda Alvaro, you and I were talking about this offline.

I don't want to see you here until after 10.

It's more a race maybe than a lot of people thought three weeks ago, but it certainly is tighter for the incumbent than maybe she thought a month ago.

Perhaps, but as any political analyst has watched, a shockingly surprising Main Street has...

Brad Bradford in the lead.

I've actually had on my bingo card for months now that I would expect it in the last week of the campaign.

Main Street is also in the past had Bonnie Crombie is going to be premier while she's running for her job again in Mississauga.

All of this to say, this is always going to be a GOTV effort.

It was always going to be.

But is there any pivot you think the campaign addresses today? They see these poll numbers and they say, we could go this far or make this a priority in the next six days.

It's more a race maybe than a lot of people thought three weeks ago, but it certainly is tighter for the incumbent than maybe she thought a month ago.

Perhaps, but as any political analyst has watched, a shockingly surprising Main Street has...

Brad Bradford in the lead.

I've actually had on my bingo card for months now that I would expect it in the last week of the campaign.

Main Street is also in the past had Bonnie Crombie is going to be premier while she's running for her job again in Mississauga.

All of this to say, this is always going to be a GOTV effort.

It was always going to be Scarborough.

But is there any pivot you think the campaign addresses today? They see these poll numbers and they say, we could go this far or make this a priority in the next six days.

Kim, we've had all the debates, the policy announcements, plenty of campaign activity, but my question is, any of it cutting through, any of it genuinely changing the conversation among voters? Or in we, are we in a campaign where people have largely made up their minds and the real challenge is just getting them to the polls?

So the short answer is yes to all of it.

It does matter.

People are, various people are paying attention.

There are still debates happening.

Why? Who knows, but they are.

Both council races and mayoralty races, uh, still have debates.

If you're advising the campaigns right now, you can choose one, you can choose both when you answer this question, what is the one issue you want voters to understand about that candidate before they cast their ballots? Kim, I'll start with you.

But I also would not under emphasize the progress, progress, Toronto, progress, Toronto, progressive, get out the vote machine who last time, mobilized and then the advanced polls and that's what put mayor chow over the line so i actually think my spidey sense like taking off all partisan hats which i i pretty much do on this podcast i think it's actually like a bit of both i think that both chow has a machine there and they're good at advanced polls but i also think like that's this is way too much of a turnout to just subscribe to that and i actually do think there's something else happening here

A couple of things.

Politicos have been really good over the last few elections, federal, provincial, municipal, of if you already know what you're doing, go vote because you don't know what you're doing on election day.

Weird things happen.

So there has been a shift.

You know, we talked about this last week.

I used to be a day of voter.

Frances Nunziata, what is happening out in her ward? And what about this open Toronto Danforth seat? I'm curious about, Kim, what are you thinking about some of these council races and how consequential will they be for governing as we get the next mayoral result in?

Mm-hmm

... out with an endorsement of Olivia Chow saying about trust and leadership.

Uh, but also pointing out, which I frankly thought was a bit weird, uh, was that, uh, m- uh, Brad Bradford hasn't met with the Toronto Police Association.

You know, he's talking about crime and all these things, but not talking to the association, not talking to frontline workers.

Uh, so I thought that was a bit passing strange when I read that.

But again, it comes down to trust and leadership.

And, you know, Olivia Chow has done a lot of things on crime and safety.

Mm

What do you attribute that to?

I think, you know, moving Chris Alexander out of being on the debate stages and Let's be candid, Olivia has never been the greatest debater.

Her skill sets are more in the doing than the debating.

So I think that's where we're seeing a lot of that.

But what I, you know, Greg, you and I have talked about this in previous elections where we look at in Ontario as an example, the Ontario Liberal Party votes would be very high in a poll vote.

But it's the on the ground, how much the NDP runs up the scoreboard in certain areas that that's what I'm looking to.

And that's what we certainly look to in municipals.

A, do you agree with that? B, would you change that up a little bit and be a bit splashier in the last 13 days?

If you haven't been paying close attention to this race and you're sitting with your friends over Thanksgiving dinner and you just want to know what is my key takeaway for each of the candidates, Kim, what would you say beyond what I've just described or elaborating on what I've just described that people should think about when they think about Olivia Chow this weekend?

So what she's done in the last three years since winning in the by-election was the hard work of rebuilding.

There were a lot of programs that weren't working.

We had the literal train go off the tracks in Scarborough.

We had lots of construction that wasn't happening.

There was a lot of encampments.

Encampments are actually down 70%.

Are either of them being sufficiently clear about what their promises will cost? And is there a risk that voters are being promised more than City Hall can realistically deliver?

Yeah.

Um, that's where you start to look to.

Now, if you're, if you're on the Bradford campaign, what you're looking for is to over-index in North York, Scarborough, uh, north Etobicoke, to offset, uh, how, how little he would normally traditionally do in, um, Spadina-Fort York, Parkdale-High Park, uh, Beaches-East York.

That's traditionally, and then of course the Yonge Street corridor becomes battleground.

He needs to super over-index because she is going to do naturally better in those areas.

It's also, you know, you would think he was the longtime councilor, the eight, an eight-year councilor for Beaches-East York, he should do better.

What we saw in the by-election was him not even winning that.

[laughs]

Mm-hmm

... statement and his press conference, uh, that there would be no endorsement forthcoming.

Um, I don't think that, uh, if, if I were the Bradford folks, as much as today they were like, "Thank you for, you know, all of your service, uh, to country and cause and city," you know, they've been kinda dicks to him all this election.

Mm-hmm.

And how does that come out? Uh, the other part of, of this is if you're team Chow, first you look at where do those people go to, or how do they show up? Uh, but it also gives a very clear mano a mano-ish v- uh, you know, vote, and does that scare enough of Chow voters who might have looked at polls-

Uh, there's no delineation between the po- the plan.

Well, so you're, you're suggesting that every doctor and lawyer also has means and opportunity.

Maybe somebody didn't make a lunch that day, maybe they did.

Uh, and so there's ...

We'll, we'll park that for a second, because that's truly not everybody has means or opportunities f- to make sure those, those kids get to school and have the food that they need and are able to learn throughout the day because they're well-fed.

Um, I, in fact, used to work for a school trustee that represented very affluent communities, and you wouldn't know by looking at postal codes that those kids were very hungry or didn't have the opportunities to eat.

We're also talking about de-stigmatizing.

Let's, let's talk sports

Right,

but the amount of kids in the John Hughes movies who looked like they were well taken care of because they had the right car, the right clothing, were actually often neglected.

at home in other ways.

So, but we also need to make sure that there isn't the stigmatism of, of, you know, oh, you're the poor kid.

You should, you're getting the breakfast program, right? Like how you do this.

Now you're also looking at how do we make sure that kids achieve the best they can possibly do? And every statistic will tell you that kids that aren't hungry do better in school, not emotionally hungry, but physically hungry, the physicality of it.

So that's what we're looking at.

Okay, let's talk

How influential can an organization like Progress Toronto actually be in a municipal election, particularly in lower turnout ward races where a relatively small number of votes can actually matter?

Eh, look, they are, they have been doing this for years.

A lot of organizations are.

We're seeing an explosion of them, A Better City or ABC Toronto, uh, IntegrityTO's.

Uh, in fact, their, their head, uh, is running for council.

So we're s- we've been seeing this for years, unions, organizations behind the scenes.

They are just a bit more codified in, into this.

Which are unfunded

Can you do some pro bono work with these five OLP candidates and not can we not have spread cheeks and Ford in the same sentence ever again? Could we do that also?

Yeah, I love the boorishness of this.

And then to amplify it and watching the video of it, Eric knew exactly what he was saying, exactly why he was saying, and he was hoping for this clickbait.

Again, boorishness.

And he should know better.

And anyone trying to run for premier of the province who is finger wagging at Premier Ford or anyone else for boorish comments, It frankly should be better.

I know Eric has had a hard time breaking through on some of his policy stuff and has taken to his social pages to complain that media isn't covering him.

It's just that simple.

Can you do some pro bono work with these five OLP candidates? And can we not have spread cheeks and Ford in the same sentence ever again? Could we do that also?

Yeah, I mean, look, the boorishness of this and then to amplify it and watching the video of it.

Eric knew exactly what he was saying, exactly why he was saying, and he was hoping for this clickbait.

Again, boorishness.

And he should know better.

And anyone trying to run for premier of the province who is finger wagging at Premier Ford or anyone else for boorish comments.

frankly, should be better.

It's just that simple.

Kim, are you buying Amanda's argument or do you feel differently about this

one? As one of the people who people used to throw meat into a closet while I was doing all this research.

Thanks for that.

Um, I always appreciate snacks.

Um, It's a slightly different thing, especially when you combine it with the Brad Bucks app thing they were touting not that long ago.

And yeah, there's always going to be people on a campaign who find new ways to create data because those with the best data, the cleanest set of data, you know, generally have the better chance.

It feels a little, it does feel a little ick to me.

What is your observation for these final four weeks?

Is this election now becoming a referendum on Olivia Chow's record, rather than a contest between three competing visions for Toronto?

So, y- you know, every election is an in- a referendum on incumbents, and I think that that's just generally your, you have a record.

What is different about municipal politics versus federal and provincial is that if you're elected at ca- city council, you also have a record.

And so there, there are those... and, and in much more of a meaningful way than provincially and federally.

That's not to say that opposition parties don't do anything.

They do lots.

But there is a voting record, there's the ability to collaborate with your colleagues, there is the ability to move motions.

Yeah

Kim, thoughts?

Yeah, I think there's there you kind of want to race a bit if you're the child campaign, not always too much of a race, but to make sure that people get motivated to get to that ballot box.

But what I did find interesting in the liaison poll were the underlying numbers, the unfavorables in which the Bradford campaign went from a net unfavorable, like they dropped down about 14 points since May.

in the net unfavorables.

In particular, there's a gender gap.

And maybe, just maybe, that's why we saw that cringy video last week where Brad's wife told him to smile more, followed by a video today of him going to Tom's Place, which is a Kensington Market institution in Toronto.

And Tom, the owner, was telling him with his new tie, he should smile and let the world smile with him.

But thus far, it is not to me looking like it's stacking up as a change election, which that is a benefit to the current mayor.

That's a bad thing for an MP to admit or a variation thereof.

Yeah, I think there's a couple of different things.

Always people are going to say it's never enough.

Oh, it's the center's running it.

Or as we like to used to say, the kids in short pants are running things.

And there is always some truth to that.

You know, it's been a long time since we've had leaders in the public sector, the private sector, certainly in government, who can, you know, who pick up the phone and routinely just check in with their with their caucus members and people throughout the legislature.

So Carney's done the same thing at least twice in the last four months.

So does that tell us that Bradford is found at opening or does Chow have enough of a record to neutralize it? Kim?

So I think it's a bit of both.

And one of the interesting things on that list of questions and topics and concerns, and one of my colleagues actually got polled, so it was interesting.

But there was no listing of housing in that list of questions and issues that are important.

Crime and safety is always going to be a huge issue in every municipal election.

So That's always going to be part of it.

Obviously, it's aligned with Councillor Bradford's messaging around crime and safety.

What do you think each candidate needs voters to understand about them coming out of tomorrow night's debate? Kim?

Now,

when the premier gets to a microphone, gosh, as we all know, all bets are off.

So he's going to answer questions however he's going to answer them.

I think what the premier... gave some permission to with some conservatives who might not, you know, have ever thought in their lives they would put an Olivia Chow ex on a ballot.

But here we are.

I love the wonderful thing about municipal politics is we get to play with everyone and across the political spectrum, both on campaigns and in voter preferences.

uh it's not just a little bit of working together they have unlocked mayor chow has gotten billions and billions and billions of dollars the first the first phase of the new deal you know that was 11 billion dollars into the city of toronto's uh coffers taking off the gardner dvp it's not just a pain from a from a transportation standards management but but a lot of budget room that she was able to free up to go and fix parks and do a bunch of other cool things.

present this morning.