I'm guessing you like that a little bit better, Kevin, a 85-75 put spread than just the 75 put straight up, sir?

Oh, yeah, definitely, especially if you have geopolitical risk.

No reason to give yourself outsized type of risk, especially if you're trying to sell premium.

If you're a downside mover and you think that it's going to continue to move lower, I mean, those 75s do look attractive from a premium standpoint.

It just depends on how you want to play it.

Do you want to sell a put spread? Do you want to sell a call spread? It kind of just depends.

I think right now there's still a lot of premium on the wings that you can kind of harvest into.

What's catching your eye out here this week, sir?

I'm guessing you like that a little bit better, Kevin, a 85/75 put spread than just the 75 put straight up, sir?

Oh, yeah, d- definitely, especially if you have geopolitical risk.

No reason to give yourself outsized type of risk, especially if you're trying to sell premium.

Uh, if you're a downside mover and you think that it's gonna continue to move lower, I mean, those 75s do look attractive from a premium standpoint.

Uh, it just depends on how you wanna, how you wanna play it.

Do you wanna sell a, a put spread? Do you wanna sell a call spre- You know, it kinda just depends.

I think right now there's still a lot of, uh, uh, premium on the wings that you can kind of harvest into, and that $75 level, that's pretty much where we were kind of consolidating around back in June.

What's catching your eye out here this week, sir?

Have you been watching this new CME product? What are your thoughts on a 50% annihilation? And then B, what else is catching your eye and the downside, sir?

Yeah.

Yeah, I would say that's obviously a new product.

So you're going to see a lot of volatility as volume comes into it.

And I always compliment the CME.

They do a phenomenal job bringing new products to market that allow traders and investors to be able to hedge a particular physical portfolio.

So I think that's always going to be great.

What's catching your eye in the world of crude and Brents and heating oil and all that fun stuff?

What are your thoughts on a 50% annihilation, and then B, what else is catching your eye in the downside, sir?

[laughs] Yeah.

Yeah, I would say that's obviously a new product, so you're gonna see a lot of volatility as, as volume come to, comes into it.

And, and I always compliment the CME.

They do a phenomenal job bringing new products to market that, that allow traders and investors and, and, uh, to be able to hedge [laughs] a, a particular, uh, physical portfolio.

So I think that's always gonna be great.

Uh, you know what, we already kinda talked about the cattle market.

But what's catching your eye in the world of crude and Brent and heating oil and all that fun, sir?

But it seems like they're still getting some supplies out of Saudi Arabia at this point.

Yeah, I would say it's a little bit mixed when you're looking at the fundamentals.

I mean, oil on a historical basis is still a little bit underpriced.

You're talking about the East-West pipeline, that 50% of that could actually be brought back online.

That pipeline is actually two pipelines that are kind of brought together for that east-west pipeline.

So there's one that is for specifically crude oil, and then there's another one that's for the byproducts.

I have not heard yet from Saudi Aramco which one is actually going to be back up and running.

What's your take here on this central bank policy action?

I

tell you, you hit on a few key points that have been themes or trends in my journey and transition from a military construct and way of living and thinking to not only a civilian construct, but a healthcare construct, and then a Southeast Louisiana healthcare industry specific construct.

How do you exist in all these different spaces? And to be clear, I am still in the Air Force Reserves.

So I still straddle both worlds.

It's like having dual citizenship in those two countries, right? It's what it feels like.

I often find myself very early on, I would translate, let's say I may receive some information in healthcare terms, I would translate that to military or government or something that was very familiar.

And I think others could relate to this because I would imagine as you go from corporation to corporation to corporation throughout their professional career, you're translating from one cultural experience to another cultural experience.

There have

KG.

Well, Sam, good morning.

We are actually seeing yields moving a little bit higher here and a little bit of volatility within the markets after this.

Jolt's data actually came out a lot better than the street's expectations.

For the month of April, Jolt's came in at 7.618 million.

Street was looking for 6.86 million, and that's better than what we saw for last month, which was also revised higher to 6.68%.

million here.

I know you're looking at a chart there.

Walk us through what you know and the price action we're seeing in oil right now.

Well, we are seeing obviously oil moving to the upside based on this news.

Last time that I checked, it's up about seven, seven and a half percent so far if you're looking at WTI.

And this is because of the increase in hostilities over the weekend.

We saw some ballistic missiles being shot at when it comes to U.S. bases in Kuwait.

And then we did see the U.S. obviously respond.

So there's definitely a back and forth that is taking place.

Just walk us through how important this is at a time for U.S. housing when we haven't really quite seen that meaningful rebound that everybody was hoping for.

Just walk us through the headlines first and foremost before we look at the charts for oil.

Yeah, we continue to wait and see when it comes to this potential deal.

President Trump has not made a decision as of yet, and we still see some kinetic action taking place, especially over the last 24 hours or so.

There have been claims that Iranians did shoot down a U.S. drone.

The U.S. has obviously denied that claim, at least for now here.

But the market is still optimistic that a deal is going to be had, and we are seeing maybe some pressure being taken off of the oil market, at least for now.

What's going to be actually very interesting here, if you're looking at the EIA data from this week, as well as the API data, we are starting to see, obviously, the SPR draws continuing to be massive, 9.1 million barrels for the week.

Why is the market shrugging off such comments today do you think KG.

KG, just walk us through the most important developments here in the price action.

Yeah, I think the market really does perform well when there is a little bit of a worry about the future of a particular event that gives us a little bit more of a risk on tone in the market.

That's just how we have been able to digest this whole conflict here as we continue to trade near all-time highs.

Over the weekend, there was a lot that actually did take place, a high-level summary.

We did have some discussions going back and forth.

The critical issue between the Iranians still having the nuclear or the uranium in-house.

Seems like that's still going to be a sticking point.

And just any sort of key levels you're watching at the individual name level as well.

What do we know as far as the latest?

Yeah, well, I would say going back to the consumer sentiment really quickly here, it's going to really track gasoline prices and diesel prices.

There's a direct correlation.

So as we start seeing those kind of top out, we should see sentiment actually increase or improve here.

From the Iranian front, there's a lot of news headlines hitting the wire.

Yesterday, we did see that nice reaction to the upside for the equity markets as you started hearing reports that they are getting close to a memorandum of understanding or basically an agreement to have an agreement.

And that gave us a lot of optimism in the equity market as a whole.

Just walk us through what you're watching out for.

What's, uh-- Tell us about the, uh, how this all came about.

Sure.

Well, thank, thanks a lot, Lyndall.

First and foremost, you know, it's been an honor to be a part of this show, to be a sponsor.

And, um, you know, a lot of barbecue guys tune into this.

First and foremost, I just wanna say thank you to the barbecue community for the business and support, friendships over the years.

Um, it's been hugely impactful to us.

... you know, [laughs] I would, I would imagine you never would've dreamed how things evolved over the years.

As you and I have been discussing most mornings, we know that NVIDIA has largely been a catch-up trade, but just walk us through how you're thinking about things this morning.

Well, we are seeing that rebound and trying to recapture some of the losses that we've had over the last couple of trading sessions with memory names actually catching a bit early on.

Let's see if it's going to be able to hold up here, though, Sam, as we do have NVIDIA earnings post the close.

We're not be surprised if we have something called an inside day where we are pretty much range bound earnings.

and trading around some key areas of support as well as resistance.

So if you're kind of looking at the makeup today, we have seen more than 50% of the stocks in the S&P 500 in the green, but we are starting to lose a couple of sectors here.

Communication services, it looks like it just went to red here.

Where are we at right now? What are the charts telling you?

How are you thinking about things right now?

Well, obviously, we are still seeing some pressure, especially when you're looking at the Mag7 names and the memory stocks, and that's really dragging the market to the downside here.

But we have seen some improvement over the last 10 minutes or so here, Sam.

We have about 42% of the stocks in the S&P 500 in the green so far today.

and it's getting once again a little bit more defensive we only had two sectors in the green about maybe 10 minutes ago 15 minutes ago we are now sitting in around five sectors in the green so far healthcare consumer staples and energy kind of leading the way here and behind that you have utilities and real estate so defensive in nature, interest rate sensitive as well, but you are still seeing consumer discretionary selling off, communication services, as well as information technology doing the same.

And you talked about that the 30 years, 30 years at the highest level when you're looking at yields sensitive over 19 years actually.

So back into the curve, not looking really that great.

Just walk us through the latest developments we're seeing here in the price reaction this morning.

How would you characterize where the markets stand now when you look across equities first?

Well, we actually had a pretty decent run off the lows.

So seeing some of that price action on Thursday and Friday of last week was not really too surprising.

We were a little bit stretched when it comes to that 20-day moving average.

And on Friday, we also had the monthly expiration as well.

So the selling pressure did intensify.

And in fact, When you did see the equity market close, the futures continued to move lower about another 25 to 30 points.

What are you watching here?

Just walk us through the data that we got and the reaction in these markets this morning.

Good morning, Sam.

Yeah, let's actually talk about the high-level data first, and we can talk about the components after.

If you're looking at headline CPI, we saw the month-over-month trend coming in at 0.6% as far as an increase.

That matched the street's expectations and was actually lower than what we saw for last month of an increase of 0.9%.

But the year-over-year did actually inch up, going to 3.8% for the headline number.

Street was looking at 3.7%.

Because obviously, WTI, triple digits, once again, that seems to be downing the mood as well.

Green spends six months in South Block before he is transferred to a California state prison in Soledad, a prison on virtually permanent lockdown.

Every time it would come off lockdown, there'd be a riot, a killing, a stabbing, a staff assault, whatever, and it'd go right back on lockdown.

It was just a evil place to live, and I was loving it, in a sense, because I understood it.

I was pissed off and didn't care, but it was eating me alive.

And so God and I had a falling out, a big major falling out.

I pretty much, heart of hearts, told him where to go and how to get there, and I'd buy the ticket.

If this was what God was gonna do for me, I didn't need it.

But then, a strange thing happens.

shock so let's get out to kevin green who joins me now just to get across these latest iran headlines so we got finally iran's response kg via the pakistani mediators which fell short of the u.s demands president trump then saying totally unacceptable but it seems like it's okay because president trump is still meeting president xi jinping this week and we continue to see strong earnings uh we've got the easing bias coming from the feds and the data is basically holding up so just walk us through Your thoughts on what we've heard here and the subsequent price action?

I would agree with you.

At least for now, energy moving higher and equities moving higher does not seem like it's a problem.

Now, we will probably be in a higher inflationary regime.

But at the end of the day, as long as we are able to see wage growth outpace inflation, that's going to be net-net positive for the U.S. economy, at least for now.

At some point in time, it will have an impact.

But right now, especially when we're focusing on the artificial intelligence trade, It seems like that's really carrying a little bit more weight than maybe some of these geopolitical fears.

I mean, is this move today that we're seeing, for instance, what are we looking at? Like a 6%, 7% upside here, that road to recovery here for the metal?

KG, what are some of your thoughts about where we closed? What levels were you keeping an eye on as we were heading into the close, and are you shocked at all about where we closed?

No, I'm not.

I mean, at the end of the day, this is still a bull market.

And technically speaking, we are making higher highs, higher lows, and you have the right components in the S&P 500 really continuing to make gains.

And until you actually see a reversal of that, it's going to be very hard to kind of fade this market.

If we kind of look back, on the three year weekly S&P 500 futures.

What we the last two weeks is an on the MACD for this parti If we go back and look ba Almost two years ago, actually, back in November of 2023, we've had the same type of scenario.

yeah i mean tesla information technology in the semi is really giving us the boost today tesla ended up the day higher by more than four percent uh what else was sticking out to you today i love when you bring the charts so i'm just gonna let you run loose and tell us what you liked on the day

Walk us through what we know this morning.

Well, we are still waiting for the Iranian response when it comes to this proposal by the U.S.

The foreign minister's office did state that they are still reviewing the proposal at this point in time.

And that's really why the market, especially if you're looking at energy, is kind of staying in this current kind of range, if you will.

But the equity market is a little bit more optimistic.

Now, we did see yesterday a skirmish, if you want to call it one, between the Iranians and the U.S. and potentially even the UAE.

That hasn't been completely confirmed as of yet, but it does appear that some tankers were hit and disabled, some Iranian tankers.

Healthcare, retail, we know the story there, but transportation, I mean, does this give you a sense that things are at least broadening out for now, KG?

What did you make of it and how does that set us up for jobs Friday, do you think?

Yeah, we continue to see stabilization when it comes to initial claims.

We saw that number coming in at 200,000 even.

She was looking for 205 and we did see a slight revision to the upside for last week.

It was at 189,000.

I think it got moved up by 1,000 claims there, but overall looking pretty good.

The four-week moving average also sitting at 203,000.

What's the story there, KG?

What are you seeing as far as the numbers?

I'm seeing that coming in at 6.866 million.

Actually, that's better than the street's expectations of 6.86 even.

And then we did actually see a revision to the upside for last month's print.

I believe that's the first positive increase that we've seen as far as a revision for jolts in a very long time here.

So you are seeing job openings starting to maybe stabilize.

Now, we have to be mindful of this particular data set that has actually been very distorted since COVID-19, and we have not really seen a normalization as of yet or even a stabilization.

KG, what are you seeing on that front?

KG, thoughts here on this and everything they're releasing in the report?

I think, I mean, if I'm looking at the numbers here, let's say slight miss when it comes to revenue, just kind of depends on the source.

That's okay.

We kind of knew that that was going to happen coming in because of the EV tax credits that have been able to, that have, for the most part, rolled off here.

But it does make it easier for us to look at the operating margin comps now moving forward because of those tax credits being removed.

I think it's the update moving forward when you're looking at several things.

So you talked about Optimus.

What's sticking out to you as the primary reason behind that?

You want to go through what the latest is?

Positive for the equity markets, positive for the global economy, maybe negative when it comes to the oil markets, as well as some of the byproducts here.

Obviously, we are seeing a move to the downside.

WTI is trading down about 10.5%, close to the $81 level.

And this is on the back of the news that Iran has stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open.

Now, we are seeing some conflicting reports.

There are being reports of IRGC members.

We have seen kind of a broadening of the equity performance over the last six months.