So it is going to claim that despite not being able to get a majority either, it has made an inroad.

Yes, I would say both blocs right now are going to try and spin this to their advantage.

And this is going to play out, as Yossi said, you know, very much with a lot of wrangling in the days to come.

For the opposition, I think last night there was a lot more celebration than this morning when the initial exit polls showed them much closer with the Netanyahu-led coalition.

This morning, though, that coalition has pulled ahead, still far short of a majority.

What you're going to hear from the opposition is that the majority of Israeli citizens, and that indeed includes the Arab Israelis, rejected Netanyahu and his coalition.

So that's looking, you know, a majority of Israelis did do that.

Yeah.

OK, talk us through this diplomatic channel that could be opened up here, because this would be the first direct talks, wouldn't it, involving Mr. Trump?

That's right.

I mean, most of the talks that have been going on in the background have been through intermediaries, Qatar, Turkey, Amman, Pakistan.

So having this direct contact would open up a very different type of communication between these two leaders.

I would still say, you know, often in a situation like this, this is not a summit.

This is not there's not room to have a whole scope of peace negotiations or something like that.

But what it can do is open up a different type of communication in a moment when both of these actors are really ramping up their rhetoric.

Is there any prospect that you could see that if he, say, meets with Iran's president? He loves the pageantry, but at the same time, I guess Iran hasn't really played by Trump's playbook, has it?

But the whole point of the BRICS point, the whole point of raising the BRICS meeting was that there was China saying we will provide an alternative to the American AI system, which, you know, does that actually solve everyone's problems? Does that double the problem?

Well, I think this kind of reinforces what Tiro is just saying in the sense that the concerns are there, but they're just different.

And part of the concern for China is that the U.S. is using AI as yet another pathway for keeping China down, for keeping China, quote unquote, in its place and partly by itself.

controlling the exports of the semiconductors, but also by trying to just keep the U.S. development at pace above China's.

And I would say China right now is trying to present themselves as the alternative, and they're pursuing it in very different ways.

Their models are a lot more open source than the U.S.'s are.

They're trying to streamline AI throughout their economy and into like user into usage a lot more quickly and just making it picked up more.

Julie, what do you want to talk about today? What have you spotted?

So what are these restrictions and actions exactly? What's the detail as far as we know?

Sure.

So I would say there's three main areas.

The first and foremost is a ban on any goods that are produced in settlements coming to the UK.

And those have already not fallen within the trade preferences of the UK, but they will actually be banned now.

So these are often fruits, cosmetics, things like this.

The second area, which is a bit more substantial potentially, is the banning of services to expanding settlements.

What's the reaction that we've seen so far from Israel and also from the United States, Julian?

But if we think about your experiences of the West Bank since October 2023, being the obvious moment it all changes, how has the general vibe shifted?

Yeah, so I was just in the West Bank this summer, and I've been traveling there for the last 20 years or so.

And I would say since 2023, it's just changed massively.

And I think even before that, people are aware there's been settlements for decades.

There's even been episodes of settler violence.

But the scale of the settler violence right now is unprecedented.

There is an average of five to six violent attacks a day, and most of these go with no kinds of investigations or punishments.

Do you see where Miliband is going with this, though? Do you get a sense yet of any kind of clear articulation of what he hopes it will achieve?

If we start with you first, Julie, you've just come back from the West Bank and I wonder what it was like to travel through the hills and valleys of the West Bank with the backdrop of increasing settler expansion, worsening settler violence.

Good morning.

You know, I've been traveling to the West Bank for the last 20 years or so, and I've never seen it the way it is now.

First, just the number of settlements and also what are called settler outposts.

These are kind of smaller settlements that are set up initially without the support of the state.

They are simply all over the place, like you cannot go through any road in the West Bank now without seeing these settlements or outposts literally all around you.

And one coupling with that has been, of course, this surge of settler violence or what has been increasingly called, even by many within Israel, as settler terrorism, just these attacks on Palestinian villages, some that are close to cities, others that are quite rural, but all with the same effect of trying to pressure Palestinians and very much successfully so to leave their homes.

Before we go to Nick, can you give me a sense of what Palestinians in the West Bank are feeling now against the backdrop of what they've seen happen to their brothers in Gaza?

I'm thinking also of Africa.

Indeed, and I would say again, Bronwen, this predates the current war, the current conflict that we're seeing in Iran with a emerging rivalry between the UAE and Saudi, not only in the region, but also in other parts of the world.

And we see the response right now very different.

I, I would say I don't think the Saudi change on normalizing relations with Israel or, uh, entering the so-called Abraham Accords, uh, is really a result of the Iran war as much as, as Gaza and what happened, uh, in the two years prior to this.

Um, Saudi was very clear that they would not, uh, move forward on that without some kind of meaningful movement towards self-determination for Palestinians, a Palestinian state.

Israel obviously is not going there.

So that position was stated before, and the events in Gaza, I think, uh, reaffirm that even more.

And even let me say to you directly, are we looking at the, uh, annihilation of the possibility of a Palestinian state?

Does that leave enough room for negotiation at this point?

I think we can assume that there will be some talks resuming at some point.

I, you know, I'm not sure exactly when those will be, but certainly that window does allow for some wiggle room.

Um, and I would say, you know, Carney, I think this was a strategic move for him to very abruptly, uh, you know, walk away from these talks, say these weren't working for Canada, and essentially put the US, uh, unusually on the back foot in how they're going to respond to this.

And so I think, again, because of the economic relationship between these two countries that's, that's very well known, um, there will be talks to resume at some point.

But again, the political statement, I think, is just as important, if not more so, than the economic one at this point.

Do you see further sanctions having an impact, uh, to get Iran back to the negotiating table?

Yeah, you know, Nathan, it's hard to, to say if that will have an impact right now, b- largely because the US and many other countries have had long-standing strong sanctions against Iran for, for years now.

And this is why they have a concern of that nature.

That's right.

And many in Israel have said this to me is why, you know, why is it rational for Israel to take a risk on this? You know, not only Hamas's weapons, but the tunnel infrastructure still being in place, much of Gaza that would allow for, you know, potentially new weapons to come in.

They just say it's just too risky for us.

And it's there's just nothing.

There's no real incentive for us to even try this.

And I think, you know, Hamas's response to that would be and I think most of us watching any kind of disarmament, decommissioning is always part of a process.

broader, in a broader sense, what is it like in the West Bank right now?

Mm-hmm.

And I think it was clear from the beginning of this war that there was no long-term strategy.

I mean, this was such an ill-conceived war that did not, it had not been well thought out, and now that Trump is stuck in it, he's very much scrambling for a strategy, and there's simply not really any good options.

And I think the, the back and forth for this weekend, uh, you know, really, I think the credit goes to the Gulf countries that you were just speaking about, who in coordinated fashion said to Trump, "We cannot bear another massive es-escalation here, and you need to actually be rational about this and look to other options because this is hitting us so much harder than it's hitting you."

It, it builds loads of stuff that everybody wants to buy.

Yeah, and I would say, like I am not an economics expert on this.

My understanding is that they, that their central bank, um, pr- like prices their inter- their, uh, pegs their interest rates a bit differently than most other banks, so most other countries don't invest in Japan in the same way that they would in countries that offer better returns, essentially.

So they're just not getting the same amount of like external income and investment that you would externally.

Uh, because as you say, there is such a broader context of violence between Israeli settlers and Palestinians.

Absolutely.

And Chris, this is ongoing, and it doesn't make the headlines as much because it's slower and more gradual, but has a massive effect on people here.

In the Jordan Valley today, this is a, a strip of land that runs about 100 kilometers long and about 10 kilometers across.

Um, the places I was just visiting today, again, what was noticeable was, um, was the absence of people, the absence of villages.

We visited some families that have been able to remain, but other places that I visited in the past are literally just piles of rubble now, um, that have been destroyed by the violence of, um, accelerated settler activity in these areas.

Um, about 60 to 70% of families have, um, been forced off their land in these areas, and we just see the massive growth of, um, of settlements, and settlements coming not only with land seizure, but with massive violence and harassment against the local population there.

Uh, particularly when you talk about the Jordan Valley, there's this Crimson Thread military barrier as well.

So could you just help us understand where we're supposed to be, what is supposed to be happening right now at least?

Sure.

So the first phase of the ceasefire that did go into effect was the, um, release of hostages and, um, prisoner, uh, releases for, for Palestinians.

So we did see that piece happen at least, um, uh, partially in terms of Palestinian releases, um, back in the fall.

Um, and there was also supposed to be other measures, including a specific, um, amount of humanitarian aid coming into the strip, which hasn't been met, and also the opening of the Rafah crossing, which has been, uh, minimal at best.

The second phase, though, was always going to be the hardest part.

It's the part that included the, um, the introduction of this technocratic committee, the introduction of an international stabilization force.

But what is the hold up in actually getting this implemented, you think?

What is it about the medium of theater that you think lends itself well to political narratives? And did you ever have any doubts that this book could work in that context?

I'll start with the first question with why make this book into that format.

And I, I will preface it by saying I had seen a play a number of years ago called Speak Truth to Power by Ariel Dorfman, where he had pretty much done the same thing, taken interviews with human rights defenders and, and braided them into a, a show.

I was very impacted by that performance, so I'd always had in the back of my mind I would like to try and do something like that with some of my, my field work interviews.

And this project, the interviews were just so raw, so emotional, so human in so many ways.

The words were almost kinda saying, "We need to be heard somewhere else.

We need to be heard more loudly." And if I may too, just the poetic way that people told their stories, it was very lyrical in the ways that many of the stories were told to me.

I just wondered if there was anything that you learned as someone who studies the region but is now approaching it in this way that they hadn't before.

... uh, you, you have been, uh, walking some of the length of an ancient monument.

Yes.

This last weekend I went and did trekking on Hadrian's Wall Path up north, which, um, you know, obviously dates back to Hadrian's time, like, two thousand years ago, and it's a wonderful path.

It's, uh, coast to coast from Newcastle all the way to the coast.

It's about eighty-five miles.

And, um, yeah, the middle part is just, it's just fantastic.

It's, like, history and hiking and just fantastic views, scenery, and then just, like, ruins that you just go walk up and, like, can, like, look at them and, like, learn some things.

[laughs]

Julie, where do diplomatic efforts stand and what are the signals both sides are putting out, big and small?

Well, good morning, Vinny.

You know, with both of these ceasefires, as Ismail said, they're both extremely fragile.

So we need to remember that in the meantime, that either could kind of fall apart at any time.

But we do hear this talk from Trump now about these extensions.

And I would say on the Iran side, it's Trump is trying to use this economic leverage right now with the blockade, but he is still very much keeping military options on the table.

A third U.S. aircraft carrier arrived in the Gulf this week.

But I mean, is this sort of have they made any inroads with the Trump administration at all to kind of get a unified position?

Tell us about the educational work of the UN at this time and the introduction of the American Quakers.

Yes, this is a very interesting time period in Gaza's history that I think we often skip over when we're just focusing on the military events and the wars.

But what happens in the immediate aftermath in Gaza is really crucial to, I would say, some of the cultural foundations for Gaza and for Palestine more broadly.

And this is that very early into this war, pretty early into 1948, we actually see the American Friends Service Committee, or the Quakers, are sort of tasked by the new UN to assist with humanitarian services for refugees, for those who are displaced.

The Quakers, interestingly, had been involved in some of the refugee services in Europe after World War II.

And the Quakers are very intentional about trying to set up not just, you know, food aid or medical clinics, but also schools and an education system.

And they open a system that is not only open to boys or to the elite, but really to everyone, to boys and girls, to anyone from any background.

The upshot of this is the Camp David Accords, or am I just eliding much too much detail when I just link those two directly?

Tell us about the educational work of the UN at this time and the introduction of the American Quakers.

Yes, this is a very interesting time period in Gaza's history that I think we often skip over when we're just focusing on the military events and the wars.

But what happens in the immediate aftermath in Gaza is really crucial to, I would say, some of the cultural foundations for Gaza and for Palestine more broadly.

And this is that very early into this war, pretty early into 1948, we actually see the American Friends Service Committee, or the Quakers, are sort of tasked by the new UN to assist with humanitarian services for refugees, for those who are displaced.

The Quakers, interestingly, had been involved in some of the refugee services in Europe after World War II.

And the Quakers are very intentional about trying to set up not just, you know, food aid or medical clinics, but also schools and an education system.

And they open a system that is not only open to boys or to the elite, but really to everyone, to boys and girls, to anyone from any background.

The upshot of this is the Camp David Accords, or am I just eliding much too much detail when I just link those two directly?

... with an angle to the Middle East. And to have her on here after what we see in Yemen, uh, is truly a pleasure, from the University College London, Professor Norman, uh, this morning. When, when we go in with jets, multimillion dollar jets, and attack the Houthis, Julie, describe the landscape of Yemen and wherever the Houthis are.

Yeah. Well, good, good morning, Tom. I'm not sure I've created the field of terrorism studies, but nice to be with you. Um, yeah, I mean, so I would say... First, I would say these are not the first strikes on Yemen that the US has been taking. There were numerous strikes that were, um, undertaken under the Biden administration when these Houthi strikes on, on ships in the Red Sea started over a year ago. So this has been ongoing. Um, Yemen is a country that the government is divided. The Houthis, um, control the capital of Sana'a and some of the northern areas. This is where most of the strikes took place. Um, but again, I would say this is something that is happening in a wider regional moment as well. A lot of this is Trump trying to put pressure on Iran. I think this is really where, where this, uh, where these, um, uh, strikes over the weekend are coming from. And, uh, we can kind of expect some escalation what we saw over the weekend.

Julie, what do we know about the Trump administration's policy towards, uh, Iran? How do you think they're gonna approach it?

Yeah. Well, I mean, we've obviously heard the, uh, maximum pressure, uh, speak for a while, and I think we're starting to see what that looks like. You know, we've already seen much, uh, harder sanctions going on for Iran, which was expected. But moreover, we saw this letter sent by Trump to Iran last week essentially saying, "You need to negotiate and essentially give up the nuclear program or be prepared for military action to take it out." And we assumed that would be, um, you know, through, through US and possibly with Israel as well, which has been threatened in the past. So this is what I think is, is ratcheting up now. Um, and I think these strikes on the Houthis were...... part of the Trump Administration's calculations for that. With that said, for me, the Houthis operate with a bit more autonomy from Iran than, than I think the administration is, um, is recognizing here, and I'm not sure how much Iran could, could rein them in, even if they wanted to.

When we go in with jets, multimillion dollar jets, and attack the Houthis, Julie, Describe the landscape of Yemen and wherever the Houthis are.

Yeah, well, good morning, Tom.

I'm not sure I've created the field of terrorism studies, but nice to be with you.

Yeah, I mean, so I would say...

First, I would say these are not the first strikes on Yemen that the U.S. has been taking.

There were numerous strikes that were undertaken under the Biden administration when these Houthi strikes on ships in the Red Sea started over a year ago, so this has been ongoing.

Yemen is a country that the government is divided.

Julie, what do we know about the Trump administration's policy towards Iran? How do you think they're going to approach it?