Okay, why are you selling Julia?

I think when I look at a potential investment, I like to look at it through a short-term, medium and a long-term lens.

And I think Xero from a valuation perspective looks okay from a short and medium-term lens and potentially an opportunity.

But I don't like it from a long-term lens because I've been through this before, that when you're the incumbent or the largest player as Xero is in Australia for the small and medium enterprise area, that it's the incumbents that ultimately lose.

And we saw that in the telecom space when the monopoly of Telstra disappeared.

Telstra was the one that got hit first.

So I just think there's going to be more competition.

Okay, why are you buying, Julia?

Julia, why are you buying this one?

Goodman Groups owns the warehouses and increasingly owns the data centers.

So in the past it was really looking at logistics.

It's still got a component of that, and the good news is that Goodman Group owns a lot of the land near metropolitan centers.

So when I'm ordering something, I want it the next day, and that means keeping the warehouses pretty close to where, uh, people are ordering their items from.

But the data center part is what's driving the growth.

And when you look at data centers, you'd think it'd be easy.

Why are you buying, Julia?

Once the market thinks you're at the top, that's when they'll start looking for what stocks

I love this question because you're absolutely right.

The market is forward looking.

If you think there's going to be a recession and you're waiting for a recession to position yourself, by the time the recession starts, the market's already priced in the recovery.

So you sort of need to be one step ahead.

The good thing is that, like most things in life, the market moves in cycles, the economy moves in cycles.

So yes, we are in this state where there is interest rate hikes on the horizon at the moment, but the next stage is when we do start to see a bit of a slowing and interest rate cuts start to happen.

So while you had time on your hands, did you go and buy Qantas shares as a consequence of that? We had

So how is this rising interest rate environment influencing traders in the market at the moment?

I mean, when we look at portfolio positioning, we look at four different traffic lights.

One of those is terms of growth, valuation, financial conditions.

And the last one is central banks.

And central banks are extremely important because we know that interest rates are a key part of equity valuation.

So as interest rates rise, the hurdle for investing in equities becomes much more difficult to match.

Not only that, we are seeing now bond yields getting to the stage where they are competing against equity returns.

What else do you see as having the greatest influence on the way the market is moving over the current period?

So how is this rising interest rate environment influencing traders in the market at the moment?

I mean, when we look at portfolio positioning, we look at four different traffic lights.

One of those is terms of growth, valuation, financial conditions.

And the last one is central banks.

And central banks are extremely important because we know that interest rates are a key part of equity valuation.

So as interest rates rise, the hurdle for investing in equities becomes much more difficult to match.

Not only that, we are seeing now bond yields getting to the stage where they are competing against equity returns.

What else do you see as having the greatest influence on the way the market is moving over the current period?

And bet makers, it's up 20% today, posting its strongest quarterly update to date, with revenue in the fourth quarter up almost nine percent to 22.6 million dollars let's welcome to the cob julia lee from footsie russell and julia we had that really solid move in iron all players today but unfortunately the selling in cba has meant that we've ended pretty flash

it looks like the great rotation has been uh very much in focus here in australia where we are seeing a rotation out of more late cycle banks into more early stage materials.

If we have a look at the market, I guess it moves in different cycles.

And with CBA trading almost at a record in terms of valuation at 29 times earnings, you know, that's way above its 10-year average of about seven times in terms of a the PE ratio.

So we are seeing a rotation out of, I guess, some of those late stage plays into more materials where we are seeing a recovery from China helping to boost prices.

I guess we have a look at iron ore prices very much in focus, given that we have seen iron ore prices hitting A multi-month high both on the daily and as well as on the Singapore exchanges today.

We have a look at iron ore.

Julia, what are you watching out for? What are you going to be doing, Control F, on the reports that hit the ASX?

When we talk about the markets today, what's driving it and is there anything investors need to be aware of as we approach the end of the financial year?

The good news is that we are seeing an uplift for the market today.

Of course, one of the key things that the market is watching is tariffs.

And the fact that we have seen some of those tariff pauses being extended until August has been positive news for the market.

Of course, the show is not over there.

So just watching the headlines and it does look like the US has asked for any tariff deals to be done to come to the table sooner rather than later.

So it does look like more headlines could come to the market relating to those tariffs.

What can you tell me about that?

What is your takeaway from this hike that we saw?

First of all, the interest rate decision banged in on expectations with a 25 basis point cut down to 3.85%.

And it's also interesting having a look at where the interest rate market is predicting that interest rates will be by the end of the year and that's further downwards.

at 3.2%.

I think one of the big things we were watching for were comments around the labour market, given the very strong jobs numbers that we saw this week, not only on the wages front, but also in terms of jobs growth.

So it's interesting that in its quarterly, we've seen the RBA upgrading its forecast for the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.3% to year end.

Previously, it had been forecasting 4.2%.

Were you surprised that there wasn't sort of a little bit more baked into the market, the equity market reaction, or is it just because it was so widely telegraphed that this was likely to be the case?

a

fresh record high.

So the ASX 200 hitting 85.15 points.

So that beat the record that was set on the 3rd of December, which was just a point below that.

But I think what we're really seeing is some tailwinds still coming through from the inflation numbers yesterday.

The CPI numbers meant that, you know, there's a more than 90 percent chance now that markets are pricing in that rate cut in February.

And that really stirred along some of those rate sensitive areas, consumer discretionary especially.

What do you make of Zip's numbers?

What should we be looking out for for U.S. reporting season to again that forward guidance a bit?

Yeah, I mean, U.S. reporting season really kicks off tonight with the banks reporting earnings.

So we'll be watching that very closely.

But I think the key for reporting season at the moment is that valuations are historically high.

I mean, if we have a look here in Australia, multiples are around 17 times.

And when you see valuations that stretch, what you really wanted to see is fundamentals kicking into gear and that earnings growth coming through to support that higher valuation and the outlook for higher growth.

But unfortunately, you're not seeing that with Aussie shares at the moment.

Speaking of CPI and focus tonight, what does that mean for us, particularly when you're talking about those foreign yields?

So for the rest of the week, what should investors be watching out for?

I think one of the key things for investors this year will be earnings.

We have a look at what's forecast for the Australian share market.

We're expecting to see that Australian earnings will go backwards by around about 2%.

And of course, in a couple of weeks, we'll get the earnings scorecard from ASX listed company with the half-year reporting season.

Head of that February half-year reporting season, of course, is confession season.

And this is where companies that expect to deviate more than 5% from earnings uh forecasts or market expectations need to come out and confess to the market so just keeping a close eye to see whether we see some positive or negative confessions in the lead up to that half year reporting season of course if we have a look at um what else is on the cards one of the things that investors will be watching this week will be the december jobs numbers which are out on thursday the reason why this is so important is because the jobs market in australia has been on fire We have a look at from July last year up to November, we saw more than 200,000 jobs having been added.

What should investors have in mind there?