Joseph Francis
Economic historian from Wales, Honorary Research Fellow at the University of Birmingham, known for his critique of the "China Shock" literature in Econ Journal Watch and appearances on EconTalk.
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APPEARANCES
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PODCASTS
Nov 2, 2026
Russ RobertsHOST
If we want to attribute the collapse in manufacturing in the early 2000s to China, you have to be able to hold those other things constant using statistical techniques.
Joseph FrancisGUEST
Yeah, they were trying to get the causal effect of China's transition from communism to capitalism.
Joseph FrancisGUEST
were trying to look at the effect of the Chinese miracle, if you like, China's transition, by separating out the...
Joseph FrancisGUEST
the effects of the increased supply and the great productivity growth in China from demand factors in the United States.
Joseph FrancisGUEST
So whatever might be causing an increased demand for imports in the United States.
Joseph FrancisGUEST
And with this statistical technique, they claim to have found that imports from China had this big causal effect that it caused a decrease in the manufacturing share of employment.
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