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Jon Spainhour

Jon Spainhour

Senior Dairy Market Advisor at Ever.Ag and regular GDT Review analyst on The Ever.Ag Podcast.

Oct 20, 2026

1:28
As we move to whole milk powder, whole milk
1:31
powder is one of those products that for quite a while now has been the futures have been suggesting we're going to get a rally when it's really underperformed versus expectations.
1:43
I would say whole milk powder on this one being up 4.3%.
1:48
Yes, it was a rally and it was a pretty decent one at 4.3%.
1:54
I do think their futures were looking for a little bit more than this.
1:58
They had an eight, 9% expectation on them again.
2:02
I don't think anybody's going to see it as really a disappointment, but I guess the Futures were really outpacing the actual result of this again.
5:42
is.
0:35
John, is there a specific region that you've kind of been waiting to jump into?
0:39
Well, I think the star of the show is gonna be skim milk powder once again.
0:44
Skim milk powder on this auction was up 4.3%, coming in at $1.74, and that is several auctions in a row now that skim milk has been moving higher.
0:59
In the last one, two, three, four, five, six auctions, skim milk powder has been up five of those auctions and now trading at $1.74 price.
1:10
So I think that's really gonna be the star of the show.
1:12
Whole milk powder futures were looking for about another 7.5% to 8% increase, and only got 1.1% of an increase.
1:21
So yeah, higher is higher, but this is probably the third auction in a row that whole milk powders have been looking for this big rally that just hasn't come about.
4:26
Are there different regions that kind of stick out in your mind of, "Hey, this is usually what happens this time of year," or maybe a little bit of slower for this time of year?
0:52
So John, welcome.
0:54
Thanks, Brian.
0:55
And I'm excited to be here.
0:56
What were your expectations or the market's expectations going into this auction and how did it play out today?
1:04
Sure.
1:05
I think if we just want to look at it through what were the expectations, I think the market was generally looking for some higher pricing in the powders, lower pricing in fats and cheese.
1:17
I'm not sure exactly what the market was expecting, but when we look at what we actually got from a result, skim milk powder came in negative 0.2% at an average price of about $1.67. That'll be about the same price for both Europe and New Zealand.
1:35
I think their futures were looking for about a 2% to 3% increase here.
5:21
If we move to the purchases by region, John, there seems to be a pretty good standout in there today.
5:28
Yeah, this one, I was looking at it and was like, it is very difficult to catch the rhythm of the GDT market participants.
5:37
If we really dig into here, we will see that the Middle East, who has been a pretty decent buyer on the GDT over the course of the last few months, actually was 21% lower on an event over event performance, 3% higher than last year.
5:56
When we get to Southeast Asia, they have been a standout buyer consistently this whole summer.
6:03
They were down 11% event over event and down 9% year over year.
6:09
However, when we get to China, who has been extremely lackluster this whole time, They were up 21% event over event and up 50% year over year.
6:20
So it has really been a confusing and a back and forth.
8:09
John, is there anything else that stood out to you for this GDT specifically today?

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