How do you can numerically can you say how bad it is and what are the ripple effects for the rest of the industry?

Sure.

I mean, I think when we look at this, the model years of 26, 27 and 28 are the lowest vehicle redesign rates in history.

Right.

That includes 07, 08, 09, 2010.

So those are years around the GFC and those were pretty bleak years.

There were a lot of bankruptcies.

John, I'm guessing with some of the results of your car war story, we'd love to hear your thoughts on Akio Toyota being inducted tonight.

Will investors be excited about a company that is essentially, has mastered the U.S. market and makes vehicles for the U.S. market, but isn't necessarily in the global conversation? Would investors want a business like that?

I've been involved in the industry for almost 30 years.

And a very significant rule that's existed for decades is the only place that automakers really make significant amounts of money is in the North American truck business and global luxury.

So when you look at what's going on with the Chinese manufacturers, It's... may be making sort of the global mass market that much tougher and potentially worse to be invested in, but it is not a place where you've ever really made any money.

And over time, you've probably lost a tremendous amount of money.

So I think that what's going on right now is everybody needs to be even more diligent about where they're making money, which they've not had the greatest discipline historically, but it's mission critical that they do it now and recognize that the D3 are North American truck businesses that... potentially have an opportunity.

The D3, the big three Detroit GM Ford and Stellantis.

As an investor, how do you think they should think about U.S. automakers versus global ones? What's the right way to go about that?

What do the numbers say to you is doable for this company?

So I think when we look at volumes, which I still think are pretty important for the company, they're probably gonna be down at about another one to 2% this year, and growth will only be reestablished with new products.

And I think this is really a key part of the story.

And we upgraded the stock to a buy in April of last year, downgraded in January of this year, largely because we thought a lot of the hype around the new product was in the stock.

But I think the news last night, there was one real sort of negative nugget, at least from my perspective, is that the new low-cost product is going to come out by the middle of this year, but the reality is it's going to be likely more a stripped-down version of the Model Y and Model 3, which could really put those models at risk, and it's really not what we thought was happening.

And Elon also talked a lot about not needing to have a lot of new product and sort of an analogy for Nokia phones versus the iPhone.

And the iPhone was something that's had a pretty static form factor over time.

And how much is priced into Tesla shares currently? What about the competition with Waymo?

Of the other three, how are they preparing for Thursday? What do they do?

Well, I mean, I think we've got the answers for the moment for Thursday.

We don't necessarily have the answers for Friday or the following week yet.

So the volatility in sort of what's going to happen here or the uncertainty... is pretty extreme.

And I think when you look at this, you're making a product and plant decision about three to four years out.

And then you're going to live with that for about seven years out from that as the product is launched in the market and produced.

So you have a 10 plus year window of committing capital.

Who's best positioned going into Wednesday?

Is that why shares of the big three, I still call them that even though it's still Antus, is that why you think they're down today or how do you unpack this?

Well, Kelly, thanks for having me.

We refer to them as the Detroit three now, not necessarily the big three, given their size.

So I concur with that.

You know, I think, you know, our title of our note today was the chicken tax 2.0 goes whole hog.

So basically there is a precedent for this kind of tariff, a 25 percent tariff on body on frame trucks in the United States that has really benefited the D3 on their large trucks.

So I think when Trump looks at this and other folks and sort of the trade advisers, They think that if you put a 25% tariff on all vehicles, we can bring a lot of manufacturing back here to the United States.

Is there any way for you to kind of tell us how you'd be thinking about the boost that they might get and what that would look like?

It sounds like almost a buy call, but it's but it's not.

Well, we're positively predisposed to the company and the potential value it will create over time.

But remember, we upgraded this stock when it was about $170, and that was less than a year ago.

So it's an incredibly volatile stock.

So I think as we work through the course of this year, there's some execution risk that has really not been taken into account in the stock at this point.

So there's a couple of things.

First, they need to launch a low-cost model, and then another model in the second half of the year, or it's three in the Y derivatives.

So this to you is about execution risk on those major initiatives that they need to deliver?

Are you a big believer

that this country is going to be filled with cybercaps? So I think autonomy is something that's far more important than people are realizing.

There's the simple side of this, which is the robo taxi fleets that I think the cyber cab will probably play an important role in, but to be a selfish New York centric New Yorker, which I've been for my entire life, you know, we've done a lot of analysis on New York City and there's a little over 13,000 yellow cabs here in New York City.

they drive about a billion miles a year, right? So if you think that you can get your cost per mile lower than them or a human driver, that's less than a buck a mile.

I think you and I would be happy to pay two bucks a mile in New York.

Yeah, I know.

I mean, you know, the cost of moving around New York City is incredibly high and you're going very slow.

So if Tesla's coming out with a robo fleet what does that mean to an uber what does it mean to a lyft but what does it mean to general motors and a ford this is it strikes me as big a big structural change coming to how we live our lives