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John Blackledge

John Blackledge

Jul 17, 2026

13:22
So you did trim the target, but you think this morning's action might be a bit of an overreaction?
13:27
I do.
13:27
I mean, it was definitely mixed, but down over 11% pre-market.
13:32
When sentiment was weak going in, stock down 40% over the past 12 months pre-open.
13:38
It feels a little overdone.
13:41
Just to unpack things a little bit, the results were fine for 2Q.
13:45
Revenue in line, earnings were a little bit better.
15:46
I just wonder if basically disruption risk is getting into this valuation as well, or if that's part of your conversations there, if AI kind of privileges YouTube relative to Netflix or anything else.
3:50
Can they, or will they or any of the other players have to pull back their f- their CapEx guides, not because they don't wanna do more, but because they're not sure they can bring all that supply online?
3:59
Right.
3:59
Right.
4:00
Yeah, the, the notion that there's a finite amount of supplies to fulfill these, uh, CapEx spend as everyone is, you know, building out, uh, these massive inf- infrastructures.
4:09
I, I think it goes back to...
4:11
And, and that's why I actually don't think they're gonna raise, uh, you know, at least at this quarter.
4:15
And, and if they do raise as we get through the year, I don't think it'll be, um, of, of big size because of what you mentioned.
5:43
... or, or whatever metric you choose?
2:46
So John, What is the difference between a company that announces huge, huge spending plans and the stock rises and one that announces huge, huge spending plans and the stock falls?
3:00
Yeah, Julia, yeah.
3:02
The gap there is expectations.
3:04
And so, like you referenced, at the midpoint of their CapEx guide, $180 billion double last year, we had been forecasting $125 billion sell-side consensus was 115 billion.
3:19
And I felt like just in our investor conversations leading into earnings, investors were around 130 billion.
3:25
And so it's actually, it's a pretty big gap.
3:28
And so I think investors today are digesting one, this guide on CapEx, But also with it, what you just led with, this cloud revenue acceleration was massive.
4:21
So it sounds like you think that maybe the sell-off is a bit of an opportunity for investors to step in or that it's sort of misguided?

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