And how do we deal with, well, this is an even bigger question, and I'm not suggesting either of you fine gentlemen have an answer, but do you have any sense at all about how to get at that trust issue?

Yeah, I think if we take a look at how we got here, the fact that trust is at a historic low level for people and elected officials, for government, for corporations, for the media, for the Supreme Court and the military, where those used to be big trusts.

I think you do have to start with trust, right? And there's a lot of things eroding that social media, without a doubt, that narrative.

And again, people struggle over the last six or 10 years economically.

But the fact is, is that if whether you're Democrat or Republican or they come together and they actually do real things for people, then you start building that trust.

I'll give you a great example.

We know what the pain points are for the cost of living.

John?

mean,

James Tallarico in Texas has almost single handedly bankrupt the Republican Party.

It's now over a half a billion dollar race.

And the fact is, is that no amount of money is going to help a Ken Paxton look better to voters.

right? One in five voters in our bipartisan AARP poll that I do with Tony Fabrizio, Trump's pollster, you know, one in five Republicans give this guy an unfavorable rating.

And the libertarian there is probably going to really help James Tallarico.

And so races like that, I don't think it's going to help.

It's nuts,

But broad brush, what would you say the picture is at the moment?

Yeah, I think the, it, listen, to take a look at the broad political landscape right before the midterms, um, you know, I'll look at our bipartisan Wall Street Journal poll.

Um, I founded that, uh, with Trump's pollster in 2021.

Um, we do it with Adam Geller, who's now Trump's PAC pollster.

Um, and so this is, this is a bipartisan poll, and this is kind of what it shows.

It shows that, you know, President Trump goes into the midterm with the worst job rating of any president in modern history, right? He's 61% negative job rating.

And so just to put that in context is that Joe Biden's job rating was better than Trump's in October of 2022.

It's being called the red undertow, isn't it, in the United States, that it is, uh, Donald Trump who's dragging down his Republican candidates with his unpopularity.

Both

chambers.

Let's set the table, right? What's the political environment? Because almost everyone here has been through dozens of election cycles.

I mean, 1994, when Democrats lost the House for the first time since the 50s.

It's kind of feeling a little like that.

And so we just got out of the field with the Wall Street Journal poll.

And so we do it in a bipartisan manner.

with a Republican pollster who

You know, and David Plouffe, you make

a great point.

Like, You know, both President Trump and J.D. Vance went and campaigned in North Carolina last week.

They both have job negative job raises of 55 plus.

And so one is either because he's going to do what he wants to do and he's a narcissist or he's doing it to try to, you know, gin up Republican votes.

In our AARP polls, which we do with Tony Fabrizio, we came out with North Carolina Today.

But when we do that, we see that the motivation level, 1 through 10, right? We always look at the 10s.

And I also think if the Democrats fall one or two short, you know, if it's not a four-point margin, but a one or two, because of the Murkowskis and the Rand Pauls and the Adam Hamilton, should he win, there's still going to be a tremendous increase in Democratic political power in D.C., even if they're one or two short.

That's what's driving this, right?

Well, I think there's two things.

Absolutely correct.

Um, what's stunning about independents, again, in many states is that Trump's disapproval, minus 38 with independents.

The Democratic Party has terrible imaging.

In this state, it's underwater by 14 points.

But the other thing is the Republican Party's image has collapsed from January, right? It's, it's minus seven here, not as bad as Democrats.

Are we gonna get a surprise? What do you think?

That's what's driving this, right?

Well, I think there's two things.

Absolutely correct.

Um, what's stunning about independents, again, in many states is that Trump's disapproval, minus 38 with independents.

The Democratic Party has terrible imaging.

In this state, it's underwater by 14 points.

But the other thing is the Republican Party's image has collapsed from January, right? It's, it's minus seven here, not as bad as Democrats.

Are we gonna get a surprise? What do you think?

Previous administrations get some, and yes, uh, the current administration also gets some.

Within premiums going up, it, uh, one of the things that really stuck with me was the woman who said she couldn't afford the $500 that the cardiologist was going to cost.

Well, in our most recent May poll, we asked this very question about whether you could actually afford a $500 surprise bill.

That could be healthcare.

It could be tires.

It could be a water heater.

And 34% of Americans say they could not come up with $500 That kind of tells you the financial anxiety that people are dealing with right now.

And that, I think, really does back up John's point, that Senator Ossoff, in the meantime, is the beneficiary, because he has a really easy message to put out there in terms of what he's fighting for.

Well, like, I was trying to untangle what you just said, but go ahead.

Well, uh, well, because listen, there, there actually is some good news in here for Trump, um, and the Democrats just think that, you know, it's all shit for Trump.

Um, and there's some real warning signs in it, um, for Trump, and I think that the Republicans, you know, are, are putting on a good face, uh, uh, in terms of D.C. And I think that there's three things, AAW, action, anxious, wait and see, um, and sometimes we have to remember that we're only, whatever, 80 days into this presidency.

What we see is, like, people do like the action.

Like, I mean, he is out there doing things, the strength of it.

And I heard in a focus group, the lights are on in the White House, right? And he benefits by the comparison of Biden where people didn't think anything was going on and the president wasn't in control, et cetera.

But they're anxious, right? They're really anxious.

Now you've created a drama and people want to know how it's gonna turn out.