Is that affecting, uh, uh, your thesis here? Do you actually think we could reach a point where we see regulation? And if we do, who does that affect most?

Well, it, it sh- you know, regulatory capture and regulating within industries like this generally tends to help the big players in it.

Uh, Rahm Emanuel, who's, you know, announcing his presidential campaign I'm sure sometime soon, that's just speculation, heard an interview with him on one of the, um, financial networks the other day saying, "Well, none of these companies want their, uh, sector regulated." Well, that's not exactly true.

Some of the big players do want their, um, want their sector regulated because they know they're the ones with the flexibility and the leverage to get around those regulations, and upstarts who compete can't.

So I don't love to see that, but I think it is actually a good thing for the big players in the space, and we've seen some stocks react to that.

Uh, like if you listen to the, to the people on AI, one of two things is 100% certain.

Either in three years, three to five years, we're not gonna be able to work, we're gonna be able to sit around all day and watch SportsCenter or paint the next great Pa- Picasso, or AI's going to kill us all.

What matters most for investors as we look at, uh, let's say the next 12 months here? Is it whether we see another Fed hike? Is it whether the AI trade continues to be as strong as it's been? Or is it whether we finally start to see some broader, uh, participation from the rest of the market?

This is my view.

Okay, if you give me, I'm not giving, I'm going to go back on this.

If you can't agree with me, That part of the reason that bonds are falling is that the market is starting to realize that conflicts are expensive.

Our life is expensive even without the conflict.

And you throw another $200 billion on that, that's a lot of bonds to be sold.

The smaller, the last little part of it is that, yes, diesel and crude is causing some inflation in the short term.

It might not be great to hold bonds.

I mean, it's really, everybody wants it to go south, but it's gone north.

This is my view.

Okay, if you give me, I'm not giving, I'm going to go back on this.

If you can't agree with me, That part of the reason that bonds are falling is that the market is starting to realize that conflicts are expensive.

Our life is expensive even without the conflict.

And you throw another $200 billion on that, that's a lot of bonds to be sold.

The smaller, the last little part of it is that, yes, diesel and crude is causing some inflation in the short term.

It might not be great to hold bonds.

I mean, it's really, everybody wants it to go south, but it's gone north.

This is my view.

Okay, if you give me, I'm not giving, I'm going to go back on this.

If you can't agree with me, That part of the reason that bonds are falling is that the market is starting to realize that conflicts are expensive.

Our life is expensive even without the conflict.

And you throw another $200 billion on that, that's a lot of bonds to be sold.

The smaller, the last little part of it is that, yes, diesel and crude is causing some inflation in the short term.

It might not be great to hold bonds.

I mean, it's really, everybody wants it to go south, but it's gone north.

This is my view.

Okay, if you give me, I'm not giving, I'm going to go back on this.

If you can't agree with me, That part of the reason that bonds are falling is that the market is starting to realize that conflicts are expensive.

Our life is expensive even without the conflict.

And you throw another $200 billion on that, that's a lot of bonds to be sold.

The smaller, the last little part of it is that, yes, diesel and crude is causing some inflation in the short term.

It might not be great to hold bonds.

I mean, it's really, everybody wants it to go south, but it's gone north.

Tell me I should sell everything I own.

No, you shouldn't sell everything you own.

But there's some things that you said that I want to actually build upon.

You talked about the Broadcom earnings, and I'll talk about the Nvidia earnings as well.

Inarguably, those two sets of earnings were blockbuster.

This is a story that's not going away.

If anything, the story, the underlying fundamental story is probably even gaining some steam.

This is not about money

What would have to happen in the jobs report, Jim, for the labor market to get back on the radar in the way that inflation has been sort of the top line story?

So the thing that they worry about the most is wage-driven inflation.

And a number that comes in Friday that's hot will throw everything off.

And then the Fed will probably have to hike on the September 16th meeting, barring any weird, weird fall off in CPI on the 11th.

I think the stock market won't like that a lot.

It is one thing for the stock market to look at oil-driven inflation and say, OK, it's still relatively contained.

And the core in the CPI was, I think, 2.5 last month.

Is that distorting things for us, distorting any of the market signals?

come back so you know between those two it's very very hard for the fed i think to read what they should do next so that you know

and i had one more thing because i think there's a third thing and i don't think it's hugely pronounced but i think it belongs in the equation there's two different facets to the ai thing there's the one side perhaps it really is replacing white collar jobs But more importantly, perhaps it's convinced many companies that it is going to replace white collar jobs that slowed their hiring down.

So I think that belongs in the equation, too.

But I will say something that I think the Fed was probably elated to see that poor jobs number on Friday the 7th, because I think they don't want to get bullied in to this rate.

And I think Part of the where I can rates where I can rates is because they don't want to be viewed as lapdogs for Donald Trump.

That's fine.

It's a normal guy psychology thing.

Is March actually a hard money guy?

That's what I know.

Can I take away the word very? Because, again, by the way, I love being on with Stephanie.

I haven't talked to you in years, Stephanie.

I'm an enormous fan, so thank you for that.

Thank you.

Secondly, the word very I take away.

You said that the stock market is a leading indicator of economic health, and I think historically that is true.

Is there anything to that?

That's what I know.

Can I take away the word very? Because, again, by the way, I love being on with Stephanie.

I haven't talked to you in years, Stephanie.

I'm an enormous fan, so thank you for that.

Thank you.

Secondly, the word very I take away.

You said that the stock market is a leading indicator of economic health, and I think historically that is true.

Is there anything to that? You know, there

That's what I know.

Can I take away the word very? Because, again, by the way, I love being on with Stephanie.

I haven't talked to you in years, Stephanie.

I'm an enormous fan, so thank you for that.

Thank you.

Secondly, the word very I take away.

You said that the stock market is a leading indicator of economic health, and I think historically that is true.

A

march 22

march 2022 so again we the world believed that there was a possibility that we were weaponizing our status as the uh the steward of the world's reserve currency so a lot of countries started diversifying their reserves boom so gold gets a tail when gold goes parabolic up into january of 2026 that move was unbelievable i got out of 30 of my gold and silver at the time despite the fact that I'm still a bull up to my eyeballs.

So then we crack, and then we bounce around that 4,000 level for the last month.

Why? Well, a lot of those countries that were stockpiling gold, They were doing it for this geopolitical problem that happened.

Oil went through the roof, so perhaps they were selling gold to buy oil.

Perhaps they were selling gold to support their own currencies when the dollar was getting so strong because rates are high and money flocked to the dollar.

So then what happened in the last couple of days, let's call it a week, I think this is absolutely fascinating.

The question is, was that the right decision, though?

Jim, welcome back.

Thank you, Michael.

Thank you for having me.

That was long, and there was a lot of interesting things in there.

Because you mentioned the bond market.

Can I adjust that for a second? Go, baby.

go.

buy another house or take another vacation or buy another car all i have to i just keep borrowing money and i want to do the same thing next year and i get to borrow more money and i borrow more money and then i have to pay back the interest on the money and i'm going to borrow money to pay back the interest on the money is that what we're doing

So I was wondering if you could walk us through how you distinguish between a strategy that's temporarily underperforming versus one that's no longer profitable.

So the, the answer to that question, 'cause that's a really interesting question and thanks for it, is that, and what I said, just to put some color on what h- and what he said as well, is that you can have a technical strategy.

Our technical strategy currently at unfilteredinvestor.com is there's about five different parameters to it, and I'll just give you loosely what it is.

It's the eight and the 21 exponential moving averages are important, the 50-day or period exponential moving averages.

And then we don't use, um, Fibonacci sequences.

We use, um, every 12 and a half.

It's just a different derivation to Fibonacci, and we use double tops and double bottoms, and we trade off those.

What helps bridge the gap between analyzing markets and developing real trading instincts?

Uh, so Uriel, what are you doing? What's, what's happening here? I don't even know what's going on in the market.

So there's, there's two main themes.

And one you mentioned is oil.

And the oil thing is not that huge a deal.

Just to put in perspective in May, oil averaged $102 a barrel.

And, June, when it came down, we just saw the CPI and PPI numbers that reflected June, and oil was about $84 a barrel.

So right now, it's not a huge deal.

But right now, the market looks so Okay.

Uh, so Uriel, what are you doing? What's, what's happening here? I don't even know what's going on in the market.

So there's, there's two main themes.

And one you mentioned is oil.

And the oil thing is not that huge a deal.

Just to put in perspective in May, oil averaged $102 a barrel.

And, June, when it came down, we just saw the CPI and PPI numbers that reflected June, and oil was about $84 a barrel.

So right now, it's not a huge deal.

But right now, the market looks okay.

Jim, what's going on here?

So the thing that's interesting about it, and I've written a lot about this too, I believe that J.B. Pritzker's tact has way more intent than people think.

I think that he believes that the federal government will continually bail out states that do stupid things.

And this is the part that's really just so frustrating and confounding.

He's probably right.

I hate the fact, I think that nobody would be lending Illinois money right now if there wasn't a federal implicit guarantee to those burns.

This is why we were supposed to have 50 states.

Yeah.

So what do you make of this? Talk to me about this, both of you.

There's a couple different elements to it, and most of them are positive, like you've said it out, is that it is capturing the imagination.

But it's not just necessarily the spaces IPO.

There is two other IPOs that are going to be hyped, not equally by any stretch, but relatively close.

So when I say, have you said, have you ever seen anything like this before? The answer is no, I haven't.

But there's some things that kind of rhymed with it back in 2001.

I know you're just going to drive, that's going to drive you crazy.

I mean, are you worried about interest rates? A

So what do you make of this? Talk to me about this, both of

you.

There's a couple different elements to it, and most of them are positive, like you've said it out, is that it is capturing the imagination.

But it's not just necessarily the spaces IPO.

There is two other IPOs that are going to be hyped, not equally by any stretch, but relatively close.

So when I see, you said, have you ever seen anything like this before? The answer is no, I haven't.

But there's some things that kind of rhymed with it back in 2001.

I mean, are you worried about interest rates? A

So what do you make of this? Talk to me about this, both of you.

There's a couple different elements to it, and most of them are positive, like you've said it out, is that it is capturing the imagination's But it's not just necessarily the SpaceX IPO.

There is two other IPOs that are going to be hyped, not equally by any stretch, but relatively close.

So when I say, have you said, have you ever seen anything like this before? The answer is no, I haven't.

But there's some things that kind of rhymed with it back in 2001.

I know you're just going to drive, that's going to drive you crazy.

And I said that and I apologize.

I mean, are you worried about interest rates? A

Why is the Illinois economy so sluggish at this point? Can you pinpoint it to more than just government regulation? Yeah.

Well, government regulations, part of it, are just an absolutely ridiculous tax environment here.

It's one of the least friendly places to do business in Illinois.

It would be amazing to me if we had job growth.

We are talking about a federal economy that has to be a nationwide economy.

that has to be hitting on all cylinders and be so gangbusters to raise up a state like Illinois.

Illinois is doing everything wrong.

I mean, really, is that a prevailing thought or is that a thought at all in your neighborhood, in the people that you talk to, that they think that seriously the federal government would come in and bail out this failed state? I mean, people would take up arms, I

So what has changed from your perspective? [laughs]

Well, it's confusing, but you say we priced in peace, but we don't have peace, and that's an interesting way to phrase it.

Over these last three months, the only thing that I look to to interpret the news out of the Middle East is the price of oil.

That's all we have, because everything contradicts itself within a half hour usually.

So the price of oil being around 90, uh, $90 a barrel, I think that's the market telling us that they are 80% sure that this conflict is nearing its end.

I think if it is, it gets to an end and we believe it's a durable end, I think it'll go down to 80.

I don't think it's gonna go back down to 60, 'cause there's still a risk premium.

Are we now, because of AI investment and AI CapEx, in a, uh, are we challenging that old assumption, I mean, one of the core assumptions in macroeconomics now?

But anyway, what's happening here? Why is this going on all of a sudden?

I love when we start on something we agree with.

The Fed tightening would be idiotic.

The Fed tightening for a supply shock caused inflation will do absolutely nothing.

It would be a silly thing to do.

Now, the movement we've seen in long-run bonds I think there's some troubling aspect to it.

And I know it was a global sell-off, but it was led by us.

How are the restaurants doing, Mr. Urio?

Hmm

...

so the, it, it's no surprise the Iranians wanna go back to selling the, the, the Chinese oil, but not letting any other oil get, get to the Strait to go any- anywhere else.

Don't, don't, don't let Saudi oil, don't let Qatar oil, don't let Kuwaiti oil get through.

Just let Iranian oil get through.

The Chinese are gonna agree to that.

... all of a sudden?

Yurio.

So I can't wait to hear your take on how we got here.

So there's something that I don't think people are talking about quite enough, and that's let's rewind the tape two weeks and the situation we were in then.

Crude oil prices were high, and that was bad.

But the worst part of it is that we believed that the labor market was totally deteriorating, which brought up the word stagflation.

Now, if it's stagflation, the Fed is painted into a corner.

They can't ease to handle the labor market because of the inflation from crude, and they can't hike for crude because of the labor market.

Now, so then let's look at the April 3rd unemployment numbers that came out.

Do we have to be higher for longer for the Fed for a bit to see how much inflation is actually going to tick upwards? What do you project for the year?