Why do you think people are so poor at predicting when they leave the workforce?

This is a challenging one.

We also did a natural experiment with the data.

So what we did is we turned the clock back five years and got the data five years ago, asked people, when do you think you're going to retire? And then we cohort matched them over the next five years and measured how many of them did retire.

And the interesting finding was that... about two to one for every person who thought they were going to retire in the next five years almost two people did which says that there's actually a lot of unplanned retirements in there which is people that just don't have a plan and then something happens life work whatever and they have to go so there's a large number of those there but the age of 60 seemed to be the point when it got accurate so if you're under 60 things were very unsure but once you reach the age of 60 effectively what people's retirement guesses became really accurate again.

It was nearly one-to-one.

What we think is happening there is there's a bit of a psychological effect going on here at one level.

What's driving the change for people as they consider their retirement?

... do you agree with that characterization?

Oh, 100% it's anti-aspirational.

Like, i- if I'm a young Australian and I'm looking to get ahead, uh, you know, then this budget-... guarantees I don't get ahead.

Now, i- it's actually the direct opposite to what the government was saying in terms of, you know, trying to, um, be more equitable, uh, for younger people.

It, it's the opposite.

I, I'm in a fortunate position.

I've had a, you know, a good...

Mm-hmm