i agree with that so let me before we get to football the world series starts today they are the two best teams in their respective leagues they it is the correct world series it doesn't mean anybody's going to watch it but it's the correct world series milwaukee is at home for four games and if we need them um you know tampa bay is at home for three uh who's the world series favorite and who do you like in that

I mean, the Brewers are the favorites slightly.

I think they're minus like 160, which means like you would need to bet $160 to win 100 on Milwaukee.

And yeah, I mean, I think they probably should be the favorites.

I don't think I would bet them at that number.

I think I would probably bet Tampa just because I do think it's more of a toss-up than people think, obviously.

Um, Mizrowski's amazing and the ability to throw him out there is, is, you know, is, is the probably one trump card that's out there.

Okay.

What's the turnaround like? You're, this is a Drake-made turnaround, Jeff.

[laughs] Uh, yeah.

No, I mean, like I said, it's, it's worrying, but, you know, over, over time, you just hope that, uh, you win more than you lose, and you can't get over- you can't overreact to any kind of short-term numbers.

You know, like the, all the touts out there, they always, like, talk about their record over the last 10 games or five games or whatnot.

You just hope that over the course of the season that you do well.

And I, I think, like, once, you know, we've gotten to know some of these teams and what they're doing, and, and definitely college has been, has been better than the pros.

It always seems like it's easier to predict college than the pros.

They beat Seattle in Seattle, and I wonder, is there anything o- on letdowns? You know, after some team has a really big win, do you bet against them? Do you say that they'll continue to ride it out like New England did when they beat Buffalo and then won again? Or do you say, "No, no, no, get off them"?

I don't.

Um, yeah, I mean, I don't, I don't think we quite know, and then I think that, you know, a quarter in the season, you have to balance what you believed going into the season with, um, what you've seen so far.

I think the, the challenge right now is being able to, you know, have the, the art of mixing up those two to figure out which are...

You know, obviously, coming into the season, everyone thought, uh, the Rams, thought Seattle.

Um, the Rams have had some injuries.

Uh, Seattle's performed pretty well.

The Rams had, you know, the, the, the gaff early on, um, with the travel.

What does that say to you?

Mm-hmm.

You know, we saw Mark Mariota, I think we said it was only a few points, and we saw, uh, even, even, you know, Keenum, who hadn't played in a while, and, uh, with, with six points.

And, uh, you know, I, I, I think that the people tend to overreact to these things, and last week the results would make you indicate...

You know, obviously it's a small sample size.

Um, but I do think that we're probably overreacting to quarterback changes in many of these cases, especially in cases where we have really good systems.

Like Ben Johnson has a really good system in place.

We know Mariota has, has played b- very well before as a backup.

Now that we're into the second series, what is the betting going on? Are people betting on the overall to win the World Series? Are they betting on the Dodgers, or are they, or, or is everybody sort of running to a hot team like San Diego?

Okay.

I'm going to take the Jameis Winston Giants minus the two over the Titans.

Relatively short line.

You know, Giants, again, that difference, the market is telling you that difference is not big as you would think.

And, you know, I think the Giants have a better team all around.

And, you know, you're still getting Cam Ward, who has not shown us too much yet.

So I will take the Giants there.

And who's on Bet the Process this week?

[laughs]

But besides that, I, I learned, uh...

I mean, I think, you know, the, early in the NFL there are, uh, different ways to look at games.

Obviously, uh, there's lots that changes, and I think the biggest thing I would say is that you have to, um, adapt to, to what you learn quickly and figure out, like, is this signal or noise? I mean, I think one of the interesting things last week is that Rams-Niners game, and everyone kind of looking at it, uh, before in terms of understanding, like, what the best way to manage that game was from a-

[laughs]

Uh, I do wanna give him his flowers.

I did, I was out of it la- yeah, last week and forgot to mention, you know, obviously, like, very thankful for the gift he gave.

Um, you know, but I, I do wanna correct some things.

For a, somebody who likes to gamble, is this the most frightening week, or somehow can you convince me, no, no, no, no, this is the week where you make all the money?

Uh, I, I don't think this is the week that you make all the money, because I think there's a lot of uncertainty.

Um, you know, people, especially on the college level, and, and one of the things that Rufus and I have been talking about is, like, getting models that are much more player-based, and at the college level, trying to understand impact of things like coaching, um, the transfer portal, the talent, all that kind of stuff.

Like, Rufus has talked about how he's done a lot of work this year on understanding the impact of coaching and of separating out the different pieces of coaching.

This is at the college level we're talking about, where, you know, now the rules are such that, you know, you're bringing in all these, all these guys that are-

Yeah

... uh, big thing Cignetti does is he really gets these guys to improve while he's there.

So it's, it's, uh, it's, it's, um, it's in, been an interesting study.

Member, guest, all the time.

Yeah.

You, you, you sort of have, uh, rules where depending on how you do in the Calcutta, you win a percentage of the overall pot.

And, you know, like, in the Calcuttas that we do for the majors, the golfer that wins the whole thing gets about 19% of the overall pot, and there's also all sorts of bets, like who has the best score on day one, who has the worst score on day one.

That makes a, you know, a percentage of the pot, 1%.

And so, uh, you auction off every golfer.

In the case of the majors, we do every golfer the top 50, and then we do the rest in lots of about five.

Sure

Yeah.

It's, it's one game.

There's no spread, all that kind of stuff.

So, uh, yeah, I mean, I, I think doing brackets is fun.

Um, it's definitely not something that I would do to try to make money.

We, we actually do these things called Calcutas, which are much more, um, analytical.

The...

They are the number one team in the country now." That's how I felt.

Right.

And then a kind of an interesting one is they have a prop bet, how many players, uh, attempt to pass, and it, it's always two and a half, where if you bet the over, you actually have to, like...

You, you get paid to bet the over, meaning, like, you get two to one or, or whatnot odds.

We think this is priced poorly because n- neither of these teams really have someone that you would naturally think about.

Cooper Kupp is the only person on that team that's as a position player, and the Patriots really have had no one.

They have...

The only way I think this doesn't, this, this goes over is if there's a fake punt of some sort, and, like, the, there's a pass with that, so-

Okay.

Miami covered, but did you think that they should have gotten less points because they were playing at their home stadium?

Well, yeah, I mean, the question becomes...

And we talked about this, about the process, including you, one of the challenges in modeling this game and figuring out what the right line should have been is, how much home field, uh, advantage do you assign to Miami? Um, you know, like, again, we've talked about there not being, like, a real understanding of where home field advantage comes from.

Does it come from the noise? Does it come from the familiarity? What does, what does it come from? Does it come from the refs reacting to the home crowd? So, um, I, I, I think there was an interesting question, was how much home field should have been assigned to Miami in this game, and was that line of, of eight and a half, that, that actually ended up kind of going down before game time, was that the right line? Um, I, I think a lot of, a lot of people thought the value was in Miami in that game, and, and, yes, they did cover.

He's out

...

Not, not because of a running situation, but he is their pass protector.

He is their pass running back.

What else?

I'm gonna take the Texans.

I'm a Patriots fan, so this, this pains me to say, but I, I think that defense and their, their ability to get pressure with, you know, three or four guys is gonna be, uh, a lot for Drake May in this, in this spot.

Obviously, May has been incredible all year.

Um, I also think that the, the Texans have, you know, an ability to have a, a higher ceiling if C.J. Stroud plays well, and he, he...

You know, despite the fumbles and despite some of the brain-dead things he did in that game, he played pretty well.

Um, and they had a running game that we haven't seen, so I, I think that, you know, as a, as an underdog here, um, getting three, it might be three and a half points, but when it's all said and done, I'm gonna take the Texans.

You're gonna pick the college game, aren't you?

You just showed up with a first tee? [laughing]

Yeah.

I was like, "Uh, I'm, I'm here," you know? And they're like, "Our fourth's late?" "No." Uh, we played at Makena.

Uh, one of my buddies, a guy named Shane Sigsbee, he's a, you know, plus five handicap.

He's a member.

He's the guy I played with at Summit, and, and he happened to be out at Makena, which is the Discovery Land property out there.

Uh, he said, "Hey, do you wanna come down and, and play, uh, and, you know, bring the family down?" 'Cause we were on the other side of the island.

Mm.

Right.

Um, Alabama's plus 1800, so they are the third worst odds.

It go...

You'd have to go Ole Miss, Miami of Florida who's about plus 2000, and then Alabama's plus 1800.

I, I don't think people have a lot of faith in Alabama.

Now, it's interesting obviously because going into the season, Alabama was one of the favorites.

Um, so it- it- it is interesting to see this much movement in a situation now when there's only eight teams left, for Indiana to be in this.

Your- what are your thoughts on all of that?

Oh.

... of the company who was Bill Walsh, and so we needed a basketball person.

And, uh, you know, mind you that this company was started all on the concepts of Moneyball and analytics and statistics.

So he was with Memphis at the time, and I, I flew there, uh, to talk to him and recruit him to be part of this new company called ProTrade.

And I sat down across the desk from him.

His first words were, "Boy, I got one thing to tell you.

I hate statistics."

(laughs)

Yeah.

...

I think in leadership roles does now.

Looks for, you know, alternate approaches to things.

I think one of the things that the Red Sox organization has done quite well, um, a- and, you know, is they, they've taken an analytics approach to things like improvement, right? And, and if you think about one of, like, the funny lessons in Moneyball, the original book, is, is Billy Beane kind of, like, seemed fixated on the idea that, that, you know, players were who they were and they couldn't improve.

And I think we think one of the major areas where analytics can help is helping players get better, and you, you see this in a lot of the organizations that are successful now.

They take organizational approach to using analytics to measure people getting better.

Mm-hmm.

I don't.

...

but I'm gonna try to tell you a little bit about this.

There's one called Polymarkets, there's one called Coliseum, there's one called No Big.

And essentially what these are, these are markets where you can bet on different events.

You can bet on things like the election, you can bet on news events, whatnot.

Um, and you know, they've, they've been around for many years, but they're actually starting to get a lot of prominence now, and one of the reasons they are is because they've been getting into the sports prediction world, which might sound similar to betting to you and what is happening is they're able to roll out in states that aren't, uh, legal from a sports betting perspective, but they can do these sports prediction markets.

What else you got?

Is it, is it, is that Rufus or you on college? You've been doing great.

Uh, it's mostly Rufus.

Um, and, you know, it's, I mean, generally college is much easier to beat than the NFL.

The NFL is a very efficient market.

Um, you know, like everyone wants to bet the NFL, so every, there's a lot of great opinions.

So the lines get shaped in a way that they're pretty hard to beat.

Um, you know, it's almost like flipping a coin generally.

Oh, okay.

Okay.

Um, I have Ohio State minus 32 and a half over Rutgers.

Uh, we actually spent a lot of time on about the process of talking about Ohio State as a national champion contender, because they are by, by far the odds on favorite.

They're less than two to one to win the national championship.

But my contention is they have played nobody.

And so it's hard to know if they are really that good.

And at two to one, that is basically saying that they'd be, you know, like...

Go ahead.

But what are your thoughts on this?

Yeah, I mean, I listened to, to your, you and Jo- Jeff Passan talk about it, um, I think Wednesday, and I think what occurred to me that, um, the, you know, the statement that he made that he thinks some politician needs to take a stand and put this back in, you know, the, the genie's out of the bottle.

That that's... it's not gonna go back in the bottle.

And at the core, when you think about this incident, right, and, and all these incidents are, you know, they're similar in some ways, right? They're basically, I think, more stupidity and ignorance than anything that nefarious.

Like obviously, the people that were taking the information were pretty nefarious.

I think at the core of this one, the concept of micro-bets, betting on every pitch, it, that's not the nature of what sports betting was supposed to be, at least.

You know, like-

Right.

Yes.

And they are roughly two to one favorites.

So it's very well aligned with what the rankings are.

Um, what's interesting is, you know, you would think that...

And, and we've talked about this Indiana team on the podcast all year.

They are actually, um, almost five to one, four and a half to one, but they're the number two team.

So not only are the, you know, the rankings reflecting that they're very good and have a legitimate shot, but the people that vote with their money, i.e. the gamblers, agree.

We'll give you six.

Never.

It's a good one.

You drive out there, uh, you're- no one's- no one's really allowed to drive out there, so you have to get a ride out from- from whatever hotel, the MGM hotels, then go out there.

Um, there's a- a legendary bartender that's been there forever called Rhonda.

She makes the Rhonda-Rita.

You get a Rhonda-Rita, you ge- go out there and play, and it is, you know, it is an oasis in the middle of the desert, with trees and animals and the- the holes, every hole is perfect.

Um, it, the wea- you know, again, the- the- the conditions are perfect.

You're listening to the Tony Kornheiser Show.

Right.

... sitting there making sure it's a fair game.

And if you talk to professional...... poker players, this kind of thing, I don't think it would surprise them at all that this was happening.

I mean There, there were pod, there's some podcasts that are out there that even alluded to this years ago that, you know, there were unfair games that were happening, NBA players.

And I even think Chauncey was called out in one of them, in one of those podcasts as, as being part of one of these games.

Now, again, y- y- this, there's a lot of rumors, there's a lot of innuendo in all this, and now this has, like come to a real thing where there's, you know, investigation and indictments and whatnot.

But, you know, again like the notion of an unfair rigged private poker game, you know, where you're using celebrities to attract the people to come play.

He didn't make any money.

Yep.

And, uh, and you said, oh, I think you said something like, "Well, hopefully they're smart enough to know that." Well, they, they weren't 'cause on Friday, Scotty and Russell Henley teed off together, and Scotty teed off on the even, uh, on the even tees.

And then, um, the next day, they, they fixed it, and he teed off on the odd tees.

Um, that was just indicative of, of the US just not being nearly as prepared as the European team was.

Eduardo Molinari has a, has the, uh, has...

Uh, sorry, Francesco Molinari has his guys just, like, completely, you know, ready to go and, and really has them much more prepared, um, than the US team.

E- even something like...

What else?

Yes.

... uh, which I'm not sure if there really is.

I mean, I think there has been in the past in Europe where they've been able to set the course up in a certain way, but in this case I don't, I don't think they can 'cause the, the US and, and the Europe teams are somewhat similar in their ability to hit the ball long and whatnot.

So, um, I, I, I mean I like the US just because of the very reason that the bottom of the... you know, one, Scheffler is by far the best, you know, the best golfer out there, and then the bottom of the European team, you know, with guys like Haugard and even though Roses performed pretty well, um, Straka, those guys are not up to par with the bottom of the US team, so I think that's gonna show up a little bit in singles.

Um, so I, I, I would like the US if the odds were even.

If the odds were they are, I'd still probably take the US, but that's mostly because I want to root for the US.

That's-

I mean, one of the things that'll be interesting tomorrow in these, in these foursomes is to see whether the US is smart enough to set up their, their bombers to play... to tee off, you know, first on the odd holes because that's where the advantage is.