In that vein, you've looked at hidden services boom and how that is measured, particularly in the digital

era.

Yeah, and this has been one of my sort of pet peeves for some time.

And it was really nice to get this sort of really neatly down on paper to get together.

And I use the example a lot around if I was to buy something from Sweden, and if I was to buy a Volvo or to use the example again of a Spotify subscription, How that features in economic data is very, very different.

The Volvo is tracked at every point.

It's produced out of a factory.

How do you reconcile those two stances?

What was the picture

like? So it's been a very mixed picture.

So over the course of the last few months, we've been having essentially two scenarios, a base case where oil prices fell back quite quickly, and a more adverse scenario where oil prices stayed much more elevated.

And over the course of the last few weeks, we have seen that probability of the base case increase a little bit.

So your sort of average expected growth rate, et cetera, starts to look a little bit better.

Now, of course, we're still in this world where those two scenarios are live.

But a world where oil prices are even $80 a barrel versus $100 a barrel is going to be better news for the global economy in terms of keeping inflation lower, in terms of lifting up growth.

What's driving growth and who's faring well and which economies aren't quite up to

What was the picture

like? So it's been a very mixed picture.

So over the course of the last few months, we've been having essentially two scenarios, a base case where oil prices fell back quite quickly, and a more adverse scenario where oil prices stayed much more elevated.

And over the course of the last few weeks, we have seen that probability of the base case increase a little bit.

So your sort of average expected growth rate, et cetera, starts to look a little bit better.

Now, of course, we're still in this world where those two scenarios are live.

But a world where oil prices are even $80 a barrel versus $100 a barrel is going to be better news for the global economy in terms of keeping inflation lower, in terms of lifting up growth.

What's driving growth and who's faring well and which economies aren't quite up to

So just piece this together for us.

Yeah, it's been a year where I think as an economist, particularly a global economist, it's been really, really hard to get a handle on exactly what's happening.

And I think as a result, people in markets are having to take the data points they've got, the earnings and so forth, and act on those rather than necessarily that broader macro picture.

Because our story throughout most of this year has really been that concerning challenge in terms of working out what is actually happening in the data.

You've had so much front loading in terms of trade flows, That's heavily distorted GDP growth in some countries.

It's heavily distorting GDP growth in the second quarter.

And all of this really creates this very murky picture.

We thought we would know what the outcome was on a certain day, then there were extensions, and then we saw some of this put on hold, and of course now today we're even talking about are these actually the rates that these countries are going to end up with or is there room for negotiation? How long could that negotiation take? So what does that uncertainty now mean for the global economy as it feels as though the lack of planning has been happening in some quarters?

Are you going to be getting Newcastle tickets this year or is that where the spending's booming in the UK?

That's where the spending is booming.

I'm going to one match this season and that's all I can get my hands on.

It's so hard to get tickets for football.

It's so hard to get tickets for shows.

It's every flight you get on, every hotel you go to is full, full, full.

And that's where people are spending their money.

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