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Jake Dudek

CFO at Sunday; former COO at Scott Sports USA and VP Commercial Operations at SIGNA Sports United

Jul 30, 2026

23:09
Is that assessment something that, I guess, resonates with you as being true, or is there maybe, uh, nuances to that that could be added to it?
23:19
I think it's v- I think it's true.
23:21
I think that, um, going back to the overoptimism bias piece of it, um, I don't think that the industry is ever totally honest with itself around, like, what is the average replacement cycle, you know, for a bike? And we're talking average, like, not the N+1 character.
23:39
We know they buy a bike every year.
23:41
But there's like 10 of those people.
23:43
Like, average across the spectrum, maybe you're in it for, like, five years.
23:48
I mean, I'd love to see research on it.
24:20
Mm-hmm.
86:38
Yeah
86:38
... three to five, probably.
86:40
Margins are tough.
86:41
Very, very competitive space.
86:43
Super long lead times.
86:45
High percentage of revenue sitting in cost of goods.
86:48
Fashion-oriented demand.
87:59
Do you see it such that the fact that they have leaves many other, like, founder-led businesses and ones that haven't taken on investment needing to react in the same way because they're now their competitors?
68:58
Has anything actually changed in your view, or is the industry just kind of repeating the pattern you described?
69:05
What I mean, I guess in more detail when I say that capacity never leaves like it should, typically in an industry like you, you would have shareholders, the, the owners of the capital, like they would have a required rate of return, right? That should be commiserate with the risk that they're taking, you know, to, to partake in that business.
69:26
And there's, generally speaking, the returns, the return on invested capital calculations don't math out [laughs] relative to the risk that they, that they end up taking.
69:37
And so I think in the cycling industry, um, there's other industries as well that are, that are like it, but you certainly see it in the cycling space.
69:44
You get very, very passionate, you know, capital owners, people that wanna partake in the industry and live in the industry.
69:53
But in doing so, you wind up with a situation where it's actually pretty high barriers to exit.
69:58
People never actually exit like they should.
71:11
Mm.

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