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Jake Conley

Jake Conley

Oct 12, 2026

RachelHOST
0:24
Um, is, is the Trump show losing steam?
0:27
So the one thing that is consistent, if you've been to a lot of Trump rallies, is Trump rally-goers hate traffic.
0:32
They do leave early very consistently.
0:33
That's been happening the whole time.
0:35
Now, aside from that, we certainly see a lot of enthusiasm issues with the base.
0:39
In terms of why Upstate New York, I mean, Trump does have kind of his origin story starting to get into conservative politics in Western and Central New York.
0:48
But what was weird was, like, Syracuse is actually the city with the number one rate of childhood poverty of any city in the country of over a thou- 100,000 people.
RachelHOST
5:43
Mm.
20:21
It, from your reporting and from your experience, do you think that's likely where they'll go strategically in order to try to regain some of their ground here?
20:28
Well, you look at the moderates in this election, right? Take out the wing politics.
20:32
If you look at what moderates care about, it is those baseline things.
20:35
Can I afford my groceries? Can I buy a house? Why are we fighting a war that's cost, by some estimates, $100 billion, 40 billion by the Pentagon's numbers? Post the election, if we do see the walloping that we might see, and that, uh, might come for the Republican Party, sure, you might see some of these candidates start to say, "Look, I've got to reengage people.
20:53
How do I do that? I start saying I can put money back in your, back in your pocketbook.
20:57
You've, uh, you know, f- spent years criticizing me for making money further than my salary would suggest because of insider information because I sit on the Senate Intelligence Committee," or whatever other select committee.
21:08
But look at the energy that we've seen around the congressional stock trading ban, and look at what hasn't happened.

14 MINS LATER

35:15
Um, and he said this: "Political violence is no longer confined to the fringe, no longer clearly condemned by leaders, no longer monopolized by either the right or the left, and increasingly treated as a legitimate instrument of political pressure."
4:18
Do you think that that message, first of all, is is a fair characterization of what we're seeing? And second of all, if it likely has any purchase, so to speak, with voters?
4:30
It's interesting.
4:30
We do see spending data holding up, but increasingly, we keep talking about a K-shaped economy.
4:36
The upper part of the economy is doing really well right now.
4:40
The stock market is, by and large, on a rip.
4:43
But the lower side of the economy is really, really struggling.
4:46
That's It's a message that's going to be hard to connect.
9:16
And the difference in the tech overlords and AI and all of these concerns that are rising among voters, if that continues, what happens if the economy is only perfect for the elite? Then where do you see the November prospects?

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