Uh, and once that's resolved, I think we'll see more, uh, likely to see, uh, bigger steps in action to relocate some of that activity.

It's quite fascinating.

I first of all, I want to talk about anecdote stories because I am based in Dallas, Texas, and then, you know, everyone talk about TSMC.

As a Taiwanese, people love to talk about TSMC.

People talking about the supply chain move from the, from the Asia Pacific into the US.

I can quite honestly tell you, I am participating some trade talk in Dallas organized by Taiwanese tech supply chain companies.

So all the supply chain companies, they are coming here, Texas, to, to, to provide the support for TSMC, the ecosystem.

Longer-term outlook for the US, and h- does that change any outlook towards any particular part of real estate?

Where are we seeing those jobs going?

Well, all the jobs going, you can see particularly manufacturing hub.

I have to say what we are seeing in the Midwest market, we do see other manufac- manufacturings reshoring back to the market.

And then funny enough, Arizona, uh, does get a lot of tractions.

And also we see the Sun Belt market, Texas, we do have a supply chain is moving to Texas as well.

So therefore you can see Sun Belt market, that's why I keep saying the demographic growth and population growth is real.

But don't forget, some traditional gateway market like a San Francisco, like a New York, continue to attract the talent.

And as we wrap up, what other notable trends should investors be pa- paying attention to today?

What has surprised you most about commercial real estate so far in 2026?

You know, I have to say good afternoon, everyone.

I have to say the biggest surprise for me is giving all the noises coming from geopolitical issues and then also the AI disruption for the economy.

The commercial real estate continues to perform so well.

I can tell you that for the first half of 2026, just the US commercial real estate transaction volume was up by 25% compared to what we have seen the same period in 2025.

And also, this is the first time we are also seeing that transaction value is well above the pre-COVID level.

So from the transaction point of view, the market is definitely on the way to recover, which surprises us a lot.

Is the AI boom actually helpful? bringing more people back into the office setting?

And I

have to say, you know, personally, probably you know that I love shopping because I was coming from Asia.

Asians love shopping.

And I want to highlight here for the US, I think real estate is all about demand and supply.

And forget about the demand side for now.

The supply, I think you and I know retail has been facing some tough challenges over the, you know, during the COVID.

And no one wants to touch retail.

And I know this is something that I think President Trump talked about when he was campaigning and in terms of invoking policy, bringing some of the manufacturing back to the U.S., how are we doing from a manufacturing point of view? Are our rents are people renting, you know, in industrial spaces?

Yeah.

But I do have to say, from the macro point of view, I think I was very surprised that we have lost the productivity over the past 25 years around the global G7 economies.

So therefore, if you're looking at the global economy perspective, population growth, plateau, GDP continue to grow, the AI might come in at the right time to support the economy growth.

But when, when it translate into the real estate market, I have to say, I think people seems to be overreacting about all the, all the AI hype, to be frank.

And, uh, if you're looking at the history, 1993, when the internet was first introduced, I was in a uni student.

The people was so excited, said, "Oh, we don't need to work for six days a week.

We can, only need to work for, you know, three, four, five days a week." Spence, how many days do you work per week?

It's impossible to boil it down to one point, but- From each of your perspective, what would you like our listeners to take away from CBRE's mid-year report?

[laughs]

[laughs] So a lot of people thought the researcher can be replaced by AI, but I disagree because I think about the AI, and I was looking at the productivity on the global economies.

And, uh, surprisingly, on the mature economy, G7, including Australia, we have lost our productivities for the past 25 years.

And that was a surprise to me actually.

But when I have a deeper dive about the productivity per se, we have to say we're also losing the populations.

The population growth is not as strong as it used to be, so therefore our productivity has declined over the past 25 years.

As a result, AI does come into the market at the right time, right? So we need to have a better productivities.

Tell us your thoughts on industrial and logistics.

How are you thinking about that as it pertains to the commercial real estate market right now?

It's very interesting.

I think in the beginning of the year, we did forecast that 10-year treasury is going to be lingering around 4%.

It's going to be on the top 4% toward the end of the year.

So that is always an hour-based case.

So given the current uncertainties we are facing, Unfortunately, I think 10-year treasury is going to be lingering around above 4% for the rest of the year.

But based on our forecast, the total returns for the commercial real estate market in the US in 2026 is going to be largely driven by the rental growth.

I mean, what are you seeing as far as the trends of which sectors are you seeing the most growth opportunities in commercial real estate?

Well, Henry, I gotta tell you, and I... well, this is not the pat myself on the back moment, but on this show I've said multiple times, three years ago, that San Francisco was the most undervalued market in the US, and lo and behold, multifamily is killing it there, and the reason is there's no new supply.

Exactly.

And also, the fact is San Francisco has regained all the rental losses during COVID as of now.

So going forward, if you're small investors and you, you don't... you know, if they listened to you three years ago, they bought the asset, I'm going to think they're going to make a decent profit.

And, uh, to our surprise, I think the Mountain region also rebound around 5% rental growth, which is, uh, fascinating to see that.

And as you highlight, the Southeast Texas area, we do see some rental decline, but the level of decline has slowed, which is, again, the good sign.

When we pivot to the s- supply pictures, Q1 supply hit the lowest quarterly deliveries since 2021.

What are your final thoughts for our listeners for the first quarter of 2026?