What does the IPO landscape look like right now?

Well, it's a really interesting landscape 'cause it was obviously completely dominated by SpaceX, um, back in June, and we've obviously followed the SpaceX story very well.

They raised a historic amount of capital at eighty-five billion, um, and they traded up and traded down, and then traded back up above their IPO price.

And I think the market was really paying close attention to them, and they really sucked the oxygen out of the room, uh, for the most part, uh, for the summer.

And now we have an extremely exciting, uh, fall coming w- starting with Anthropic, um, you know, the most meteoric, uh, company we've ever seen, uh, you know crossing hundred billion of ARR, you know, uh, in, in, in, and ten X-ing in one year and potentially, uh, being valued more than SpaceX and raising more capital than SpaceX although I expect it'll be somewhat similar in the market.

And then there's a really interesting pipeline after Anthropic, but again it's another situation of do they suck the oxygen out of the room? Um, is there anything left for these other also great companies but not at the same kind of scale as Anthropic? So it's gonna be a very interesting and potentially exciting, uh, fall season for the IPO market.

You kind of mentioned this a little bit, but can you dig more into the, the, the challenges that Anthropic might face coming up?

I mean, it's a, it's a young company.

Tell us a little bit, working with the IOC day to day, how's

that? Yeah, so the IOC, in the most positive way I can say, it's an interesting beast because a lot of people, they look at the Olympic Games and they go, well, it happens every four years or every two years, winter and summer, right? But there's so much behind the scenes that people don't realize.

There's 206 national Olympic committees, which effectively means that the organization spans every end of the earth.

you've got a National Olympic Committee in Palau.

They may only have 10 athletes, but they're sending their athletes to the Olympic Games.

And there's kind of, you know, as like there's a strong culture in South Africa, in every National Olympic Committee, there's this cultural pride which comes through, which follows through to the Olympic Games.

And, you know, I've been very fortunate with...

What were the sliding doors in your life, you would say, growing up in Durban all the way through to Australia?

Catch me outside.

You, you keep texting me.

You always message me every year.

It's like, "Oh, it's so cool you went to Binghamton.

You're the new highest kid who went to Binghamton who is higher in the main event." You have no fucking chance, dude.

Um, it, but it's cute.

Like you, like y- you're like on my trajectory like three years ago where it's like, eh, you flirt with it.

And that's it

Greg, anything to add there?

Yeah, for me, it was, uh, I remember when I was doing standup comedy, I had a, uh, I, I opened for a veteran comic and he was just talking to me in the green room after the show.

And he says something to me that always stuck with me when I was doing it.

And he said, if you do comedy and the comedy you're doing, everybody likes it, then you're doing something wrong.

And that kind of stuck with me because.

He was basically saying to me exactly what Howard Stern was doing in that if if you're not trying new things and you're not taking chances and, you know, sort of going out there and seeing what happens, you're never going to reach the level of fame that Howard Stern got to.

You know, so you got to see where some of his sticks, they were funny.

So what is it?

Questions, Member Martin?

More, more a comment.

Um, th- I don't believe in, uh, land acknowledgement.

I think it's virtue signaling.

Um, I don't think it really means much of anything, and, uh, there's no reciprocal acknowledgement.

Like, what about my treaty rights? And they do nothing to acknowledge that some of the land was sold, some of the land was, was traded for services.

Uh, they just say everything's under claim.

Was that, was that the case for you?

Do the, do those numbers and see what you come up with.

My, my...

Okay, my main point, though, is, like, if you're drafting an ace in the first two rounds, you want an elite strikeout rate, and that helps with running three closers out there some weeks, right? If you're trying to spec on, on saves.

It helps with a lot of things.

I think if you're paying that type of price for an ace, and that's why I'm a little bit concerned about Skubal, 'cause the fastball VLO is down.

He's getting less swinging strikes.

The, the strikeout rate from 33, 37% down to, like, 27%.

[laughs]

in terms of a capital raise that could drive its valuation up to 800 billion or so.

Yeah.

Anthropic's one of the hottest companies we've ever seen.

Uh, unbelievable demand on our, on our platform at Rainmaker.

Obviously the company added 10 billion of ARR in one month.

Um, they're now up to about 30 billion of ARR as reported publicly.

So it's just, it's, uh ...

I don't do financial advice, just read my reporting." But the second thing is I say, "Oh, but we have reported that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all likely to go public in 2026." And with that flood into the market of three names at that scale, how does that translate to activity on the secondary market? Do people try and position themselves in anticipation of a big listing or public debut moment like that?

That's what I read.

Yeah I I think I think that's a good intuition I think clearly you know SpaceX it could be a hundred billion plus of proceeds raise which be almost double of the entire IPO market of twenty twenty five.

And we're talking potentially a trillion and a half to $2 trillion market cap.

So obviously, SpaceX would be a massive tsunami effect, I think, on the overall market.

And there's a lot of others behind it.

It's not just SpaceX.

It's some top AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic.

yeah i mean i get that at the same time you're trying to stay positive i think a lot of people are tech is still very hot the ai frenzy is still real because we see the numbers and the capex spending that's been going on and so with that i mean would you be comfortable almost saying it's pretty likely or very likely five out of five of those names go public this year

He's trying to, he's trying to put AI data centers into space, and I guess that that's a key driver of maybe the need for more money, but what are you, what are you hearing?

Well, let's start with the fact that we think Elon's a pretty smart guy.

The company has been private a long time, so I wouldn't say he's racing [chuckles] to, to go public.

Although, you know, certainly his stance on SpaceX, in particular, being a public company, has shifted based on what he had said previously.

We are in a very good market.

We're at all-time highs across the board.

There's obviously a heavy AI trade, and SpaceX, you know, has seen a large amount of, of interest in the private markets.

And then zooming out a little bit, how would you say that private market valuations typically compare to what companies achieve in their IPOs?

He was just trying out for the detective squad, so he was assigned what had been classified as just a routine missing person case.

I went in and I noticed there was no damage, no evidence of a fight, uh, no evidence of a struggle or anything that we could see.

The first thing I noticed that was totally out of order was that her purse was there.

Her purse was there.

A woman goes nowhere without her purse.

Exclusions apply, visit the website for full terms and conditions.

In police work, you try to prove your, your hunches.

You say something is wrong, okay? I knew something was not right.