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Greg Johnson

Greg Johnson

Grain originator and market analyst at Total Grain Marketing (TGM) in Champaign, Illinois, and a regular commodity markets panelist on WILL/University of Illinois Extension's Commodity Week.

Oct 15, 2026

45:11
What's the setup over there in that area? You know, how much farm storage is there, and how much comes to town in the fall?
45:18
I think, uh, farmers have built storage, uh, not in the last two or three years.
45:23
I think the cost of building storage the last couple years has been pretty prohibitive, but I think a lot of storage got built prior to that.
45:30
Uh, what we're seeing a little bit more of here in the last year or two is the temporary storage with the white vinyl bags, uh, out in the field.
45:36
We're seeing some farmers, uh, some of the larger farmers go to that, uh, type of temporary storage.
45:42
I think there's enough storage in general, but when everybody wants to go in the same week, you know, that second week of October, um, it, it's just hard to...
45:51
You know, we...
48:14
I mean, you know, we're right at five bucks now on December on futures, so we're down almost 50 cents off our high, so are you getting much business done?
2:16
Did that remain the same over the last seven days?
2:19
It did.
2:20
It did.
2:20
The bean yields continue to be two to three to four bushels better.
2:24
than last year and last year was a good year so farmers are very pleased with their bean yields lots of bean yields in the 70s occasionally in the 80s and once in a while in the 90s actually so you know that's that's very good farmers are very happy and the price of soybeans is very good too so we've got a good price and a good yield and so farmers are very happy with beans Unfortunately, we're just now starting to get into corn as farmers switch over from beans to corn, and the yields are not translating.
2:57
The good yields are not translating over into the corn.
2:59
It seems like we are 20 to 25 bushels below last year.
6:30
And I'm wondering whether it's moved past that and looking to see what actually is coming out of the field.
14:27
Greg Johnson, Thursday from TGM and their Champaign location.
14:31
I talked to an agronomist and he said it was because of all the rain we had in August, that's what was cau- causing the discoloration of the soybeans, and, you know, they don't look the greatest.
14:41
Uh, I'd say they're, you know, 10% of the beans in a sample have this discoloration to them, and, uh, hopefully, uh, it, it becomes a non-issue, but that is the one concern that I've heard that, uh, uh, some of the end users are questioning, you know, why are the beans, uh, as discolored this year as they have been?
15:07
Yeah
15:07
...
15:07
so we, if, if it's not, uh, FM or damage or test weight or moisture, it does not get, uh, discounted.
15:13
Those are the only four factors that, uh, that would get discounted, uh, uh, unless there's a lot of pods in it or, or, you know, something like that.
15:21
But, uh, no, uh, just the discoloration of itself, uh, is not a grade factor, so that, so there, there has been no discount at this point.
45:11
What's the setup over there in that area? You know, how much farm storage is there, and how much comes to town in the fall?
45:18
I think, uh, farmers have built storage, uh, not in the last two or three years.
45:23
I think the cost of building storage the last couple years has been pretty prohibitive, but I think a lot of storage got built prior to that.
45:30
Uh, what we're seeing a little bit more of here in the last year or two is the temporary storage with the white vinyl bags, uh, out in the field.
45:36
We're seeing some farmers, uh, some of the larger farmers go to that, uh, type of temporary storage.
45:42
I think there's enough storage in general, but when everybody wants to go in the same week, you know, that second week of October, um, it, it's just hard to...
45:51
You know, we...
48:14
I mean, you know, we're right at five bucks now on December on futures, so we're down almost 50 cents off our high, so are you getting much business done?
2:01
What did the market do today? Has it taken a look and made any moves ahead of this Friday USDA crop production report?
2:10
We had a nice rally yesterday, on Tuesday.
2:13
Uh, there were several supportive factors yesterday.
2:16
Um, and we followed through for a while this morning.
2:19
Uh, beans were up, uh, three to five cents.
2:22
Corn was up a penny or two.
2:24
Uh, but, uh, just here in the last hour, um, as, uh, we approach the midday, uh, we, we've seen, uh, pretty much a sell-off, and, uh, corn is now down five to six, beans are down six to seven.
3:35
I take it they're happy with that crop?
3:14
What numbers did they show us today?
3:16
For corn, it was much higher than what traders were expecting.
3:21
USDA came out this morning with an ending stocks number of 2.095 billion bushels.
3:29
That's up almost half a billion bushels from last year's ending stocks number on September 1 of 2025, which was 1.55 billion bushels.
3:39
And this 2.095 number is much higher than what the traders were expecting.
3:44
The average trade guess was 1.924.
3:46
So this 2.095 number is 170 million bushels higher, yes, than what the trade was expecting.

7 MINS LATER

10:26
Now, putting all of that together, what does that tell you, if anything, which has really changed in the marketplace?
3:28
I won't say wildly volatile because these weren't anything near, you know, limit moves for the day, but... 12 15 16 18 cents sometimes on soybeans corn you know eight eight cents or so uh lower today they were higher earlier in the week all about marking time waiting for the two presidents to meet and what the announcements might be if any coming out of them related to agriculture tomorrow
3:54
exactly every all eyes are on washington dc uh hoping that we get some announcement uh secretary Besant and Jamison Greer both said to expect some kind of an announcement after the meetings.
4:08
So, I mean, but I think that's what they're supposed to say is that we should expect something.
4:12
But that may or may not happen.
4:14
Sometimes we get a little disappointed, you know, waiting for announcements.
4:19
We'll see.
4:21
But you're right.
5:40
Has basis for corn or soybeans broken very much at this point?

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