Yeah

... and First Nations.

Uh, works with not just Alberta, but the whole country.

And we need to disentangle our constitutional responsibilities.

We need to recognize that, uh, provinces are not just junior partners in all of this, but they have, you know, exclusivity in certain areas of jurisdiction that the federal government should, you know, stay out of, and that there are areas of federal jurisdiction that the provinces should stay out of.

And where there is a crossover, say in an area like environment, this is where you have to have cooperative federalism.

Yeah.

You know, e- emerging in the 1960s was the expression, "。We want to be masters of our own house。" Well, uh, that s- should be true in Quebec as it relates to their constitutional jurisdiction.

Um, is there one single thing in this debate, in the so-called separation debate, that you think that Albertans are most certain about that maybe they shouldn't be so certain about?

That's an interesting question.

I mean, I, I think that, uh, many Albertans, including those that would choose to stay in Canada, uh, do have a certain amount of angst as it relates to, uh, the manner in which Alberta's been treated over the last 50 years.

Um, and it, you know, we've, we've looked at the polling.

The polling suggests that, uh, it's about 70/30.

About 70% of Albertans want to stay, and about 30% want to leave, and they are fairly locked in.

But even among those that, um- ... are, uh, are, are promoting, uh, saying yes to a referendum.

He's acknowledging that this has been a long-standing, kind of, kind of bubbling either under the surface and maybe now it feels like bubbling over the pot.

Well, if you're advising Mark Carney right now, what's the first move he should make? Do you respond in kind or do you try to de-escalate?

Well, I think that what the prime minister is doing is he's on the right track in terms of responding, but not overreacting to President Trump's tactics.

So we've seen in the past a number of occasions where tariffs were threatened in earlier rounds of this trade war, and they've either been modified or they've been halted completely ahead of the implementation date.

So we've got this 30-day gap between the president's announcement and the implementation of these tariffs.

So there's a common phrase that's been used to describe the president, the taco strategy, which is that Trump always chickens out.

And so I think it's worth noting and this is really important a 50 is a huge tariff there's no ifs and or buts about that but it applies to a very very narrow slice of trade and so it's not a 50 tariff on the entire canadian economy's uh exports to the us it's it it's about five and a half percent of canada's exports and so um when you look at the overall tariff rate that Canadians have vis-a-vis the United States.

It's still among the very, very best of all trading partners of the U.S. Now, that's not to say that it's not significant in some areas.

How much of this is politics versus policy? And is there actually room here for quiet diplomacy, maybe behind the scenes?

Where do you see this issue sitting in the context of Alberta and the broader context of potentially a new pipeline? Where do you see this project at this moment?

Well, let me say, first of all, I think it's an important project.

And in part, it's because of trying to reduce your reliance upon our biggest marketplace, which is the United States.

So since the opening up of TMX, instead of 97% of our oil going to the U.S., it's now down to 90%.

So the United States will always be our biggest customer for oil.

And there's renewed interest in what had been Keystone XL pipeline being completed to the United States.

Right now, South Bow has all of the permits and a lot of the infrastructure is built between Hardesty, Alberta and the U.S. border.

The system doesn't allow for it.

Um, where do you see this issue sitting, this, from, in the context of Alberta and the broader context of potentially a new pipeline? Where d- where do you s- see, uh, this project at this moment?

Well, let me say, first of all, I think it's an important project, and it, in part, it's because of, uh, trying to reduce your reliance upon our biggest marketplace, which is the United States.

So since the opening up of, uh, TMX, um, instead of 97% of our oil going to the US, it's now down to 90.

Uh, so, uh, the United States will always be our biggest customer for oil, and there's, uh, renewed interest in, uh, what had been, uh, Keystone XL Pipeline being completed, uh, uh, to the United States.

Right now, uh, South Bow has, uh, all of the permits and a lot of the infrastructure is built between Hardisty, Alberta, and the US border, and, uh, there's some suggestion that there will be interest on the southern side of the border to actually complete the rest of the pipeline to go to Steel City.

Um, so that's important, but going to the West Coast allows us to, um, uh, diversify our marketplaces, and so I think it's important.

The challenge for it right now, and, and there are many, uh, would include, uh, recent discussions, uh, that have been had among, uh, major oil producers that as long as you've got an industrial carbon tax and, uh, the burden of, uh, trying to do the Pathways Project, which is a carbon capture, uh, and storage, uh, project, it's going to be hard to make our oil, um, uh, you know, competitive in the marketplace if you have to build in these additional costs to it.

The system doesn't allow for it.

So to hear political theory based on wrestling, I snickered when I heard this, so you better walk us through it.

Well, look, Christian, you yourself have talked about how politics has become a bit of Hollywood, and the wrestling analogy is maybe a little further even than what you suggested, because you talked about people like Arnold Schwarzenegger, who I've met, and by the way, is a hell of a lot smarter than most people give him credit for.

But in 2016, the CBC had interviewed me, and it was a live panel, And because I'd spent time in the United States, the guy from CBC asked me, well, how would you assess the chances of the 16 people that are seeking the nomination for the Republican presidential ticket? And there were people like friends of Brad Wall's, like Senator Lindsey Graham and other friends like John Kasich, who was the governor of Ohio.

Marco Rubio was one of the candidates at that time, and Donald Trump was.

And I had said, look, I know more about pro wrestling, and I want to talk about that before we talk about the presidential nomination.

And I talked about my time as a young lawyer working with the Hart family and that I knew all the boys and Mr. and Mrs. Hart.

And so I'd acted with my law firm for the British Bulldogs at the time.

So if you were going to give a list of trends that producers should be looking at right now based on the work that you're doing right now, what are those trends that primary producers need to keep their eyes open

What would be your top three pieces of advice to give them working through CUSMA?

Well, uh, first of all, uh, I mean, outside of CUSMA, I think that our trade relationship with the United States has changed forever.

We cannot rely simply on CUSMA.

It's important that we get it in place, but we need to be thinking about a longer game as well.

We need to be thinking about 2028 and 2032.

And we need to recognize that, um, the guys in Washington don't run the economies.

Governors run the economies.

So if you were gonna give a list of trends that producers should be looking at right now based on what, I mean, the work that you're doing right now, what, what are those trends that primary producers need to keep their eyes open for?

What do you think, Gary? First impressions of the deal?

Well, let me back up just a bit and say that, you know, the relationship between China and Canada has been one that has gone through cycles of wild optimism and utter despair.

And so this is on the uptick from the utter despair side.

But let's not overstate, you know, what this is going to mean.

I think that the prime minister did pretty well overall.

to maximize the opportunities for economic trade between the two countries, while at the same time, not giving up anything on national security for Canada.

And I think, I think that he's accomplished that.

But what do you say to the overall criticism that this trip was a mistake because it threw Taiwan under the bus, it undermined our own security, and it basically invites Donald Trump to retaliate?

How real is this?

Well, the answer is that it is real.

I mean, you've got individuals that are from the private sector that are on either side of the premier when she's making her announcements.

And, you know, one can understand why up front you wouldn't have a private proponent offering up because there are barriers that need to be knocked down in order to make this project work.

And the good news is, I mean, this sort of thing is done before.

You know, there are lots of people that poo-pooed the idea of, you know, LNG Canada.

And now they're, you know, one of the Projects that's going forward to the major projects office is an expansion, phase two of that.

What do you say to that?