So how does it work in South Africa? Primarily it's now cell phone-based, right? I mean, is that not one of the issues with those historical poles that got it wrong is that they didn't adapt for how many people use cell phones versus landlines? I mean, how does it work in South Africa?

So there are three fundamental methods through which you can undertake market research.

You can either do it online, which is not yet possible in South Africa.

We don't have enough internet access, or at least it's too expensive for people to be able to do it properly.

The other option is cell phones, which is a universal method now.

Almost everyone in the world over very high penetration rates of cell phones.

You can reach almost every part of the sample.

So it's going to be a factor if that party truly convinces people that it is a colored party.

But your analysis suggests that they are on track to do probably at least as well as they have in previous local government elections.

Yeah, I mean, for me, I think this is one of the most interesting findings in the track.

And it is counterintuitive, because if you look at the kind of public state of the EFF and the kind of stories that have surrounded them, Malema's conviction, people defecting away from the party, you know, it getting munched by MK in 2024, you would certainly be left with the impression that this was a party in a fundamental crisis.

But The EFF's by-election track is really solid.

It shows some small amount of growth.

I mean, it's not shooting the light side or anything, but it's never slipped into any kind of fundamental decline.

And on all the various indicators, there are a range of them in the by-election track.

I mean, the

Is a DA outright majority in Johannesburg genuinely achievable, or is it more of an aspirational campaign slogan?

[laughs] Okay, well, just to be clear, that's not my target, that's the DA's target.

Uh, Helen Zille argues that if the DA gets, I think it's just under 500,000 votes, uh, in other words, individual voters who are willing to vote for the DA, they will get a 51% majority.

So there are two ways to assess this.

The one is to assess whether that, the maths on that particular calculation are correct, and I think, I think it is.

I think if the DA does manage to get 500,000 votes, given the decline in turnout, it will be able to secure a 51% majority.

The next question is, of course, is that a realistic goal, however credible it is, and, and I think it is probably a stretch too far for the DA.

Is she still the party's greatest electoral asset when it comes to this particular election, or do you think she still limits the party's appeal in key communities?

Is a DA outright majority in Johannesburg genuinely achievable, or is it more of an aspirational campaign slogan?

[laughs] Okay.

Well, just to be clear, that's not my target.

That's the DA's target.

Uh, Helen Zille argues that if the DA gets, I think it's just under 500,000 votes, uh, in other words, individual voters who are willing to vote for the DA, they will get a 51% majority.

So there are two ways to assess this.

The one is to assess whether that, the maths on that particular calculation are correct, and I think, I think it is.

Is she still the party's greatest electoral asset when it comes to this particular election, or do you think she still limits the party's appeal in key communities?