So if yields go up, the cost of debt goes up, and that basically deflates the bubble, right?

That's right.

That's right.

And, and really that's what we're seeing is that, you know, the AI trade is so leveraged, right? I mean, it's like a Bitcoin long 300X where if rates go up too much, all of a sudden the whole thing gets liquidated, right? It all comes crashing down.

And we saw this o- with CoreWeave just the other day where their debt, their credit default swaps, which is essentially the interest rate on their debt in the future, was at a 15% interest rate.

And again, if you, if you're borrowing to $100 billion as a company and you're gonna have to pay 15%, I mean, these are, these are numbers that it just, the math doesn't work.

And so, ultimately, there's this big scare going through.

I mean, I saw gold at, like, f- close to 4,000 or...

Um, you've obviously got the resilience of this economy, which continues to drive yields higher as well.

Yeah, and I, I think it's a little bit of everything here.

So absolutely the, the Valeros, the Phillips 99s, they've gone parabolic here based on diesel and the crack spread.

Um, and so I think that that's part of it, but I do think we're entering this new normal, right? Where we're gonna get these pullbacks, especially if the economy weakens, and I think to some extent that's already beginning, right? We're starting to see some of the economic data, like the last jobs report, come in just a little bit more shy.

And if you look at Jamie Dimon's comments today after their earnings, or on their earnings call, he also warned about the underbelly of the economy.

And so when you have yields where they are, when you have gas prices and diesel prices where they are, and inflation continuing to stay stubbornly north of 3%, there's going to be a point where it weakens that overall economy.

And I think that's the one caveat that could take yields back below 5%, is if we start to see that weakening.

But if the tech, tech, tech people are making these comments, not just the big sort of veteran investment guys, what does that tell you? I mean, should we be paying attention to what they're saying or is it just noise?

I think people are getting nervous and saying, "Do I cash in, or do I try to sort of ride my equity exposure a little bit longer?" What's your thinking around this market action?

Yeah, and it's interesting because, you know, we have seen oil come back in a little bit from the recent highs, yet yields have stuck around on the 10-year around this 5.3, 5.35 level, and at the same time, just yesterday we made a new all-time high on the S&P.

So, you know, why haven't we sold off more? And I would say a couple reasons here, and this actually continues to keep me bullish into year-end on the market.

Granted, I don't see a lot of upside, but I could see us heading to about 8,000.

But the key factors here are is that we saw the PCE data, which is inflation data.

It came in a little bit better than expected, being less inflation than had been anticipated.

Yet we're still seeing strong economic data, and so I think part of the factor that's keeping the S&P up is that a good economy does elevate yields, as we know, but a good economy also adds earnings potential to stocks, and we know earnings have been robust.

Mm-hmm

... what happened here?

And I think, I think...

Yeah, I think, I think you're bringing up a great point.

I mean, so many people are in this conundrum of saying, "Wait a minute, yields are at 5.3%.

This is a, 2000, since 2002 the highest point on y- the 10-year yield.

Why are the s- why is the stock market rallying?" And I'm gonna show this graphic here that I created.

I think it's so insightful to help you guys understand exactly what is going on.

Uh, are you cautious at all on the S&P 500, or are you, have you shifted to a more bullish stance for 2027?

Uh, what do the charts tell you about oil?

Yeah, and you're right about that.

I mean, the...

A- and for people to understand that, a lot of people may not fully understand it, so think about it simply like this, is that the higher oil goes or the longer it stays elevated, the more inflation gets pushed through all the way to the consumer.

The more inflation to the consumer, the higher interest rates have to go to essentially fight that inflation, right? That's what the Fed does, raises rates to fight inflation.

So that's why they are so tied together.

Now, in terms of oil, I actually think...

... why, why necessarily does it even have to happen even after so much time has passed and it hasn't happened already?

They're preparing for a crisis-type situation.

It, it is a little shocking to hear that language.

And a- and again, it's one thing to, you know, think it and do the action, but to use those terms really tells you that they really do see a bigger issue coming.

And this is kind of coordinated with what I'm fearful of at the end of this decade going into the 2030s, that we have a 100-year cycle of the Great Depression.

And if you look at what's going on, you're seeing China buying gold hand over fist, and arguably the, the stories are saying they're actually buying more gold than actually is being reported.

So they're buying a ton.

We know Fort Knox has been in the, in the s- in the news in the US.

Uh, silver, is it following gold's lead here? What's it telling you?

Paint me a clearer picture of what you see happening.

Yeah, so really you're having the trajectory, right? So if you look at where yields are, we're now in this new paradigm of yields are going to remain higher for longer.

And you're in this point where we're not seeing the dollar being the control.

So essentially what we saw over the last couple of decades is inflation near zero until COVID.

And the reason is, is because the dollar being the dominant currency of the world and being in such demand, we essentially were able to push off inflation for a long period of time by that dollar being, again, the reserve currency.

But as you see, de-dollarization is going to weaken the dollar, which then imports inflation, right? So a weaker dollar, you could say, oh, well, great for manufacturing.

Well, yeah, to a certain extent it is.

So talk us through that.

Here's Gareth.

Yeah, and, and I would say you get above 5% on the 10-year, that is going to get scary.

And the issue here is now is that it's, it's, it's not just, wow, my mortgage is gonna be a little bit higher.

We already know that the, the housing market is really struggling.

In certain areas of the country it's okay still.

In places like Florida, it is bad.

Like, I just talked to a broker in this, in this area here, and she said it's as bad as '08, uh, the same as that point, that-

Yeah

What does this look like, Gareth, especially going into Clarity [laughs] next month?

Yeah.

So, so the first thing that caught my attention was the fact that it pierced a dollar, because what we know is that the general public is gonna play stops right there, and I'm sure there was a ton of liquidations that went off.

There was a lot of volume right there.

And what I loved actually about XRP is that it almost immediately bounced back above a dollar.

And one of the things that's catching my eye here is that you're now trading almost flat on the chart here.

I mean, this is not a bad setup, and potentially on a technical analysis basis, this could be a bottoming tail.

Mm-hmm.

What do you see in store for gold moving forward here? Is there brighter news?

There is to some extent, right? So when we look, and this is so fascinating what's going on with gold, because my longer-term cycle projections show us another wave of massive buying in gold that's going to push it up to $13,000 or beyond.

That target again is 2029 to 2031.

So it's still a little ways away, but it will come fast.

And one of the things we're watching very closely is this wedge pattern on gold right now.

And we can see it's pounding on the upper side of that over and over again.

And so really what I'm looking at is, do we get a breakout in gold here from this longer term downsloping or descending wedge? If that happens, that should begin the next bull move in gold.

Do you think that there's a huge loss of confidence happening in Bitcoin or trust about keeping money in Bitcoin? Yeah.

Take a listen.

It's based on a calculator that I created, and essentially the calculator takes into effect multiple factors.

One is how fast is the money supply? The...

And again, we're not talking US money supply, global money supply running.

And right now it's running at 7%.

So if you just assume over the next five years at 7.5% or greater, that starts to push the cycle of gold.

And what we looked at here is when you have the first cycle between 1980, the second peak, peak was 2011.

Soloway stopped and gave me the level where he thought he was watching

First time we speak in, in years, um, what do you make of, um, what we're seeing, uh, right now in Iran? What, what impact does it have, having on, on the global economy? Uh, what do you make of the energy markets? Uh, are they factoring in the, the, the risk of the war prolonging? Um, and what do you make of inflation? You know, just kind of a, a full brain dump.

Yeah, I think for me, you know, there's definitely less impact by what's going on, at least on the financial markets, than what we've seen in past situations.

Like, if you go back to previous, like, you know, situations where there was oil disruption, oil was much more concentrated in terms of coming out of the Middle East, and that created a scenario where oil went much, much higher.

The independence that the US has gotten in terms of its energy production has really lessened that.

And also, I think a lot of the lack of upside in oil, and again, we're back in that $80 range, but it's mainly because the market really thinks it understands President Trump and his lack of conviction for pushing forward on the Iranian side to anything more than just bombing, right? So midterms are coming.

It's not popular here in the US, and the markets are saying, "We don't think it's gonna go any further than this," and there's enough oil out there that prices don't need to rise.

Now, on the inflation side, you have two situations.

Maybe you can compare gold to Bitcoin, the great debate.

I mean, how does gold get from around $4,000 to 13,000?

Yeah, so the, it's based on a calculator that I created, and essentially the calculator takes into effect multiple factors.

One is, how fast is the money supply? The...

And again, we're not talking US money supply.

Global money supply running.

And right now it's running at 7%.

So if you just assume over the next five years at 7.5% or greater, that starts to push the cycle of gold.

Right

What's different this time?

So we have the chart of the NASDAQ in front of us, and we have the massive run that took place from March 30th all the way up to the recent highs in early June.

But from that point, notice how we started to put in lower highs.

Low, high, lower high, and even right here, these highs are lower than the last high.

Now, the one missing link to a, to a bigger correction is that we haven't made lower lows.

We're basically flatlining.

But the pattern here to me, as long as it holds, is one of consolidation.

Uh, but other than that, what else happened?

Talk us through your gold outlook right now.

Yeah, so gold, if we look at the chart here, this did come into some key support.

So notice this beautiful trend line, high pivot here, low support, support.

Every time it hits this line, it's scanning about and we have this beautiful downsloping trend line.

And so what this is creating is what we call a wedge pattern.

Wedge patterns squeeze price tighter and tighter until it explodes in one direction.

Now, listen, if it breaks above this trend line, which currently sits around 4,300, then I honestly might say to you, we might not get to 3,500.

was where on March 13th when we had that conversation?

Pull up that gold chart, Gareth, please.

So what we see, obviously, is gold has really come down.

We've pierced this 4,000 even number.

And generally, even numbers psychologically are levels where when it gets below, when you see that three handle on gold instead of a four handle, there is going to be some buying.

And we could absolutely see it.

I mean, look at the beauty of this trend line going back to October of 2025.

Kisses right here when it broke above it in December.

Has it gone lower now or what's a key level you're looking at right now, Gareth, on that chart?

Is there other sectors that could, you know, soften the blow, perhaps?

I do think so.

I think there's always money rotation, right? The only time you don't get money rotation is at the end of bear markets where everyone is too scared to buy anything.

But right now, we're just coming off all-time highs.

And so institutional money managers, they do not want to they make no money when cash is on the sidelines.

So they're always looking to say, okay, well, we may sell some of the AI stocks, but where are we going to be reallocating that capital? What's beaten down? What's overdone to the downside? Where can we put that money to make ourselves some additional money with our clients? And I do think, you know, you can look at CRM The beat down here, I mean, had this great pop just over the last week or two, and it's come all the way back in.

Major support around 165 here, which is very, very interesting.

But if I look at the green candle the day before today, there might be some truth to it.

What do you think?

So number one is this reminds me of Facebook when it became public, uh, years and years ago.

There was so much hype.

The initial day literally it opened way above where the insiders got their IPO shares, and then it faded throughout the course of the next multiple months.

Um, it wouldn't shock me if that's going to happen.

And it, what concerns me is they're selling so much more stock than normal IPOs to the retail public, and I've actually, you know, I've heard friends, a friend saying, "Hey, I'm, I've, I'm getting ready.

I think this is going to 500 or $1,000 a share." And listen, in years from now it may, but it's unlikely based on their...

Yeah.

Granted, some of them are still taking a lot of equity and a lot of fundraising, but What's different about this to where some pundits would say this is a super cycle that we haven't seen before?

Yeah, and so you're right about that.

I mean, that's the one angle that is continuing to push the bubble higher is that you actually have real earnings from the NVIDIAs of the world and other names like that.

What I would say is that you basically have the same mentality.

You're seeing investors flock into these to the point where hedge funds are more exposed to these names to the point where they only have 3% cash left on their balance sheet, which is almost unprecedented in a hedge fund's portfolio.

And they're way overloaded, retail investors way overloaded.

And it's all based on the assumption that margins will always stay where they are, meaning competition will never come, which we know is false.

Where do you put Tesla in this mix right now? How would you chart Tesla as it plays into what's happening with SpaceX?

So now what news does Gareth Soloway bring when it comes to gold prices?

Yeah, and, and to be clear, I'm still very bullish long term.

There's been no change in any of the debt scenarios that I've seen, inclusive of what we're seeing in Japan, which we'll talk about in just a little bit.

But really, unless there was a big U-turn in the US government and central banks around the world and other governments, gold is the long-term asset, along with probably silver and other precious metals, that really will give people that security that they crave.

Um, now, in the short term, there's a different story here, and the different story is that we're now in a short-term downtrend, and the chart clearly shows that with highs, lower high, lower high, lower low, lower low.

And you can see how gold continues to react as a risk asset.

And again, historically, Daniela, you know this, it's really not a risk asset, so it shouldn't be behaving like one.

Um, do you think it's g- gonna be a- as big as a story here?

The, the fact that stock markets are kind of, um, I guess benign is my, is my word that I would use, not really moving up and down in either direction right now, what does that signal to you?

Yeah.

So this is amazing because for me it looks, this looks like a rounded top very similar to what happened in 2008.

Now again, I'm very hesitant to go out on a limb and say, "Hey, we're just about to have a financial crisis again." But I wanna show you this chart.

All right, so this is a chart here of the current S&P, and we can see here it's got a rounded top to it, which is the, the distribution, right? So you keep telling or, or you program people to buy the dip, but institutions are selling into it, right? So you have retail buying, retail buying, institutional money selling, selling, selling.

The underline, the blue line, you know what that is? That is crude oil.

All right, so crude oil obviously has spiked.

... kind of four-year cycle?

Mm.

But what he can do, and what he did do, is do a blanket.

If he does a blanket tariff, there's a way he can do that.

And you're right, he went from 10% to 15% over the weekend, um, even raising it more.

And that's what the markets are unnerve- unnerved about.

So on Friday we rallied after hotter than expected inflation because the tariffs were struck down.

So the market said to themselves, "Okay, well, you know, we have hotter inflation, but if you get rid of the tariffs, it should bring inflation down." Over the weekend, him putting it at 15% ratchets it right back up and makes that inflation data now meaningful again from Friday's PCE data.

Um, how do you approach that problem, Gareth?

You know, what are you expecting in the short term?

Yeah, so it's interesting because, you know, number one is we've really seen this very steep decline in two separate arenas, right? We had the high, the all time high where we fell down to this 81,000 low, then we kind of consolidated.

And this is a classic bearish formation, which then led us to this latest drop.

Now, I will be the first to say that I don't think the nastiness is over just yet.

But in the near term, I am expecting a relief rally.

And so what we do have in the near term, and this is so again, we have to kind of keep our minds in multiple timeframes.

So if we look at the next week or two, I actually think there is a relief of upside in Bitcoin here.

And it

Yeah.

And timing is always key.

And listen, just because it's gone up so much, it generally, because things are fundamentally shifting in the global sphere and in the US, it's probably not gonna parabolically drop as much, but you will have a flush out.

That's what we know from technical analysis.

Now, the bigger question is where, right? I would've thought it would've been this pierce of 2,000...

Uh, excuse me, $5,000 per ounce.

We have not seen that yet.

Uh, does this have any impact on, on, on the stock markets?

But, uh, tell us more.

Yeah.

And so, and we've also had other news, right? I mean, there's been so many factors in the AI space that have deflated this bubble somewhat, at least.

For instance, we talk about the depreciation of these chips, how these hyperscalers are depreciating the chips over seven years.

So they're marking down that loss based on seven years.

But in actuality, these, these d- uh, chips, because the technology is moving fast, uh, forward, those chips are basically going to zero within two to three years.

And so they're really increasing artificially their earnings, and I think the markets are starting to see through that.

And then what happens post-January? Why is there going to be a selling?