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Francesco De Stradis

Oct 27, 2026

35:39
Mario?
35:40
Look, I think the whole sector will re-rate once we see peak interest rates.
35:45
If you want to have a look at the whole sector, you can see the last 12 months probably come off 15% or probably more in some areas.
35:53
So I think the whole sector has taken a bit of a beating over the last 12 to 18 months.
35:58
If we see, I think inflation numbers are probably out now already, but if we see another interest rate rise this year, which we're expecting, I reckon we're at the top, if not close to the top of the interest rate cycle.
36:14
So I think buying into the property trust sector or the REIT sector is not a bad move gradually over the next 12 to 18 months.
36:25
Andrew's 100% right, most Aussies have some form of direct property ownership, which means when you look at an asset allocation, you're probably allocating zero when you're giving advice to a client.

6 MINS LATER

42:58
Nobody does though.
39:31
Okay, I'll call it a bye.
39:33
Francesco? Yeah, look, just to state on what Ben was suggesting there, that once this conflict in the Middle East ends, it'll be some time before the oil price.
39:45
You'll get that initial reaction when everyone says it's all over and you'll have the initial reaction of the oil price probably falling down to $70 a barrel.
39:55
But then when reality sets in, you're probably looking at 12 to 18 months of production to get it back to where it was prior to the conflict.
40:06
So you'll have the initial fall and then the markets will realise that, well, we're not back to pre-war supply.
40:17
it'll adjust itself back up again.
40:19
I would say I would bet on a hold.

7 MINS LATER

47:45
But, Francesco, you're
6:52
Do US business, um, looks to be accelerating?
6:55
Well, well, I think, I, I think the mar- what the market's just focused on here is, is the second half recovery, um, and looking forward into FY27.
7:04
Um, look, it's, it is discretionary spending.
7:07
It's, you know, all about four-wheel drives, I suppose.
7:09
Um, there is bits and pieces hanging off the edges.
7:12
Um, but, um, you know, being, uh, you know, having sales internationally and we saw last year they hit record sales, but, you know, didn't do much for the share price last year.
7:22
Um, and, and sales were a bit lower this year, but that was due to the first half.

9 MINS LATER

16:23
Francesco?
6:31
So what do our experts think of it? Francesco? And of course, recently launching a $175 million cap rise to pay for that Mars acquisition.
6:40
Yeah, look, um, we like this at Ord Minnett.
6:43
Um, look, it's, uh, EOS has transitioned from a, a, a turnaround story, I suppose, uh, into a defense growth story.
6:50
Um, you know, they've, they've always...
6:53
Well, not always, recently, um, uh, stressed that they've got record order books.
6:58
Um, I think that upgrade sort of reinforces that, that, that order book that they have.
7:03
Um, look, acquisitions, they take time to, to see how they fit into other businesses, but, um, all indications so far is that it should fit in neatly, um, as far as it being a, a business that, um, um, i- is a, a drone counteractive, uh, measure, if you like.

29 MINS LATER

36:04
What are you seeing there, Francesco?
6:42
What will you be looking at?
6:45
Look, earnings expectations are relatively high for some of the, particularly the large cap stocks.
6:51
And look, once we get through the confession season, most people tend to know that the analysts are pretty close to the mark with their earnings expectations for this financial year just gone.
7:02
I think what...
7:04
most brokers and investors are looking for is their FY27 outlook statements.
7:10
And, you know, there'll be a couple of months of operations under their belt in the new financial year.
7:16
So they'll give a bit of an update on how trading is going as well.
8:18
Finally, and in wrapping up, what are you telling your clients right now? Where do you see the opportunities for investors?
7:40
It's what they're expecting to come down next.
7:42
Exactly.
7:43
And that good number that you saw just then come out of Europe, I mean, how much of that is part of the acquisition that they made? I think, you know, we're looking at, I think it was eight KFC stores in Munich.
7:54
So I don't know what that translates to in revenue, but...
7:58
Is that part of the reason why they've seen, what was it, 23% growth at the start of the year? Look, the revenue numbers were good.
8:09
NPAT was up 13%, to $61 million.
8:11
They're all good numbers.

12 MINS LATER

20:28
Do you see things differently?
17:53
And also from a growth perspective, I would go a sell as well until there was a noticeable improvement in the numbers being delivered from their liquor retailing division.
18:04
Okay, I'm the opposite.
18:06
I think this is a turnaround story, not from an income perspective.
18:09
Yeah, the dividend yield at the moment looks attractive at 5%, but that's because the share price is where it is, you know, the old term of a dividend trap.
18:18
But look, I think... earnings softened in the first half of 2026.
18:25
Yes, there might be a dividend reduction, so that takes us out of our income side of things.
18:31
But as Michael mentioned, they have been focused on market share.

34 MINS LATER

53:00
This is not unrelated, obviously, we're talking...
20:43
What do you think about the AI launch and the outlook for Xero?
20:48
Yeah, look, here's another one similar to NetWealth and Hub, you know, trading on multiples that are extremely high, you know, cloud-based accounting, but their PEs are up in the cloud as well.
21:02
And all it takes is one misstep and, you know, those prices start to become a little bit more attractive for a buyer than a seller.
21:13
Look, I can state that our analysts have a buy on the stock.
21:17
um i don't tend to agree um with that um for the sheer fact that the valuation um you know it's trading on 60 times earnings to me that's just um too high um too much risk um look you know it has traded up as high as what nearly two hundred dollars there um yeah If I think back to when this company first started, everyone was sort of intrigued by it being cloud-based accounting, which all the cloud means is it stores its data offsite.
21:50
I mean, there's no brain surgery in that, I don't think.
21:54
AI is a different kettle of fish, I think.

12 MINS LATER

33:56
What about you, Francesca?
10:27
What's the market thinking though?
10:30
Yeah, well, when the results came out, it sent the ASX 200 index south quite quickly, but it recovered really quickly as well.
10:40
So from an investment point of view, I think investors are quite happy with the larger index.
10:47
blue chip companies in the marketplace and they started buying them up again.
10:51
I think from the market point of view, if we are expecting more rate hikes, and I wouldn't rule that out, I think today's result was, I suppose, an indication that that inflation number is fairly sticky because the headline rate was up at 3.8.
11:09
The trim mean, which is what the Reserve Bank works off, is 3.4.
11:14
So still well outside their target range of 2% to 3%.
12:11
And finally, Francesco, what are you telling your clients right now and where do you see the opportunities for investors?
10:26
Francesco.
10:27
Yeah, look, touching on what I just mentioned with Monodelphus, a good company.
10:32
This is a great company.
10:33
They're the leaders in this space.
10:37
But what I try and do is look at the company and say, well, they're good operators and they know what they're doing.
10:43
They've got a good track record.
10:45
Okay, what price am I prepared to pay? I think this is expensive.

29 MINS LATER

39:24
Respect default position.
7:33
So do you like it?
7:35
We do like it.
7:36
You know, contrary to Rudy, we've got a buy recommendation.
7:40
A lot of the guys have got a valuation of 240.
7:43
So there's some upside based upon their valuation.
7:48
We've seen this quarterly result is, you know, operationally quite strong.
7:55
Yeah, the production was, you know, A little bit of hit and miss here and there, but the Wabunga project has shown marked improvement in their efficiency.

26 MINS LATER

34:04
So REITs, do they interest you?
35:04
Francesco, I'll start with you.
35:07
We don't have a lot of coverage on this.
35:09
We do have a bio-recommendation, highly speculative.
35:13
Look, it's a company that's in clinical stage biotech, focused on radiopharmaceuticals using copper isotopes, whatever that means.
35:29
Look, I don't know a lot about this stock.
35:32
I don't know a lot about the space either, what they're trying to achieve, but it's obviously diagnosing certain cancers in patients.
35:43
There's prostate cancer.

7 MINS LATER

43:05
I mean, obviously it suffered toward the beginning of the year, but is Civmec a way that you would play this sort of engineering industrial thematic?
10:19
All right, Francesco, obviously, and also Michael, just as far as the dividend growth is concerned.
10:23
Yeah, look, I sort of agree with some points and disagree with others.
10:27
I suppose that's what makes a market.
10:28
So if he's a seller, I'll buy off him.
10:32
Look, I do like this business from an income sort of play.
10:36
If you want to compare it to, say, Woolies and Coles, which is not a real... direct comparison because they're retailers.
10:45
Yes, Medcash has the retail element, but it's also got the wholesale, got the hardware and all, and that side of it.

24 MINS LATER

34:34
Francesco, what about...
9:05
But, yeah, we've got PLS in the lithium space at the moment.
9:09
Yeah, OK.
9:10
All right, Francesco, over to you.
9:11
Yeah, look, I'm...
9:13
I suppose, on the opposite side.
9:14
Mark, I like this stock.
9:17
Yes, it's had some issues, not only with the road into the mine, but also with some, I suppose, directorships and...

25 MINS LATER

34:15
Francesco.
35:22
Francesco?
35:23
Yeah, look, I don't mind it.
35:25
Look, and as Ben mentioned, you know, it's a bit cyclical.
35:30
But the yield's sufficient enough, I think, you're being rewarded from a yield perspective to hang on to it.
35:38
And it's fully franked.
35:40
It's PE is in the low teens, so it's not expensive.
35:43
I don't mind it.

8 MINS LATER

43:24
yeah yep it looks like it and you know that it's hard to see the regulations on the banks being wound back because that ultimately is how businesses like this are flourishing okay they do deal with probably it's not like the prime people wanting to get a mortgage it's that second tier yeah they might struggle a bit more got less competition
6:26
Now, a question coming to us from Abby saying, what are the prospects of holding this stock long-term or short-term?
6:34
Francesco.
6:36
Look, I like this business.
6:38
I looked at it a number of years ago and it's sort of fallen off the radar a little bit.
6:42
And I think that's what happens with these types of stocks in the market, that when the mining boom has disappeared, then these things fall off the radar.
6:53
But Austin Engineering is a company that just continually... generates activity with their contracts.
7:02
And their contracts are with the large miners, BHPs and Rios.

14 MINS LATER

21:11
No. Francesca?
7:32
In fact, they're down with the rest of the market, right? So I'm keen to get your take on what do you make of these threats, the potential implications, especially on those three huge companies, right? And what do you think the market reaction says about it?
7:46
Yeah.
7:47
Look, the three biggest exporters that Australia export to the US are meat and meat products, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.
7:58
So not a lot of our commodities go from Australia to the US.
8:02
They probably end up in the US indirectly through either China or other manufacturing countries, but a lot of our commodities don't end up there.
8:13
So if you look at what the tariff placed on copper.
8:17
Look, BHP and Rio are the two miners that everyone knows in Australia.
10:16
Elsewhere, any other company news you're looking out for today?
8:36
So it's Remelius, right, that's looking to acquire it? Remelius
8:38
is acquiring it.
8:40
So to Andrew's point, he's right, they haven't produced yet, but they just raised about $50 million to move into production.
8:49
And I think that's what you can see in the share price there.
8:53
You've got these phases of... of resources companies when they're exploring, they, you know, up and down, up and down, and when they prove up the resource, then there's a big leverage in the share price.
9:04
Then they start building the operations, and there's a lot of capex, and they're going to raise a lot of money.
9:10
Share price is very stagnant during that period, and then when they move into production, then there's another uplift.

11 MINS LATER

19:53
What do you make of Westpac as an investment opportunity?
14:45
Francesco, what are your thoughts, given how far it's fallen?
14:48
Okay, well, let's start with the scale-up of the Onslow project.
14:51
I mean, there was some weather issues there, which obviously stifled production, and also some issues with the roads in and out.
15:00
So there's some capex that needs to be spent on it.
15:04
On this stock, look, I think the market has oversold it.
15:07
And it was around the same time that WiseTech got sold off because of CEO issues and governance issues and things like that.
15:15
I think this has probably been oversold.

9 MINS LATER

24:10
Not predictable either.
15:19
Is the worst over? And to what extent has investor sentiment actually changed?
15:26
Yeah, look, Blinken, you missed it.
15:29
You know, the market spans back a lot quicker than I would have expected as well, particularly where, you know, when a lot of this talk about the tariffs started and back when we were in our highs, the markets were, particularly the Australian market, was overvalued.
15:43
The US market was overvalued.
15:45
We come back into some sort of closer to fair value.
15:48
I thought we were still a little bit overvalued, but...
15:51
I think what the market is seeing is some positive momentum on more the talk around the tariffs, about negotiating a better outcome.
19:06
What are you telling your clients at the moment and are there still any opportunities for investors?
Nadine BlayneyADVERTISER
33:33
you're looking for some income, you know,
33:34
our forecasts have got almost 8% yield on it over the next three years.
33:39
Yep.
33:41
That's quite attractive.
33:42
No franking.
33:43
So, you know, if you look at some yields out there that are, say, you know, 5.5% to 6%, then with 100% franking takes you up to those levels.
33:52
But um that looks quite good i do i do like um this type of asset toll roads generally a fairly predictive predictable revenue sources the owners of the roads tend to have good experience in managing the maintenance side of things and that's that's the big risk i think is is the maintenance um most people um That I see, you know, they're not reluctant to jump on the toll roads and pay the tolls these days.

13 MINS LATER

46:56
So I'll go buy on ResMed.
14:29
Hard to get people to sell the banks isn't it?
14:31
It is and really spot on all the all four banks you know even the regionals are very expensive CBAs on 26 times earnings and and you know historically long-term average you're looking at probably 14 or 15. on that with a 5% dividend yield and we're looking at what, two or three.
14:51
So they're not delivering what investors think they should be delivering.
14:57
Now, from a retail investor's point of view, would I sell all my banks? No, because if you're looking at it from a portfolio management perspective, they do form the base of a lot of retail portfolios out there, superannuation funds and the like.
15:12
But I would be looking to lighten my exposure to it and looking at alternatives.
15:18
Like Rudy said, Telstra is one we've been looking at, Medibank Private is another one.
15:22
And these are big blue chip companies that are still going to be here in five years' time and going to deliver dividends and And I think deliver some better returns than the banks will.
19:23
Got it.
32:29
So maybe Australia is ripe for a new sub-QSR, which, you know, they're the buzz right now.
32:35
I'm a bit more sceptical on some of that.
32:38
I mean, if you want to go back to sort of fast food brands and how they've sort of been around for many, many years, McDonald's, you know, how many restaurants have tried to set up and compete against McDonald's.
32:48
And, yeah, there's always going to be a... a competition, but, you know, to overtake McDonald's.
32:54
And they're good at staying ahead.
32:56
Not that I eat much of it.
32:57
I love it, but I won't touch it because I'd be twice the size I am now.

16 MINS LATER

49:29
Did you? Yes, surprise, surprise.
41:44
And if the prices do fall back, becomes a really attractive takeover target, I think it's a really nice way to invest in commodities and give yourself some downside protection.
41:55
I'm a little bit with you, Andrew.
42:01
I become sceptical when companies change their direction.
42:07
Particularly, it's only been listed since September 23, so it hasn't had a great deal of history.
42:14
Yeah, and Luke's right, you know, sometimes, you know, companies like this need to be fairly agile in their approach and, you know, maybe, you know, they've planned to be drilling for lithium and discovered more, you know...
42:32
Well, higher grades of gold than they expected and they've changed their tact, which is not too bad, I would imagine, compared to, say, back in the late 90s where companies were mining companies and drilling holes in the backyards.
42:47
in the outback and then two days later they're IT companies and setting up websites and things like that so not quite as bad as those days but look I don't know enough about it but it Like for my clients and my advice would be too speculative for me to have a look, well, to invest in.
44:40
Francesco, what do you think?

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