That's got to be pretty rare.

There's a lot to do with this game, but I will answer that note.

Road, double-digit favorite, 35-28 to the under, 25-36-2 against the spread.

So, I mean, that's going all the time, Super Bowl era.

Obviously, it doesn't happen often.

Anything you would look at would pretty much just point you to taking Baltimore.

I mean, but that's not looking at who's starting a quarterback, simply just looking at the number.

You rolling with the home dog here?

Who are you rolling with, Evan?

Yeah, this is a game also where the Chiefs easily, based off history and everything we've seen them do, could win this game by one point, which would be fantastic.

Because all Patrick Mahomes does is win and not cover spreads.

But that's not going to be what's predictive and what I think is going to happen this game.

But I will say this.

From a trends perspective, 2-7-1 ATS is Pat's last 10 road starts in the AFC West series.

plus four straight ATS in Denver, scoring fewer than 20 points both games.

What are you looking at on Monday night football?

What do you got?

Yeah, I think it's important also to say, like in handicapping the slate, at least for me this week, I go through a bunch of processes like everyone else does.

Market, injuries, spots, trenches, etc.

When you look at the spot stuff for this week, so I look this up, there are no teams off a loss of more than one possession facing a team not in that position.

We haven't seen that since 1991 in a single week.

I'll say that again.

No teams off a loss of more than one possession facing a team not.

So, Evan, Mahomes is a dog or what do you got?

... now rookie left tackle, brand-new third-string right guard

Yeah.

My, my thing is this.

Week to week, I always look to fade teams off huge scoring outputs 45% lifetime.

So that's at least one thing.

May coming off, like, a 99 percentile game.

Like, hard to really be as good as he was last week against the Raiders.

[laughs]

Y- can you confirm those? Or you have anything on this game?

Amazing so far, Stuck.

You could do my job.

Yeah, those are both correct.

Uh, Dallas has gone to, uh, over in 10 straight.

Longest streak since, of course, Dallas.

Uh, they own the record.

Evan, what are you looking at for your favorite bet?

five or ten yards downfield you went over five with a pick but

i'm looking at it right now over two uh pff so you look look at it however however you're looking at it doesn't matter the way throwing downfield to me it's going to be different this week When you're facing the Colts defense, that obviously should be motivated based on how bad they played against Baltimore.

And obviously a terrible performance, but I do think a little bit of extra time.

I think Daniel Jones should look better in Week 2.

Also, some injuries on Casey's defense.

You guys talked about the dogs in Week 2.

I mean, that stuff – I mean – Seven and nine ATS last year.

Anything with an under in week two with teams scoring over 30 or just in general?

Where would this rank if the Knicks, from a future standpoint, win the title?

So the Knicks from a future standpoint is a bit of a different scenario to look at because entering the season, they weren't that high to win the title.

It was entering the playoffs that everyone kind of jumped off the boat, which is interesting.

So 22 to one entering the playoffs.

Now we've seen looking at the list right now, seven teams since 1976 area.

Okay.

Enter the playoffs at 20 to one or longer.

Go ahead.

Where would this rank if the Knicks, from a future standpoint, win the title?

So the Knicks, from a future standpoint, is a bit of a different scenario to look at because entering the season, they weren't that high to win the title.

It was entering the playoffs that everyone kind of jumped off the boat, which is interesting.

So 22-1 entering the playoffs.

Now, we've seen, looking at the list right now, seven teams since 1976 area, okay, enter the playoffs at 20-1 or longer.

None won the title.

One went to seven games.

Go ahead.

Now, having said that though, what do you have overall for San Antonio in this kind of position after a loss bouncing back?

Yeah, they do their job.

Uh, I mean, they're...

So far this postseason when they've trailed in the series, three and oh straight up, three and oh against the spread, it hasn't even been that close, right? A 38-point win, you've got 21, 27-point wins.

They've really done their job.

And then you look more broadly, 22 and six straight up, 16 and three straight up at home in that spot.

And then you look since mid-January, 14 and one straight up as well.

Where, where would this rank if the Knicks from a future standpoint win the title?

Uh, what jumps out to you about the Dolphins?

Yeah, this one's tough just because of net rest.

Now, this is just net rest versus opponent, right? So if you have a plus two advantage in one game, you're gaining plus two in this area.

And for the season, Miami is a minus 13, which would be four worse than any team in the NFL.

And I did a quick dig.

Since 2002, division realignment, there's only one other team that's been worse than minus 13 entering a year, and it was 2020 COVID.

So this is kind of out of the blue and terrible for them, considering they had that low of a win total anyway.

Uh, who are some coaches, Evan, historically who have fared well early on in the season against the spread?

Evan, what do you, what do you think the team that will shift the most based on the moves?

Uh, I don't really think too much other than, like, Crosby has really happened so far that would impact it to that degree.

Like, just going up and down, you know, usually one player, it's usually a group of players or a unit or something like that that could potentially try to move a win total.

It doesn't really...

Like, it, I'm looking at some odds at a sportsbook in terms of movement from March 1st to, like, today, and w- some team, most teams have had, uh, numbers added to their, uh, value, like the Titans went from 100 to 125.

So did the Panthers.

Not much has changed even based off what we happened, but I, the Ravens were 12 to 1, now 10 to 1.

Evan, what about you?

You know what? Fuck you and fuck Matt Mitchell.

I, I just, to me, it's a little bit of an overvalued situation.

I think his odds are kind of baked into what he brings to the table.

Uh, obviously rushing, obviously receiving, the returning.

Like, there's different ways for him to impact this game, and Seattle's special teams...

Like, if you were to rank the six units in this game, Seattle's special teams is very much near the top.

So e- especially compared to maybe what New England has brought to the table, even though they haven't been as bad as, like, say, the Rams.

But give us the other side.

You know what? Fuck you, and fuck Matt Mitchell.

I, I just...

To me, it's a little bit of an overvalued situation.

I think his odds are kind of baked into what he brings to the table.

Uh, obviously rushing, obviously receiving, the returning, like, there's different ways for him to impact this game, and Seattle's special teams...

Like, if you were to rank the six units in this game, Seattle's special team is very much near the top, so e- especially compared to maybe what New England has brought to the table, even though they haven't been as bad as, like, say, the Rams.

So from just a Super Bowl MVP standpoint, I feel like one of the interesting ones, when you just look at the board, is Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

These are great on-field trends, not steeped in history, that I think we can activate against, but give us the other side.

I need you to tell me why I should believe some trends and which ones are more important to me.

Personally, in my opinion, I am the best storyteller, I say.

I can really push you any direction you want to go.

I don't want to go a direction.

I want you to believe the trends I need to follow.

Whoa, I'm trying to set up here.

If you want to deal with Evan, this guy is brutal.

I had heard

Um, but explain like, as a thesis for this episode, what does the death of the underdog mean, exactly?

I just think so, I mean, PASPA, May 14th, 2018, since that moment, I think we've seen a little bit of a shift.

And I tried to do it in three simple bullets.

So bullet one would be widespread legalization of sports betting beginning in late 2018, 2019, kind of changes the game a little bit.

And, and that leads to underdogs starting off actually performing well early during this PASPA era of new legalization across many states in the US.

So about two to three years, you see an increase in ATS win percentage for certain underdogs across, you know, some of the sports, the majority of one, uh, of them.

So in the NFL, this also coincided with huge favorites and larger spreads, at least initially.

Uh, can you give us some examples where other, sort of, conventional gambling wisdom is now losing bettors' money?