And there's this kind of, it's a little incestuous to know who to believe.

Even the investors don't know what to believe.

We're working at Newcomer on a sort of anonymous survey of 25 top venture capitalists.

Basically, do you think it's a bubble? Blah, blah, blah.

These are people on the Midas list who have their own funds, serious VCs.

We haven't released the report yet, but a lot of them think there will be a bubble at some point, you know, it is like, but they're trying to get the timing right.

You know, if your job is to deploy capital and you wait out, you know, famously financial types realize that a lot of the money gets made in the last year or so of the bubble, you know, and like making the right plays when a lot of, uh, appreciation is happening.

Yeah, Tim

It's, it's, it's a little incestuous to know who to believe.

Well, even, even the investors don't know what to believe.

I-- we're working, uh, at Newcomer on a sort of s- anonymous survey of like 25 top venture capitalists.

You know, basically, you know, "Do you think it's a bubble?" Blah, blah, blah.

You know, these are people on, you know, the Midas List who have their own funds, serious VCs.

And, you know, we haven't released the report yet, but a lot of them think there will be a bubble at some point.

You know, it is like-- But they're trying to get the timing right.

But when it comes to tech, there are a lot of places in China, whether it's Shanghai or Shenzhen or Tianjin or Chengdu or wherever you go, that just feels like the future in a way that we don't.

Yeah.

But we, we don't really put much behind a paywall because it's sort of meant to be read, and so then it's not a very good like subscription driver.

It's more just like brand building awareness influence.

And so, so really the challenge of any list is are you gonna put it behind the paywall? And for the most of the, most of the time you wouldn't-

Yeah.

And so I think they're good for brand and like list building, but not great for subscriptions.

Whereas putting like documents or behind the paywall, you're gonna get this resource of companies that you might invest in or whatever, you know.

Behind a paywall, you know what you're paying for, and so people are just much more likely to convert.

Um, and I, I suppose to, to my earlier point, is there enough capacity, enough appetite to support m- three massive IPOs, let alone get them to 2030 with several hundred billion dollars before they even start seeing any returns at all?

Uh, this is coming from a former Bloomberg reporter who covered the markets and, you know, fairly, uh, even-keeled.

It's insane.

It's like an insane amount of money to ex- to expect to find out, and I'm deeply worried that there's this effort to sort of like rush, uh, the indexes and basically get onto, you know, the S&P 500 and bas- so that, you know, basically all our assets are invested before anyone's really, like, done an independent assessment of these companies.

I mean, I'm most worried about SpaceX.

Um, I just...

I mean, the revenue multiple seems like it's gonna be crazy.

What do you make of the analysis that Anthropic versus OpenAI is kind of just a proxy war between Microsoft and Amazon and, and also to some extent Google?