Skip to main content

Eric Longenhagen

FanGraphs Lead Prospect Analyst covering MLB minor league and international player evaluation.

Jul 14, 2026

38:36
So do you wanna talk about those four guys and maybe just some of the dynamics of the first round?
38:41
Yeah, sure.
38:42
So, uh, it was generally assumed that there were, like, a top four to five or six, depending on who you talk to, players in the class, with the top three being Rock Chalowski, the shortstop from UCLA, Grady Emerson, a high school shortstop from Texas, and then Vaughn Lackey, the catcher from Georgia Tech.
39:03
And Rock and Emerson had been up at the top of this class basically the whole time.
39:10
I had Rock towards the back of the first round when he was coming out of high school.
39:13
He's a Hamilton High School kid in Arizona.
39:16
Um, and then Emerson, last summer, was generally regarded as clearly the best guy, maybe he had a chance to go first, uh, if not, like, definitely a top five type of player.

22 MINS LATER

61:08
Are there teams that as, you know, they sort of progress through their draft, you thought, "Hey, this, this group had a really good class," even if some of that quality was of the depth variety or guys who came later in the, you know, the second or third or fourth round?
40:04
First off, do you think this guy can stay in center field? And, and how, how much does that, like, if that is possible, is, is that put him on a whole other stratosphere? Where do you end up seeing him and like, like what's, what is his offensive upside?
40:18
Yeah.
40:19
The, the Florentino profile is super interesting because he's got this like glorious uppercut swing and so much of his contact is in that like optimal between, you know, 10 and 30 degrees of launch window.
40:36
And so he is gonna get to the power that he develops.
40:40
Um, he's a pretty big 19-year-old kid.
40:43
He's, you know, like 6'3", probably like 210 right now.
40:46
Um, I don't think he's gonna stay in center field.

16 MINS LATER

TylerHOST
56:26
Tell me why I should believe in him.
62:38
So can you recall a comp? He's definitely one of the most promising prospects you have ranked, but just in terms of how quickly he ascended to that position.
62:49
I think the only couple of comparisons are when Vladdy Jr. and Wander Franco went to the Appalachian League and both really destroyed it.
63:02
Just for anyone this young, entering pro ball, there are aspects of their skill set that are black boxes.
63:10
You just don't know how things are going to go.
63:13
And for Griffin, that was true in a couple of ways.
63:17
One on defense, because, you know, when you're watching Connor Griffin in high school, in the environment that matters most, which is like with Team USA during Team USA trials on the showcase circuit at like perfect game, All-American, and where the other 40 guys around are the best 17, 18-year-olds in the country, or at some of the international competitions like on the planet.
63:43
The apples to apples, these guys in that space is really important.

33 MINS LATER

96:23
But I thought Eric's case for ranking him that high in spite of that was interesting and maybe something that listeners would like to hear.
62:34
So Eric, you've been doing this a lot longer and better than I have, so can you recall a comp? He's definitely one of the most promising prospects you have ranked, but just in terms of how quickly he ascended to that position.
62:49
I think the only couple of comparisons are when Vladi Jr. and Wander Franco went, you know, to the Appalachian League and, and both really destroyed it.
63:02
Just for anyone this young entering pro ball, there are aspects of their skill set that are black boxes.
63:10
You just don't know how things are gonna go.And for Griffin, that was true in a couple of ways.
63:17
One, on defense, because, you know, when you're watching Connor Griffin in high school in the environment that matters most, which is like with Team USA during Team USA trials on the showcase circuit at, like, you know, perfect game, All-American, and, you know, where the other 40 guys around are the best 17, 18-year-olds in the country, or at some of the international competitions, like, on the planet.
63:43
You know, the, it's apples to apples, these guys, in that space is really important.
63:48
And in Griffin's case, he was playing right field.

33 MINS LATER

96:23
But I thought Eric's case for ranking him that high in spite of that was interesting and maybe something that listeners would like to hear.
27:09
Yeah, I think...
27:14
I think that Schultz definitely, you want to see him push aggressively if things are going better.
27:22
He's an end of 2026 player.
27:25
40-man timeline guy.
27:26
He's absolutely the sort of prospect who should come up towards the end of the year when you can retain his rookie eligibility into 2027 while also having given him a nice venti cup of coffee at the big league level just for him to get his feet wet.
27:42
You just give yourself the best chance of getting a draft pick for his performance in 2027 if you time it that way.
27:48
And Smith is on his natural timeline independent of his performance is also You know, like, as a year following that, where he's post-2027, 40-man ad.

12 MINS LATER

39:36
What are you hoping to see from their first year as professionals?
2:50
Um, what happened? [chuckles]
2:54
Yeah, I mean, he's basically been better in every facet of baseball than I thought he'd be from jump.
3:05
Um, entered pro ball basically with, like, concerns about how much contact there would be, indecision about where he was gonna fit on defense, and, you know, he more or less solidified, especially on the defensive side.
3:21
Like, what he's doing at shortstop I think is very positive.
3:25
Is he gonna have s- you know, more strikeouts than, than an average big league hitter? Probably, but not to the degree that it's gonna be detrimental for his overall offensive success.
3:36
And so we're talking about, like, you know, a monster tooled guy who's actualized that stuff pretty quickly.
3:43
And yeah, I think, you know, I have him in my top two now.
4:43
Tell, tell us a little bit about him.
35:26
So if you're a big league team, why would you put, you know, a nine-figure deal on a guy that might hit you 40, but he also might strike out 30 to 40% of the time and not hit you 40 homers?
35:37
Yeah, I think, you know, just to cite it specifically, I'll do my Tony Kornheiser now, where I look at my notes so I get it right.
35:43
But, uh, but yeah, like between 2023 and 2025, so this is like a multi-year sample, which I wanted to take with Murakami because he was... he's been hurt a bunch for the last 12 months.
35:52
2024 ended with injury.
35:54
He had multiple throughout 2025.
35:57
You know, it's a 64% contact rate overall.
36:00
Uh, against fastballs, it's 71% contact rate.

7 MINS LATER

42:34
The ceiling is super high, he just hasn't tapped into it the last few years.

We value your privacy

We use cookies to understand how you use our platform and to improve your experience. Click “Accept All” to consent, or “Decline non-essential” to opt out of non-essential cookies. Read our Privacy Policy.