
Eric Heginbotham
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Jul 11, 2026
Eric Heginbotham: How China Could Take Taiwan Without Firing a Shot - And Why It Could Catastrophically Backfire
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22:15

Dominik PreslHOST
But I was thinking that a good way for people to, uh, get an idea of what it would l- look like and what are the challenges for both sides, and what are the possible, um, uh, possible decisions for both sides to take, maybe if you could kind of pick one representative sort of base case scenario that's not the worst case or not the best case, not the extreme one, but one that you think kind of most plausibly describes what could actually happen, and maybe walk us through that from how it starts to then how it ends in your simulation.

Eric HeginbothamGUEST
Uh, with your permission, Dominic, maybe I would, maybe I would, uh, you know, sort of speak to the methodology and this matrix that you m-mentioned just briefly.

Eric HeginbothamGUEST
So now I'm gonna maybe apologize to viewers here and say that this exercise as a whole is much more difficult to explain.

Eric HeginbothamGUEST
It was certainly much more difficult to organize than was the invasion scenario.

Eric HeginbothamGUEST
So if you ask people what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan looks like, you know, you'll get some variations.

Eric HeginbothamGUEST
Does China land in the north or the south? You know, how do they use their airborne forces? But it all looks pretty similar.
9 MINS LATER

Dominik PreslHOST
And w- do, do you think, uh, you know, get- getting back to my original question of d- depending if you think that's a good way to think or talk about it, of the base case scenario and how would it look like for all the, um, all the parties involved from sort of the beginning to, to where the simulation ended?