Emmanuel Cau
2
APPEARANCES
2
PODCASTS
012
DEC 30
JAN 6
JAN 13
JAN 20
JAN 27
FEB 3
FEB 10
FEB 17
FEB 24
MAR 3
MAR 10
MAR 17
MAR 24
MAR 31
APR 7
APR 14
APR 21
APR 28
MAY 5
MAY 12
MAY 19
MAY 26
JUN 2
JUN 9
JUN 16
JUN 23
JUN 30
JUL 7
JUL 14
JUL 21
JUL 28
AUG 4
AUG 11
AUG 18
AUG 25
SEP 1
SEP 8
SEP 15
SEP 22
SEP 29
OCT 6
OCT 13
OCT 20
OCT 27
NOV 3
NOV 10
NOV 17
NOV 24
DEC 1
DEC 8
DEC 15
DEC 22
DEC 29
JAN 5
JAN 12
JAN 19
JAN 26
FEB 2
FEB 9
FEB 16
FEB 23
MAR 2
MAR 9
MAR 16
MAR 23
MAR 30
APR 6
APR 13
APR 20
APR 27
MAY 4
MAY 11
MAY 18
MAY 25
JUN 1
JUN 8
JUN 15
JUN 22
JUN 29
JUL 6
JUL 13
JUL 20
JUL 27
AUG 3
AUG 10
AUG 17
AUG 24
AUG 31
SEP 7
SEP 14
SEP 21
SEP 28
OCT 5
OCT 12
OCT 19
OCT 26
NOV 2
NOV 9
Sep 1, 2026
European equities heat up
2:58
3:08
3:13
3:23
3:28
P
2:49Patrick CoffeyHOST
So are we now entering a phase where earnings growth has to take over from valuation expansion to keep these European stocks going up?

Emmanuel CauGUEST
Well, maybe I should have been a bit more nuanced here, Patrick, because multiples have went related that much this year and do not look that extended.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
In fact, European equities have largely performed in line with strong earnings.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
But yes, in the current regime of higher for longer range, which by the way of fixed income strategists expect to continue, it is hard to see valuations doing the heavy lifting.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
Although, as long as yields are going up for the right reason, it should not be a constrained valuation.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
But yes, we are working a fine end here, given all the moving parts, with fiscal dominance and higher-term premium becoming a bigger contributor to the rise in yields.
P
6:09Patrick CoffeyHOST
So if you're pitching European equities to a global investor today, What do you think is the strongest argument for them owning more European equities rather than simply buying more American equities? Well, let's be
Why War Isn’t Spooking Wall Street—Yet
3:27
3:33
3:45
3:57
4:03
4:15
Luke VargasHOST
And that includes triggering a swift policy response, pushing, in particular, the IEA to release all of this oil.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
I think this is part of the toolbox, but I guess what we can conclude from Trump communication in the last couple of days is that the oil price has touched his pain threshold.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
So that was already seen a year-- a week ago when Trump was starting to talk about this de-escalation after oil price went above one twenty dollar.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
We need to see the other parties, whether it's Israel or Iran, willing to support this de-escalation effort.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
So I think this is where we have a bit of question mark about whether the market is too complacent about, uh, the outcome of this conflict and whether you could get the situation to worsen before it gets better.

Emmanuel CauGUEST
So I think what we said is that typically for a thirty percent move up in oil, we had about ten to fifteen percent drop in equity market, and so far, the global equity market is down only four percent.