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Emmanuel Cau

Emmanuel Cau

Sep 1, 2026

2:49
So are we now entering a phase where earnings growth has to take over from valuation expansion to keep these European stocks going up?
2:58
Well, maybe I should have been a bit more nuanced here, Patrick, because multiples have went related that much this year and do not look that extended.
3:08
In fact, European equities have largely performed in line with strong earnings.
3:13
But yes, in the current regime of higher for longer range, which by the way of fixed income strategists expect to continue, it is hard to see valuations doing the heavy lifting.
3:23
Although, as long as yields are going up for the right reason, it should not be a constrained valuation.
3:28
But yes, we are working a fine end here, given all the moving parts, with fiscal dominance and higher-term premium becoming a bigger contributor to the rise in yields.
3:37
So it is very much earning that matter for equities.
6:09
So if you're pitching European equities to a global investor today, What do you think is the strongest argument for them owning more European equities rather than simply buying more American equities? Well, let's be
3:27
And that includes triggering a swift policy response, pushing, in particular, the IEA to release all of this oil.
3:33
I think this is part of the toolbox, but I guess what we can conclude from Trump communication in the last couple of days is that the oil price has touched his pain threshold.
3:45
So that was already seen a year-- a week ago when Trump was starting to talk about this de-escalation after oil price went above one twenty dollar.
3:53
Obviously, it's not just about him tweeting about the end of the conflict.
3:57
We need to see the other parties, whether it's Israel or Iran, willing to support this de-escalation effort.
4:03
So I think this is where we have a bit of question mark about whether the market is too complacent about, uh, the outcome of this conflict and whether you could get the situation to worsen before it gets better.
4:15
So I think what we said is that typically for a thirty percent move up in oil, we had about ten to fifteen percent drop in equity market, and so far, the global equity market is down only four percent.
4:45
What else?

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