So to start off, using the New York Fed's estimate, what caused the term premium to decline from about five hundred basis points in the mid-'80s, according to the model, to close to zero in 2006? Why were investors becoming gradually more comfortable with less of a premium on top of their Fed policy expectations over that time?

You know, our model is, is a statistical model which cannot directly speak to that question, but of course we can use the model like term premium and, and relate it, correlate it with, uh, observables.

And the literature, uh, has pointed to several drivers of the reduction or compression of term premiums o- over that period.

Inflation uncertainty, for example, is a, is a prominent explanation.

So since the early 1980s when inflation was really high, inflation uncertainty gradually came down.

You know, in the US, the Volcker, uh, disinflation period, monetary policy as a result became more predictable, so short rates weren't as volatile, uh, as they used to be.

And so the uncertainty about the future path of policy rates, which is a key driver of the term premium, uh, came down, and so, uh, with this, uh, long-term bonds became less risky investments, and so the term premium declined.

So what does it even mean for the term premium to be negative, and, and why did this happen?