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Elizabeth Thomas

American egyptologist

Oct 15, 2026

6:02
Mm-hmm.
6:03
And I decided that the tenure was the right trade for a couple reasons.
6:07
Neither of them are a bad trade, let me be clear.
6:09
But I decided the tenure was the, the right trade for a couple reasons.
6:13
First of all, you have a little less volatility in holding the bond directly.
6:17
You can always hold the bond to maturity, which I don't intend to do.
6:20
But you can always hold it to maturity and get par back.

5 MINS LATER

11:31
Mm-hmm
9:42
And that's what we're seeing play out.
9:43
I think it does eventually matter, but here's a point that I made last week.
9:48
I believe it was last week on Market Call, this balance by extremes.
9:52
So on one side of the portfolio, this is what I'm doing in my personal portfolio right now.
9:57
On one side of the portfolio, I'm all in, all in on software, all in on semiconductors, all in on cybersecurity, all in on AI.
10:05
Weighted to that length.
10:07
And then on the other side of my portfolio, as I've mentioned and I've been very clear about, I've started a position in the 10-year treasury, I initiated another position in gold, and I've got commodities in there.

8 MINS LATER

18:17
But sort of thoughts on where we are in the banks, given the yield curve seemingly flattening a bit, given the comments out of Brian Moynihan, and now given this concern around AI, that somehow that's going to create tremendous headwinds for financial institutions.
18:39
Did you tell somebody?
18:40
No.
18:41
I was scared.
18:43
Like, I don't wanna tell my parent that a grown man kissed me, and I don't wanna tell friends that a grown man kissed me.
18:49
I felt guilty.
18:50
Like, I'm not saying he started it, but I mean, I was 15, you know, he's a grown man.

49 MINS LATER

67:47
He told you you had to go.
67:49
He said if he couldn't have me, he'd kill himself.
15:07
Thoughts on that?
15:08
Yes.
15:08
So we have CPI coming out on Wednesday, Wednesday the 14th, and then PPI is the following day.
15:15
So if everybody recalls, the PPI report last month was pretty upsetting because it was over 6%, and I believe for the month before that, over 6% as well, still expected to be 6.2%.
15:28
for this reading, which is for the month of June, CPI is expected to be 3.8% for the month of June.
15:35
Now, if CPI comes in at 3.8, that would be down from 4.2, which is what it sits at right now for the month of May.
15:43
If this war has actually de-escalated and we don't go back into really high oil prices, I am of the mind that CPI probably has already peaked.

10 MINS LATER

26:10
But in the final few minutes we have here, what has piqued your curiosity as July is in full throttle here?
3:15
But my question to you to start things off, the importance of it, and depending on how you want to look at it, how well it trades, how well the media covers it, all the different aspects that go into a highly anticipated IPO.
3:28
I mean, immeasurable.
3:29
The importance of this is absolutely immeasurable.
3:32
I think this may end up being one of the biggest, if not the biggest, market story of the year if we take things like macro and other exogenous shocks out of it.
3:41
So just for anybody who hasn't been following the numbers, this company is going public at $1.75 trillion, going public at a mega cap valuation, which is wild.
3:51
The other thing that is important about it is that only 5% of the shares are actually going to be available as free floating.
3:58
So $1.75 trillion valuation, but only 5% of the shares are actually going to be made available in the trading.
6:23
And to your point, maybe he's entitled to, given what he's done.
12:17
So what's out there that could potentially be conc- 'cause there's always something
12:21
somethingYeah, so I mean, obviously we don't know what's coming until it hits us, but a couple things.
12:27
So for the market, and it's different what's out there for the market versus what's out there for the economy.
12:32
For the market, if CapEx spending takes a hit or if we see a slowdown or some cracks in the story of just spending hand over fist and optimism in AI, that takes the market down for obvious reasons.
12:43
But so far, again, no signs of that, and even earnings growth in the first quarter almost doubled expectations that it was at the end of March, which is absolutely remarkable.
12:54
So we're sitting right now at 25% year-over-year earnings growth for the first quarter, which is bananas, okay? So the fundamentals are not showing any signs of cracking right now.
13:05
For the economy, especially for the labor market, things like small cap employment, if that starts to crack, and, and what do you watch for that? You watch things like small business optimism.

8 MINS LATER

20:54
It's all about revenue growth and earnings growth.

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