How does he balance that need, that desire for so many people on the left, the base, not just the members, because they got to feel like they want a pound of flesh.

The key is to recognize who your target audience is.

And the target audience is the voters in the middle who elected and gave the Democrats, I guess, a 30-seat gain in the House.

These are all moderates in swing districts.

And if you govern for the base, you risk losing all the hard-fought gains of Tuesday.

So if I was advising Hakeem Jeffries, which I most assuredly am not, I would tell him to look to the swing voters who ultimately will decide this election rather than be subject to the pressures and vagaries of far-left

The base of the Democratic Party would allow Hakeem Jeffries and or Chuck Schumer to cut a deal.

I think the base would, I'm not sure Schumer and Jeffries want to or will be inclined to do it.

so so hakeem jeffries has a balancing act i i agree with you 100 i mean the message is clear the american people were like we don't like what's happening we're willing to give the other guy a chance but hakeem jeffries has a base that says we want to go after this guy how does he balance that that need that desire for so many people on the left the base not just the members because they got to feel like they want a pound of flesh

The key is to recognize who your target audience is.

And the target audience is the voters in the middle who elected and gave the Democrats, I guess, a 30-seat gain in the House.

These are all moderates in swing districts.

And if you govern for the base, you risk losing all the hard-fought gains of Tuesday.

So if I was advising Hakeem Jeffries, which I most assuredly am not, I would tell him to look to the swing voters who ultimately will decide this election rather than be subject to the pressures and vagaries of far-left

The base of the Democratic Party would allow Hakeem Jeffries and or Chuck Schumer to cut a deal.

I think the base would, I'm not sure Schumer and Jeffries want to or will be inclined to do it.

Yeah, what do you think?

Well, I think it was two things.

I think it was a rejection of the president and his policies.

But I also believe that it was a rejection of Ken Paxton.

I think that on the Senate level, people had had enough.

And I think on the gubernatorial election, the alienation of Hispanic voters from the Republican Party and the presence of an attractive Latina on the Democratic side created an opportunity that led to an upset.

This is going to be a bumpy ride with guys like that.

Oh, I completely agree.

Yeah, what do you think?

Well, I think it was two things.

I think it was a rejection of the president and his policies.

But I also believe that it was a rejection of Ken Paxton.

I think that on the Senate level, people had had enough.

And I think on the gubernatorial election, the alienation of Hispanic voters from the Republican Party and the presence of an attractive Latina on the Democratic side created an opportunity that led to an upset.

This is going to be a bumpy ride with guys like that.

Oh, I completely agree.

Yeah, what do you think?

Well, I think it was two things.

I think it was a rejection of the president and his policies.

But I also believe that it was a rejection of Ken Paxton.

I think that on the Senate level, people had had enough.

And I think on the gubernatorial election, the alienation of Hispanic voters from the Republican Party and the presence of an attractive Latina on the Democratic side created an opportunity that led to an upset.

This is going to be a bumpy ride with guys like that.

Oh, I completely agree.

How do you see it?

You know, I think there is a very, very slight lead for El-Sayed.

I personally find him abhorrent, so I have no political bias.

In fact, if I have one, it's against him.

But I've seen every poll, and there have been, I don't know, 10, 15 polls in the last 10 days that have had him one, two points ahead.

But as a matter of statistics, It is not exactly or entirely clear that he will win.

Republicans tend to underperform their final poll numbers.

Do you agree with me that if you vote socialist, it's your fault if the country falls apart?

What do you see is happening there?

Well, look at all the polls.

There was a poll from the Detroit News that had El-Sayed at 51, Rodgers, I think, 45.

The bulk of the polls have been closer.

I don't think there have been any recently, if memory serves, where Rodgers has been anything better than tied.

I think he's been behind in virtually every poll.

I give El-Sayed a narrow advantage in this.

Would you be surprised if in the end they go Democrat?

How do you see it?

You know, I think there is a very, very slight lead for El-Sayed.

I personally find him abhorrent, so I have no political bias.

In fact, if I have one, it's against him.

But I've seen every poll, and there have been, I don't know, 10, 15 polls in the last 10 days that have had him one, two points ahead.

But as a matter of statistics, It is not exactly or entirely clear that he will win.

Republicans tend to underperform their final poll numbers.

Do you agree with me that if you vote socialist, it's your fault if the country falls apart?

How do you think things are playing right now for the House and Senate?

Well, I think it is likely that the Democrats win the House.

I think the odds are well over 75 percent as the president's approval rating drops.

Increasingly, congressional races become a problem.

referendum on the incumbent president, particularly in the middle of a term, and I think they win the House.

The Senate is up for grabs.

I think the momentum is slightly with the Democrats, but each of the key races are within the margin of error, Rita, so that cannot be said with any degree of certainty.

What is going on with Obama to go out there and sell his soul in Michigan?

How do you think things are playing right now for the House and Senate?

Well, I think it is...

Likely that the Democrats win the House.

I think the odds are well over 75%.

As the president's approval rating drops, increasingly congressional races become a referendum on the incumbent president, particularly in the middle of a term.

And I think they win the House.

The Senate is up for grabs.

A lot can happen, right?

How do you think things are playing right now for the House and Senate?

Well, I think it is likely that the Democrats win the House.

I think the odds are well over 75 percent as the president's approval rating drops.

Increasingly, congressional races become a problem.

referendum on the incumbent president, particularly in the middle of a term, and I think they win the House.

The Senate is up for grabs.

I think the momentum is slightly with the Democrats, but each of the key races are within the margin of error, Rita, so that cannot be said with any degree of certainty.

A lot can happen, right?

You were counting dinosaurs at the time, right?

Close.

Everybody had a dial-up phone.

Right.

And people...

No caller ID.

And people answered their phones and did polls.

What do you think about it? When you hear Kalshi or one of the others saying, aha, Amy Acton has a 63% chance, what does it mean to you?

It seems like the Republicans are getting some steam back in a couple key races.

That that is the case statistically.

The races certainly are within the margin of error, but I don't think there is enough evidence to say they're getting their steam back.

I think you're in a, we're in a situation where the Democrats are virtually certain to win the House, and about 55, 60% to win the Senate.

I mean, I think states like Kansas, uh, potentially Texas too, are, are more likely to go GOP than Democrat.

But again, Trump is battling record low approval ratings, and midterm elections tend to be referenda on the incumbent president, which is to say, Rita, my party, the Democrats, are not in good shape.

They have a lot of high negatives, and they have these socialists who are really out of step.

So, uh, Doug, what about, uh, Obama? Obama is going to kiss the ring of El-Sayed on Saturday.

But do you have a sort of a thought on who has the – it seems like the Republicans are getting some steam back in a couple key races.

That is the case statistically.

The races – certainly are within the margin of error, but I don't think there is enough evidence to say they're getting their steam back.

I think we're in a situation where the Democrats are virtually certain to win the House and about 55%, 60% to win the Senate.

I mean, I think states like Kansas, potentially Texas too, are more likely to go GOP than Democrat.

But again, Trump is battling record low approval ratings and midterm elections tend to be referenda on the incumbent president, which is to say, Rita, my party, the Democrats, are not in good shape.

They have a lot of high negatives and they have these socialists who are really out of step.

So, Doug, what about Obama? Obama is going to kiss the ring of El Sayed on Saturday.

More than 40... years of experience as a pollster and political consultant he served as an advisor to bill clinton and to the presidential campaign of michael bloomberg he knows this game he knows these numbers doug i want to hand you we covered some of the early numbers but i want your take on it how's it looking who's up who's down where's it going

well i think the democrats have a clear lead in the house and i'd be very surprised if they don't win a narrow majority there um In the Senate, most of the key races are within the margin of error.

Races like Texas, Ohio, Even Kansas have shown either a tie or a slight Democratic lead consistently, but by no means enough that those races can be called.

I should add Maine and probably Minnesota to that list as well.

The problem my party, the Democrats, have is while people are upset with Trump and the Trump administration, they don't necessarily see the Democrats buck as much better.

And in a lot of states where the Democrats are doing pretty well, the Democratic image is less good than the Republican image.

So we are really in a dynamic, competitive situation today.

You go ahead.

How's it looking? Who's up? Who's down? Where's it going?

Well, I think the Democrats have a clear lead in the House, and I'd be very surprised if they don't win a narrow majority there.

In the Senate, most of the key races are within the margin of error.

Races like Texas, Ohio.

Even Kansas have shown either a tie or a slight Democratic lead consistently, but by no means enough that those races can be called.

I should add Maine and probably Minnesota to that list as well.

The problem my party, the Democrats, have is while people are upset With Trump and the Trump administration, they don't necessarily see the Democrats buck as much better.

You go ahead.

Do you still trust them?

Bill, I'm old enough that I'm past the point of spinning.

Polling is now much more of an art than a science.

There is undercounts of Republicans in virtually every poll.

That being said, with the president's approval at or below 40%, there's a clear Democratic advantage.

But what you cited in your talking points is really an issue the Republicans need to stress, I think, which is that in a lot of these states, Flanagan, Troy Jackson in Maine, uh, El-Sayed in Michigan, these are radical socialists who do not stand for American values, nor for capitalism.

And if the Republicans can make that argument, they have a chance to hold the Senate.

Um, should he be honing his message in the same direction or, or a different direction? What do you think?

What do you think?

Well, I think the jury is still out.

We don't know.

There are very low approval ratings for President Clinton.

I'm sorry, early in the morning, President Trump.

But equally, as you alluded to, Larry, very low ratings for my party, the Democratic Party.

So it's not like you've got a popular Democratic Party and an unpopular Republican Party.

And he takes data and information from everywhere to reach his conclusions, I think.

Do you still trust them?

Bill, I'm old enough that I'm past the point of spinning.

Polling is now much more of an art than a science.

There is undercounts of Republicans in virtually every poll.

That being said, with the president's approval at or below 40%, there's a clear Democratic advantage, but what you cited in your talking points is really an issue the Republicans need to stress, I think, which is that in a lot of these states, Flanagan, Troy Jackson in Maine, uh, El-Sayed in Michigan, these are radical socialists who do not stand for American values nor for capitalism.

And if the Republicans can make that argument, they have a chance to hold the Senate.

Um, should he be honing his message in the same direction or, or a different direction? What do you think?

A- again, I would emphasize with specificity and precision what socialism will mean.

My goodness, one of the biggest complaints for past presidents, Democrat and Republican, has been, "Why don't we pay more attention to our own hemisphere?" I thought this was one thing that would be immune from Democratic criticism.

Bri- Brian, I am old enough to remember John F. Kennedy's inaugural address in 1960, where he spoke of the Alliance for Progress and the need to reach out, uh, in our hemisphere to promote democratic values everywhere.

I, I believe he was right then.

I believe that approach is right now, and I am very pleased that we beat the far left in elections, we who support capitalism, and those who are against, uh, in some of these nations, not all, but some, a countenancing of narco-terrorism.

So, uh, I, I stand with the United States-

You're not gonna get more housing if you freeze rents.

Well, not only are you not going to get more housing, you're gonna change our economic system because we don't have, uh, state central planning.

We don't ha- We have a, uh, you know, a, a federal system, and it is not for a US senator or any national elected official to determine what our economic policy should be on a national basis.

candidate? A candidate that had other problems? Yeah, Alexander Vindman was the guy with the gun.

Yeah, Vindman had other problems, but he outspent her, you know, 16 to 1.

And he had the official... party designation.

I think what's happened, and we've discussed it before, John and Rita, is the Democrats are moving far left, and it's the base of the party that is frustrated with Donald Trump and frustrated with the mainstream Democrats like Chuck Schumer, and they're moving away from what you and I many years ago embraced.

I mean, you know, this is mind-numbing.

Well, look, I...

She is trying to move to the center.

I'm no supporter of AOC.

candidate? A candidate that had other problems? Yeah, Alexander Vindman was the guy with the gun.

Yeah, Vindman had other problems, but he outspent her, you know, 16 to 1.

And he had the official party designation.

I think what's happened, and we've discussed it before, John and Rita, is the Democrats are moving far left, and it's the base of the party.

that is frustrated with Donald Trump and frustrated with the mainstream Democrats like Chuck Schumer, and they're moving away from what you and I many years ago embraced.

I mean, you know, this is mind-numbing.

Well, look, I...

She is trying to move to the center.

candidate? A candidate that had other problems? Yeah, Alexander Vindman was the guy with the gun.

Yeah, Vindman had other problems, but he outspent her, you know, 16 to 1.

And he had the official... party designation.

I think what's happened, and we've discussed it before, John and Rita, is the Democrats are moving far left, and it's the base of the party that is frustrated with Donald Trump and frustrated with the mainstream Democrats like Chuck Schumer, and they're moving away from what you and I many years ago embraced.

I mean, you know, this is mind-numbing.

Well, look, I...

She is trying to move to the center.

I'm no supporter of AOC.

candidate? A candidate that had other problems? Yeah, Alexander Vindman was the guy with the gun.

Yeah, Vindman had other problems, but he outspent her, you know, 16 to 1.

And he had the official... party designation.

I think what's happened, and we've discussed it before, John and Rita, is the Democrats are moving far left.

And it's the base of the party that is frustrated with Donald Trump and frustrated with the mainstream Democrats like Chuck Schumer.

And they're moving away from what you and I many years ago embraced.

I mean, you know, this is mind-numbing.

Well, look, she is trying to move to the center.

I'm, I mean, could you vote for that guy?

No, I could not vote for him.

I wanted Narive Shah, who, uh, I think ran second for governor, uh, a healthcare, um, moderate Democrat to be the nominee.

And why they chose Uh, this Troy Jackson, who has been called Plattner-lite, maybe he's Plattner similar, I don't know, but I couldn't vote for him either, and I don't think most right-thinking people, uh, who have been Democrats would and can vote for a man like, uh, Jackson or obviously Abdul El-Sayed.

It seems like the level of fear that this, this is now the old Democratic Party, and they dare not criticize it for fear that they will be primaried, like the way Mamdani got three incumbent Democrats off the ticket to replace them with these lunatics.

That's exactly right.

I mean, Sean, we've talked about this in the past, but the left is virulent with their criticism.

They do not in any way countenance any deviation from their philosophy, and they clearly have intimidated what is left of the mainstream moderate Democratic Party into this big tent strategy, which to me is capitulation to, uh, a brand of politics that is literally contrary to everything, as you said before, we've been brought up to believe and revere.