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Dirk Willer

Dirk Willer

May 29, 2026

11:45
So what are your thoughts on some of the core rates markets?
11:49
Yeah, I mean, I think it, rates will work when you need them, in a sense.
11:54
By that I mean, you know, rates didn't work in the last, I mean, I guess, one or two easing cycles, depending on how you count.
12:02
But that of course was soft landing.
12:04
And the rule of thumb usually for rates is that, uh, you know, supposed to be out of the rates trade when there's maybe one cut left or something like that.
12:11
So it's just a matter of getting three cuts.
12:14
You know, there is no proper, uh, rate cycle you can bet on.

16 MINS LATER

28:34
But, you know, I guess the question is, I mean, is there a way to have a framework around geopolitics, or is it just some kind of random shocks that you just have to, you know, worry about as they arise? [laughs]
27:54
Mm-hmm.
27:55
... making, in a sense, three bets when he diversified away from the dollar, right? He b- he bought euro, he bought CNY, and he bought gold.
28:03
And euro was not a particular promising bet in the end.
28:07
CNY was a good bet for him, but obviously China cannot bet on the CNY, and that leaves gold for China.
28:14
And so the...
28:15
I think in the very, very big picture, central banks are just very important for the gold market.
28:20
The gold market bottomed in the '90s when the Bank of England was done selling gold and will probably peak when the PBoC is done buying gold.
31:24
And we saw Michael Burry, who was like the poster boy for calling the AI bubble, close his fund this week, so.

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