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Dirk VanderHart

Dirk VanderHart

Oct 14, 2026

37:51
Could that be a factor in this race?
37:53
I mean, I, I've been very intrigued by that question, and I've probably written more about it than it needed to be.
37:58
But y- look, this has happened before, so Betsy Johnson was an outlier.
38:03
We, we have not seen in Oregon the kind of campaign where a non-affiliated candidate comes in, has millions of dollars to spend, has big names backing her, a, a lot of alliances that served her well, and yet, you know, a- as you said, only got about 8% of the vote.
38:18
More typically, when third-party candidates here have an effect, it's because the race between the two major parties is very, very close.
38:26
We have seen a couple instances in gubernatorial races where it looks quite likely that the presence of conservative third parties in the race did tilt it toward Democrats.
38:36
You know, if, if some of those con- conservative third party voters voted for the Republican, we might have had a, a, another, uh, Republican governor or two in the last 40 years, but we have not.
39:30
What, what are you gonna be watching down the home stretch here?
7:31
How is the issue shaping this race?
7:34
I, I think in my mind it's become al- almost a lens in which, like, the larger themes of the race, being, like, unpopular Trump, unpopular Kotek, are being sold or viewed.
7:43
So, so Kotek will, will tell voters that the affordability problem stems from Trump's tariffs or the Iran war, or cuts to Medicaid, rolling back, uh, Affordable Care Act subsidies, all that stuff, and she will say, "By proxy, Drazen is squarely to blame for these things.
7:58
Republican policies got us here.
8:00
That's why you are so unhappy right now." And Drazen says, "No.
8:03
You know, Oregon's cost concerns fall squarely on the shoulder of Democratic policies that have raised taxes or imposed environmental regulations on fuels that can hike costs or, or excessively regulated building things, and so housing is, is more costly." And, and a big part of her, her pitch is, "I'm gonna reduce regulation, I'm gonna fight costs, and this is all a Democratic problem." You know, probably both campaigns have a point to make and, and are not fully, uh, portraying the issue, I would say.
11:29
How would you describe the two campaigns' approaches to joint appearances a- and also media availability?
11:36
Yeah, I mean, let's start with the fact that there won't be a debate as far as we can tell in Portland this year for maybe the first governor's campaign or, or race in decades.
2:09
Hmm.
2:09
Drazan, I should say, is a r- a Republican state senator.
2:12
So, so Drazan had a narrow lead in that first blush.
2:15
Um, I, I should mention that the, the margin of error for this poll is 3.24%.
2:21
But then what our pollsters did is said, "Okay, hey, undecided voters, let's say, l- what candidate would you lean toward? We know y- you haven't made up your mind, but what candidate would you lean toward if you had to vote today?" And that gave us a little bit different result.
2:36
Um, i- in that result, we got 47% of respondents saying Drazan, 46% of respondents saying Kotek, 3 with Smith, that Pacific Green Party candidate, a- and four said, "No, I'm not gonna answer.
2:49
I, I'm still undecided." So basically, we came away with Christine Drazan, at that stage in the race when we were polling, had, we think, around a 1% lead.

7 MINS LATER

9:39
Hmm.
4:27
Talk about some of their contentions here.
4:31
Well, sure.
4:31
I mean, I think what I laid out, you know, I don't understand every bit of this case.
4:35
What I laid out in terms of the arguments made is largely it for this case.
4:39
You know, it's it's Election Day doesn't mean five days after Election Day.
4:43
Election Day means Election Day.
4:45
And you better have your vote in and counted on Election Day.
6:50
What did our top officials say about this ruling to you?

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