Dirk VanderHart
4
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Oct 14, 2026
Close races in Northwest states show interesting fault lines in the electorate
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Dirk VanderHartGUEST
I mean, I, I've been very intrigued by that question, and I've probably written more about it than it needed to be.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
We, we have not seen in Oregon the kind of campaign where a non-affiliated candidate comes in, has millions of dollars to spend, has big names backing her, a, a lot of alliances that served her well, and yet, you know, a- as you said, only got about 8% of the vote.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
More typically, when third-party candidates here have an effect, it's because the race between the two major parties is very, very close.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
We have seen a couple instances in gubernatorial races where it looks quite likely that the presence of conservative third parties in the race did tilt it toward Democrats.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
You know, if, if some of those con- conservative third party voters voted for the Republican, we might have had a, a, another, uh, Republican governor or two in the last 40 years, but we have not.
Breaking down the Oregon gubernatorial race
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Dirk VanderHartGUEST
I, I think in my mind it's become al- almost a lens in which, like, the larger themes of the race, being, like, unpopular Trump, unpopular Kotek, are being sold or viewed.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
So, so Kotek will, will tell voters that the affordability problem stems from Trump's tariffs or the Iran war, or cuts to Medicaid, rolling back, uh, Affordable Care Act subsidies, all that stuff, and she will say, "By proxy, Drazen is squarely to blame for these things.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
You know, Oregon's cost concerns fall squarely on the shoulder of Democratic policies that have raised taxes or imposed environmental regulations on fuels that can hike costs or, or excessively regulated building things, and so housing is, is more costly." And, and a big part of her, her pitch is, "I'm gonna reduce regulation, I'm gonna fight costs, and this is all a Democratic problem." You know, probably both campaigns have a point to make and, and are not fully, uh, portraying the issue, I would say.

Dave MillerHOST
How would you describe the two campaigns' approaches to joint appearances a- and also media availability?
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
Yeah, I mean, let's start with the fact that there won't be a debate as far as we can tell in Portland this year for maybe the first governor's campaign or, or race in decades.
Poll position: New poll shows a dead heat in Oregon governor's race
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Dirk VanderHartGUEST
Um, I, I should mention that the, the margin of error for this poll is 3.24%.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
But then what our pollsters did is said, "Okay, hey, undecided voters, let's say, l- what candidate would you lean toward? We know y- you haven't made up your mind, but what candidate would you lean toward if you had to vote today?" And that gave us a little bit different result.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
Um, i- in that result, we got 47% of respondents saying Drazan, 46% of respondents saying Kotek, 3 with Smith, that Pacific Green Party candidate, a- and four said, "No, I'm not gonna answer.
Dirk VanderHartGUEST
I, I'm still undecided." So basically, we came away with Christine Drazan, at that stage in the race when we were polling, had, we think, around a 1% lead.
7 MINS LATER
Supreme Court Upholds Late-Arriving Mail Ballots, Easing Oregon Election Fears
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4:31Dirk Vander HartGUEST
I mean, I think what I laid out, you know, I don't understand every bit of this case.
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4:35Dirk Vander HartGUEST
What I laid out in terms of the arguments made is largely it for this case.
D
4:39Dirk Vander HartGUEST
You know, it's it's Election Day doesn't mean five days after Election Day.

