What, what about Tom Lee?

Tom Lee, well, he, he did mention that after he gets to 5%, you know, like, what is he gonna do, you know? Um, he might go out the risk curve, right? Well, there, there are some rumors about this, and, uh, yeah.

So I mean, look, let's think about this.

So he's reaching 5%.

He just needs a couple hundred million, I think, to get there.

I think he has $400 million in cash already in the balance sheet that he can deploy somewhere else.

I think what he has in his head is how to increase ETH per share, and how to make this bag that he has accumulated worth the most he can.

So maybe you can start, Darren.

And

these hacks basically show you that there's a tail risk structure that, you know, retail and now increasingly institutions, they can't really underwrite anymore at all.

Like, why would you want, you know, reflexive crypto collateral that's stacked and other crypto collateral? You don't want that.

So I think... where things are kind of going is towards institutional RWA rails where the depositor has direct access to the issuer, basically.

And so I think any hack that happens in Wild West DeFi, I'll call it, is an argument for a count-on or an argument for, let's say, for a protocol that provides yield that's RWA related and it's not some kind of native weird, you know, it's, it's like

That's what's happening.

I think there's a clear effect that comes off of this, right? Which is that basically, Zach has raised the hidden cost of running this trade across every exchange where it has worked, right? So the fact that these CEOs have come out and have to respond, it basically means that the next low-flow squeeze setup basically carries some kind of non-zero response probability of some mid-trade day listing, some suspension, some other public call out by Zach.

I think that's a real change in expected value for these people that have been running these trades.

A lot more money to be made then, too.

Yeah, yeah.

I mean, I also think that the time to be doing posting is completely over.

There's really no edge in shouting that it's over louder than the next guy on CT. Yeah.

I think this is a time to, I'd say, one, enjoy Christmas, good vibes, and two, spend time researching because during pain and this kind of apathy that we're entering right now, this is really the most likely time for the market to create fundamental or even opportunistic kind of mispricings.

So maybe if you want to pull up the realized loss of short-term holders chart, I think that's an interesting one I saw on Twitter.

So We're obviously in tax harvest season.

So yeah.

So that's usually a sign that... it's almost over i'm still hearing people wanting to allocate to new ones there's always this hope that the new thing was going to launch super high for some reason people still want to gamble uh into these dads just they seem they want to gamble into you know tges

another interesting data point about that is that you know i've talked to a lot of funds that i've been deploying in this there are a couple super smart guys you know like joe nigger from republic and a couple other guys have made a ton of money there and are successful Most of the funds that have actually allocated DATs and I thought were reasonably early to the trade are near break even on this whole thing because it's a parallel.

Like a couple of these DAT trades ended up being super successful, like the M&Rs, all that stuff.

Most have been like complete fumbles.

So I think if the people that are deploying capital to DATs are seeing their books after like three, four months of just like obsessing over them and seeing like zero as a P&L or nearly negative, they're not going to deploy again.

them?

I mean, I guess this speaks for itself.

Yeah.

What were you seeing?

Yeah, I mean, I'll tell you exactly.

And, you know, there's this guy, Avi Feldman, who's a great portfolio manager.

He used to work with a golden tree and he's now a great friend who has this framework for allocation of capital, which is, you know, when people buy crypto, they're allocating to either momentum or value.

And your job as a trader is to basically allocate.

like know who's in the driver's seat and trade accordingly.

So if we take this framework to the current context and to the context a couple of weeks ago and ask that important question of like who's in the driver's seat, that's a useful kind of framework to kind of make that decision.

I mean, how much more can you really hope for in a short period of time? But I'd be curious to hear what your guys' thoughts are.

And What else is the bull case here?

I mean, yeah, exactly as you're saying, I think the main bull case is that these vehicles are actually taking supply off the market semi-permanently.

And that is the most important fact for ETH.

I think the fact that ETH is such a volatile asset, it means that Tom Lee can keep doing this for a little bit.

And at the end of this cycle, because it is a cycle, like this treasury theme is a cycle.

There's an early stage.

The early stage was Saylor and its clones on Bitcoin.

So Dim and the rest of you guys, do you consider this stuff when you're trading and deciding when to buy and sell? Do you think we could just be repeating what we did in 2021 and this could basically just be the top?