Knock, knock yourself out for 30 sec-

I'll knock myself out for 30 seconds.

I mean, at the point...

This is a good question.

At the point in which they knew that Bowers had this ACL or this MCL issue, how many best ball manias were still open? Is it 91% when they could have reported it? 90%, 91, 92.

So there, that's a, a marginal percentage of the contest that people were taking Brock Bowers at the worst imaginable price.

I, I just don't see how these things are not reported.

I thought you were gonna say Bowers, McBride or something.

Randers goes, I'll take – Someone's like, I will also

let my hair down.

I got to say – So I have a video coming out on my channel tomorrow wherein all my friends gave their fantasy football takes their favorite pick of the year.

Did you like mine? I thought yours was very funny, although it's going to end up maybe being kind of bad because the way I'm structuring it is we're going from reverse chronological order and average draft position, which means yours is first.

So some people are going to click off because they're going to be like, why are these guys joking around? But Nez's clip, spoiler, is Jameson Williams, and it's really good.

I would expect nothing else.

And legitimately convinced me on Jameson Williams.

I mean, something has to get, we are drafting all of these guys aggressively and they are one of the worst team totals, one of the worst win total outlooks of any team in the league.

Yeah.

Uh, my, my real answer at wide receiver is Burden.

Bur- Bur- he's just...

Like, he's gonna be a superstar.

We're gonna take him at the one, two turn next year.

He is gonna get...

I, I actually can't remember if we're, if I was doing this with you and Jacob last night or if this was on the, the one with Silva and those guys, but, like, he is getting the scam.

The Bateman line

He's a polarizing player in the fantasy community, but do we need to just sort of get over any draft priors and just start drafting him?

Yeah, I mean, I'm probably more willing to give up, like, to just be like, "Well, the, the prospect profile is no good," than many of my other, you know, fantasy football brethren.

Like, get into this with, like, Jacob all the time.

Like, Worthy, Golden, these bad profiles with the draft capital.

I mean, Stribling, very different style of profile, but still not a, a good profile.

To me, I'm like, yeah, we can ha- we can have, like, some degree of certainty.

Like, Gretch calls it, like, the 60/40 rule.

Are you looking to have the most exposure to Golden based on the cost of these three players? Or are you kinda mixing it up with your Green Bay exposure?

So I'm curious, who would you be targeting and how many would you be targeting?

So I would definitely take three.

I know that some of the sim based stuff will have you take four.

The reason why I would not add the fourth is you still have the I mean, not even I was gonna say you have the three years greater than two, but three is greater than one, right? So the maximum amount of tight ends you can start is two.

So you're guaranteed that 50% of your guys are not going to contribute to your lineup.

So I would still like to add in another wide receiver over there.

And I know that we are all so fascinated right now by not taking zeros in fantasy football, right? Like, oh, it's a big thing.

and you guys labeled him as a a small small hit uh potential small small hit small miss player but uh could could you see a world where jordan mason scores double-digit touchdowns this year just like if the vikings offense is actually like working this year and that's been kind of you know kevin o'connell has has made quotes of like yeah well if the quarterback is doing his job you know we'd like to improve the running game also and people don't really talk about that but the running game could also benefit isn't there a world in which you know the vikings are just much better offense and if they're capable of you know passing the ball maybe they're going to be able to then start running the ball a bit more effectively and jordan mason could benefit um did you see a world where jordan mason could could have you know kind of the the role that you're envisioning for the core across the merit where yeah he's not a pass catcher but he's uh getting a lot of yards and touchdowns on the ground

I told Davis how he's essentially to blame for this show's creation.

Yeah, I mean, I have a very adversarial relationship with probably about half of my audience.

Um, and you, you...

I mean, you obviously hit the nail on the head, which is that you do get, you get the constant...

And this is more of a baseball thing than it would ever be.

Although, I ha- I have noticed it is starting to creep into, like, big fantasy football.

Like, there's a big thread on the fantasy football Reddit right now that is like, "I ran the 17 most popular fantasy football podcasts through Claude.

But what is the unique value add to what I do that's not just a replica of what I already do?

Got any of those? How often, how often do you go, how often do you go on robust RB? Like three running backs early and then just say, "You know what? If these guys get injured, I'm screwed."

I do it quite a bit in best ball because the w- the way the market has adjusted is that the breakout profiles of guys that we used to get late now go early.

Like Tuton goes way ahead of Chris Rodriguez.

R.J. Harvey is the first draft at Broncos running back.

Um, Treveyon Henderson is a fourth round pick, and Ramondre Stevenson is a seventh round pick.

You know, f- five years ago, Treveyon Henderson would've been a ninth round pick.

I mean, Bishell Tuton i- in a, in, with, with Ch- this Chris Rodriguez contract, he would've been 14th round pick.

Give it to me.

Got any of those? How often, how often do you go, how often do you go on robust RB? Like three running backs early and then just say, "You know what? If these guys get injured, I'm screwed."

I do it quite a bit in best ball because the f- the way the market has adjusted is that the breakout profiles of guys that we used to get late now go early.

Like Tuton goes way ahead of Chris Rodriguez.

R.J. Harvey is the first drafted Broncos running back.

Um, TreVeyon Henderson is a fourth round pick, and Ramondre Stevenson is a seventh round pick.

You know, f- five years ago, TreVeyon Henderson would've been a ninth round pick.

I mean, Bishell Tuton i- in a, in...

Give it to me.

Right

... carry running back.

Where I think there is room for artistry, and maybe not even artistry, but for adjusting the inputs, is with the round 18 on DraftKings, round 19, round 20 picks, where a lot of what we are trying to accomplish globally right now is just avoiding zeros, 'cause, 'cause zeros are, are so bad, right? And what I am wondering is how sensitive the inputs and how sensitive the sim stuff would be to the adjustments.

Like if I said, if I, if I changed- I, let's, I don't know.

Who's a good input? If I changed the, um, the Ravens inputs marginally to give Adam Randall some chance of not only, obviously Derrick Henry being injured and Adam Randall being the lead running back for the Ravens, but also, I don't know, let's give him an 8% chance of just, like, eating into, like, taking Justice Hill's work 'cause he's just way better.

Converted wide receiver, big guy, should be able to handle, should be able to handle pass blocking.

You know, is that a situation where all of a sudden he is a total gem? I, I guess all spurred on by, you know, the, the Kyren Puka season, right? Where, where-

[laughs]

Thank you.

Um, I think the, the Minnesota Vikings backfield, you know, there's, there's like kind of like, okay, like if you could answer one question about how things would play out this season, I'm gonna think the Minnesota Vikings backfield is the most valuable if like you could know one stat line.

But it would be pretty valuable because KOC run games are like really well-designed.

They throw the ball to the running backs a good bit.

And Aaron Jones, I mean, anyone who has been a, um, you know, a frequenter of establishtherun.com over the years has, has seen Aaron Jones project as like the fifth best running back every single week in Fantasy Football.

And he's 31 years old, not sure, not sure his hamstring is ever gonna recover.

That's pretty good, dude.

I'll, I'll never forget the most, the most Rogered comment in the history of the Deposit Kingdom is some guy was like, it was June, and some guy [laughs] was like, "Hey, man.

Yeah

... where literally the whole first round would be running backs or whatever.

But in terms of, like, what we've learned about fantasy football, uh, like, with a modern scientific bent, this is, like, running backs could not be more expensive and still hew closely to anything we've actually learned about fantasy football in the last 10 years.

And there's a discount on the really, really good fantasy football tight ends because they weren't very good last year, 'cause people are scared.

You know, Bowers is a second round pick.

McBride is a third round pick.

Loveland is a fourth or fifth round pick.

Do you have a tight end?

What do you do then?

... w- uh, I mean, you know, time...

I, I think part of the going for the walk thing is actually just taking a second to be like, "This is non-productive time.

I'm allowing myself to have non-productive time in my day.

I am escaping the tentacles of feeling like everything I have to do has to be working towards a further goal, and I am just going and doing something that is just, like, letting my mind relax and not be chopping into a larger goal." I, I think that's part of it.

I mean, you could, you could...

You can get the same result.

Okay.

How do you typically handle that?

so at the beginning of the draft, like, I don't know, first six picks, seven picks or whatever, I'm actually going to be a little bit more sensitive to the value.

Um, like, Oh, you know, this guy's a round past ADP.

Uh, part of that is in best ball.

This doesn't matter as much in managed, but like unique combinations.

Uh, so in a big best ball tournament, if you're the only one who advanced a Puka Nakua Brock Bowers team, that is super valuable.

Cause those are two really high ceiling players who are just not paired together, uh, on rosters all that often you were also were just going to be you're actually applying like some wisdom of the crowd stuff there you're like okay in this specific room everyone has decided they don't want to draft I don't know Bucky Irving and I got Bucky Irving in the fourth round and I just think that's a mistake because I think the the wisdom in the P was probably better as it gets deeper into the draft.

What about rookies? Are there any rookies that you're particularly in on? Or if you just have any general comments around the way the market might be treating certain rookies and whether you agree or not?

Yeah.

Uh, I guess, I guess he did only score 12, but he then led the league in rushing.

I just have a very hard time in the first round when a running back is missing one of the three components of being an elite fantasy running back.

So to be an elite running back, you have to get goal line touches, you have to catch passes, and you have to be able to score fantasy points over expectation.

He clearly can do all three.

He was a very capable pass catcher.

His second year, he got 54 targets.

Oh, yeah.

So it's hard to kind of sell this one too much.

I mean, I'm kind of an unreliable narrator on James Cook because last year I was like, well, there's no way this dude scores 16 touchdowns again.

I guess he did only score 12, but he then led the league in rushing.

I just have a very hard time in the first round when a running back is missing one of the three components of being an elite fantasy running back.

So to be an elite running back...

You have to get goal line touches, you have to catch passes, and you have to be able to score fantasy points over expectation.

He clearly can do all three.

Below those guys, but still rock solid.

Not when you do.

Boost down.

Negative boost.

And you know what, Neil? justin jefferson man i don't care i don't care six thousand dollars this man dude he's too good he's having he's having this year from hell right so bad it took until this last week for puka nakua to get to averaging the same amount of yards per game for his career as justin jefferson it took nine straight weeks of justin jefferson crawling through shit for Puka Nakua to get to the same amount of yards per game.

We are talking about a singular talent at the position who we all just agreed McCarthy, he's like, he's figuring it out a little bit.

Like, and, and, Had one of those touchdowns counted from last week, either the one that called back by penalty or the one he caught, what would his ownership be had one of those touchdowns landed in the box score? 30%? He'd be the most owned wide receiver.

He'd be one of the most owned wide receivers of the slate if one of those touchdowns had counted.

If we're betting on efficiency from the Houston offense, I think he should be someone you're considering.

Not when you do.

Boost down.

Negative boost.

And you know what, Neil? Justin Jefferson, man.

I don't care.

I don't care.

$6,000? This man, dude.

If we're betting on efficiency from the Houston offense, I think he should be someone you're considering.

yeah, I

said, I said a bad ownership last time we did it.

Um, I, I really like golf because the golf stuff is more, is just as concentrated as the Ram stuff, but less expensive.

Like the combo salary of golf, St.

Brown and JMO is less than the combined salary of Puka and stafford and adams if you if you wanted to play that game to go like mega nuclear right um so i i really like the the golf stuff and um there's like if you use opto stuff you're gonna get a lot of guys i don't consider good plays like you're gonna get a lot of stroud you're gonna get a those decisions out of the hand of the computer this week and i'm saying i really only want to play the quarterbacks in the super high total games and trevor lawrence i am such a trevor lawrence apologist these days

Just in terms of the DraftKings and FanDuelish slate, what do you think of the running back position this week?

I mean, you better hope you pick right between Gibbs and CMC because one of them is getting 35, and if you don't have them, you're not going to win.

Gibbs in the better game environment, but with like...

yeah,

I said, I said a bad ownership last time we did it.

Um, I, I really like golf because the golf stuff is more, is just as concentrated as the Ram stuff, but less expensive.

Like the combo salary of golf, St.

Brown and JMO is less than the combined salary of Puka, uh, stafford and adams if you if you wanted to play that game to go like mega nuclear right um so i i really like the the golf stuff and um there's like if you use opto stuff you're gonna get a lot of guys i don't consider good plays like you're gonna get a lot of stroud you're gonna get a those decisions out of the hand of the computer this week.

And I'm saying, I really only want to play the quarterbacks in the super high total games and Trevor Lawrence.

I am such a Trevor Lawrence apologist these days.

Just in terms of the DraftKings and FanDuelish slate, what do you think of the running back position this week?

Davis, thoughts? I mean,

Jacoby Brissett is going to be my primary exposure quarterback because if you run your stuff and you just lock Brissett and Michael Wilson, you're going to get a ton of lineups with A-Chain and Jamar Chase and James Cook and A-Chain and Jamar because you're going to get a lot of Xavier Weaver and what's his name? Bakalia probably as well, assuming that these guys project for nine points.

I mean...

What some projection provider might do is bring up some guy I've never heard of, give him four points, give Elijah Higgins the backup tight end three points, give Tip Ryman a point and a half, and then those guys.

It just really depends on what the projection guys do in terms of the Sims.

I'd like to toss out Trevor Lawrence.

I know the Indianapolis Colts have all these great corners against man coverage now, but like...

Davis, any thoughts of the running back position?

Davis, thoughts? I mean,

Jacoby Brissett is going to be my primary exposure quarterback because if you run your stuff and you just lock Brissett and Michael Wilson, you're going to get a ton of lineups with A-Chain and Jamar Chase and James Cook and A-Chain and Jamar because you're going to get a lot of Xavier Weaver and... what's his name? Bakalia probably as well.

Assuming that these guys project for like nine points.

I mean, what some projection provider might do is bring up some guy I've never heard of, give him four points, give Elijah Higgins, the backup tight end, three points, give tip Ryman a point and a half.

And then, then those guys, it just really depends on what the projection guys do in terms of the Sims.

I I'd like to toss out.

Trevor Lawrence.

Talk some running backs, Davis, any thoughts of the running back position?

Any thoughts on wide receivers?

I mean, Luther Burden, I think, is like, this is actually a chance to kind of play it before you see it.

Because a lot of the times with these young guys, the first playing time spike will then meet the first production spike.

But that didn't happen in that game, mostly because the Bears just had a pretty conservative game plan, didn't throw it a ton.

They played a ton of 12 in that game.

Both Komet and Loveland played over 60% of the snaps.

Durham Smythe got in there for some 13 personnel.

Davis, any tight-end thoughts beyond Kelsey?

Any thoughts on wide receivers?

Luther Burden, I think, is like, this is actually a chance to kind of play it before you see it.

Because a lot of the times with these young guys, the first playing time spike will then meet the first production spike.

But that didn't happen in that game, mostly because the Bears just had a pretty conservative game plan, didn't throw it a ton.

They played a ton of 12 in that game.

Both Komet and Loveland played over 60% of the snaps.

Durham Smythe got in there for some 13 personnel.

Davis, any tight-end thoughts beyond Kelsey?

It was a lot of options.

Uh, I mean, it is just all Lamar Jackson for me, Lamar in a dome.

His projections are artificially deflated because the systems that are projecting him have a pretty poor four game rolling average for him, which is how a lot of these things work.

His props are a little bit lower than they would normally be because the projections just don't look that good but the reason they don't look that good is because he's been playing injured even even his sample uh from the game against the chiefs he was injured and that game finished the game with the injured hamstring he's now had he has played four quarters of half effort football in the last six weeks 10 days rest since then he's in a dome i i mean i i think you're gonna get lamar like eight percent this week i think you're gonna get zay flowers what was a flower is even going to crack 10%.

Well, Mark Andrews coming off a two touchdown game, crack 5% in any salary cap stuff.

Probably not.

It feels like literally an all time spot.

Where do you think you'll find yourself going at running back?

lot of options.

I mean, it is just all Lamar Jackson for me.

Lamar in a dome, his projections are artificially deflated because the systems that are projecting him have a pretty poor four game rolling average for him, which is how a lot of these things work.

His props are a little bit lower than they would normally be because the projections just don't look that good but the reason they don't look that good is because he's been playing injured even even his sample uh from the game against the chiefs he was injured and that game finished the game with the injured hamstring he's now had he has played four quarters of half effort football in the last six weeks 10 days rest since then he's in a dome i i mean i i think you're gonna get lamar like eight percent this week i think you're gonna get zay flowers what was a flower is even going to crack 10%.

Well, Mark Andrews coming off a two touchdown game, crack 5% in any salary cap stuff.

Probably not.

It feels like literally an all time spot.

Where do you think you'll find yourself going at running back?