So what do you wanna say about, uh, usage and demand? I'm assuming you probably have a lot to say about that.

[laughs] Well, we're getting to the end of, uh, the uncertainty around the size of the US crop.

There's still uncertainty out there.

We saw that in the October WASDE.

We'll see how this narrows up in, in the No- November report, and really it kinda takes us until January to really kinda close, close most of that and s- the door, most of that door on uncertainty around the production.

I think now we really have to start focusing around usage, and there's kinda two levels to usage.

One of them is bushels being moved, and the second piece is, uh, demand, and that's that relationship between how many bushels do we get moved and at what price level.

Are, are you surprised by that, or how do you assess some of that, I guess?

Um, are diesel prices expected to continue to stay at this high rate? Um, and if so, what does that mean long term for some of these management practices?

Well, I think the first thing to keep in mind here is, um, while the number is a bit of a sticker shock, it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

And so if you use inflation-adjusted diesel prices going back just twenty years, uh, this is the third time that we've been at these high levels.

And so I think part of it is, like, we, we need to kind of condition ourselves.

Just because we're shocked doesn't mean it's a statistical, uh, rarity.

We need to realize that we've, we've had to deal with high diesel prices in the past.

So that's one, uh, one implication here.

Can you go in-depth on that for us?

... before I let you start.

I wanna piggyback off what Brad shared earlier.

I think another key feature of the payments we're gonna get in October this year is that producers got the highest of the best programs.

And so we didn't have this guess and then get the payout.

We're gonna get the highest payment.

So I think if you think about the Corn Belt, we have some disappointing yields in southern Illinois, Indiana, parts of Ohio.

That's where these ARC payments are gonna be really big.

Guys, looking beyond the, the payment cycles that we've already talked about, do you think Congress has strengthened the farm safety net enough to respond to the financial challenges that farmers and ranchers are facing right now?

We're going to take a listen to a bit of that conversation right now, starting with some thoughts and perspective on ARC and PLC payments and what producers need to know.

Before I jump into some of the numbers.

I think we got to your point.

You rewind the tape to last summer to one big beautiful bill.

So for 2025 production year, we're going to see payments coming in the fall of 2026.

That's sort of the one that we're keeping our eye on.

And Congress changed the programs in the middle of the growing season.

Talk a little bit about that research that you guys just put out here at the end of July.

So maybe that's a good jumping off point for us.

Before I jump into some of the numbers, I think we gotta s- to your point, Zu, rewind the tape to last summer with the One Big Beautiful Bill.

So for 2025 production year, we're gonna see payments coming in the fall of 2026.

That's sort of the one that we're keeping our eye on, and Congress changed the programs in the middle of the growing season, and so they're gonna give producers the highest of the two payment programs.

So ARC versus PLC.

So you didn't have to, uh, get the right answer to that exam that year.

That risk management tool is gonna pay out whichever one was the, the best payable.

Talk a little bit about that research that, uh, you guys just put out here at the end of July.

So the way that we use this, why don't you walk us through how we would use this, David, and how you, how you came to look at this? And we've got some of our own Canadian numbers we wanna look at, and Eric's gonna talk about that when you, when you walk us through it.

Yeah, so farmland is a really important topic in the United States.

It's about 85% of the- The assets that farms have on the balance sheet, and we've seen a lot of appreciation over the last, uh, five years, over the last 15 years.

But really, uh, to Eric's point, um, there hasn't been many down years in the farm economy for farmland since, uh, the mid-1980s, and there's a reason why.

Um, but one of the things we wanna point out here is farmland affordability's gotten a little bit out of, out of reach for a lot of producers.

Uh, I think there's two areas where this comes up.

If a young producer's wanting to buy some land, it feels really pricey.

How are the big dogs doing in the US of A?